I think the really cool thing about dos Santos is the fact that he's a bonafide slugger who just goes in there to throw bombs at his opponent and ususally ends up knocking him out. I mean yeah, he trains in BJJ with Nogueira and Maia and is supposedly very talented on the ground, but that's irrelevent. He's a gunslinger who has finished everybody in front of him so far in the Octagon, and against progressivley tougher competition. He's 5-0 and is deservedly being talked about in the same breath as guys like Velasquez, Carwin and Mir.
Plus he's entertaining as hell, and in a division dominated by grapplers there's something indisputedly badass about a 6'3 Brazilian kickboxing champion blasting guys out with his fists and making it look easy.
But there is one nagging doubt I have about him, and that's the fact that at no time in the 20 odd minutes he's spent so far in the Octagon has he been flat on his back with a dominant wrestler grinding him with brutal ground'n'pound. Stylistically, that fight hasn't occurred yet, and as a result takedown defence, scrambles and submissions are all sides of dos Santos' game that we haven't really seen.
I can see the potential for a guy like Velasquez to give him problems. Velasquez is a pretty good kickboxer himself, and after dealing to Nog he might be confident enough to strike with Junior. He also showed against Nog that he's fully committing to punches, and that when he does he can hit pretty fucking hard. Not to mention Cain has vicious kicks, so he's a genuine threat while the fight is standing.
But Cain aslo showed against Kongo that if he gets rocked his natural instinct is to explode with a takedown. And I wouldn't be surpised if Cain was more than capable of taking dos Santos down based on what I've seen of him so far. All Cain needs to do is take dos Santos down early in each round and keep him there.
He can keep him down by working a frenetic pace, throwing lots of punches and controlling Junior's position and posture. Avoid submissions, rinse wash repeat, and Cain could easily win a decision. We've seen this fight a thousand times before, with a thousand different aggressive American wrestlers and a thousand different strikers.
Dos Santos' counter strategy based on his striking/BJJ skillset is also an old, well known one. Defend the takedown and throw bombs. If you get taken down, try to submit him off your back. Or work a sweep and try and get back to your feet.
Cain is more than capable of implementing his gameplan. He proved that conclusively against Cheick Kongo. We've yet to see if dos Santos is capable of implementing his.
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