Carwin has crazy power in his hands, but Overeem has crisp striking to the point of ridiculousness and I think he outpoints Carwin all night long. Carwin's never fought somebody with a good size advantage on him and we know Overeem can take a punch, so I think it all really comes down to the explosiveness in Carwin's shot, because if he can get this to the ground, the striking edge is null and void.
Personally, I think Overeem's power and technical striking will keep Carwin at bey with BRUTAL legkicks and distance too long and eventually Overeem will rock him and sink in the guillotine. I don't think I've ever seen somebody toss a man Rogers' size with the ease Overeem did last night and that scared me a little. Carwin's a big, powerful fighter, but I think Overeem's striking is on another planet and Carwin'll be hardpressed to secure a shot without eating something really grizzly on the way in.
MY MMA RANKINGS
HW Velasquez Cigano Werdum Cormier Bigfoot Barnett Mir Browne
LHW Jones Machida Evans Hendo Davis Goose Teixeira Shogun Mousasi Bader
MW ASilva Rockhold Belfort Weidman Jacare Okami Kennedy Consta Belcher Boetsch
WW GSP Hendricks Condit MacDonald Diaz Maia Fitch Kampmann Ellenberger Pyle
LW Bendo Alvarez Maynard Melendez Thomson J.Miller Diaz Pettis Chandler Grant dos Anjos
FW Aldo Mendes Curran Lamas Frankie Zombie
BW Cruz Barao Fernandes Faber Moraes