I can't see Hughes losing the belt right now, and not to GSP. MMA Math does not work so you can't necessarily compare GSP vs Trigg & Hughes vs Trigg to how the fight will go, here is a great example I've seen used before that proves MMA Math wrong.
Hughes beat Trigg 2 times
Trigg beat Hallman 2 times
Hallman beat Hughes 2 times
As I said, I can't see Hughes losing the title right now. I agree with most that GSP was winning their first fight until the sub, but the "dominance" in which he did it is a bit overrated IMO. Although the fight is a little foggy in my mind so I'd have to pull out my DVD to rewatch it for sure.