Yeah, Sherk has to take that one. Serra has decent standup, but Sherk's boxing skills are underrated. Sherk isn't a knockout artist, but he is very disciplined about keeping his hands up, defending, and setting up his wrestling.
On the ground, I just don't see Serra being able to sub him. I see it looking a lot like Sherk v. Franca, with Serra being a little bit harder to take down.
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