Originally Posted by rivethead
Time will tell, but I think you're on crack. I think you're underestimating Henderson's striking and his chin, and severely overestimating Jones' power. Henderson has fought much better technical strikers than Jones--more accurate, more powerful--and hasn't been close to being KO'd, never mind "easily" giving up a legit KO.
Dan is a good striker, with huge power and a great chin. Who also has slower footwork... similar in some ways to Rampage. With Jones huge reach and speed advantage he will be able to control Dan, he wont be as dangerous as he usually is. Not necessarily because of Jones' striking skill, but because of his physical talents.
We have also seen Jones fight much better strikers than Hendo as well. Who would have given Dan all he could handle as well. Technically speaking they are above Jones, but we all saw the fights, he has natural advantage that can more than close the gap.
Dan is going to be constantly trying to get inside, to land his punches or even try for a clinch. That will give Jones a great opportunity to make Dan run into one of his shots.
I see Jones dropping Hendo at some point in this fight standing... but he will most likely follow him to the ground and finish him there with strikes or sub him... But Jones has said he is looking for the KO, if he really was, he could let Dan up and lay it on him. I also think Anderson could have been the first to truely KO Dan, but he chose to follow him to the ground and sub him... He landed his strikes with great accuracy...
Dan has a legendary chin, one of the best we have ever seen in MMA for sure. He only get fazed by huge shots, but has great recovery even from there, but still everyone can get put out. In this fight he has a higher chance of getting put out... due to Jones' reach and Speed, negating a lot of his game.
Originally Posted by rivethead
I don't know that anyone is saying they'd walk through him, but I'd favor them at this point, particularly if they fought him now, with his lack of HW experience and the current holes in his game. He'd be dealing with fighters who would close the gap on the ridiculous reach advantage he's enjoyed over LHW's and--if their technical skills weren't enough--they would have strength advantages to go with sheer mass to augment their takedowns. All three of them have grappling advantages over him, and all three of them hit harder than he does if there is any clinch work.
At LHW, it's a toss-up, because I just don't know how Cormier reacts to the cut, but at HW--particularly if the fight occurred now, for the reasons I've stated above--I'd go long money on Cormier all day.
Yes with guys like Werdum, Barnett and Mir. They are all closer in height/reach to him than his LHW opponents. And would hold a strenght advantage over him.... but that alone isnt going to allow them to get him down. Jones' does have very good wrestling. Werdum and Mir do not have good wrestling, it would be very hard for them to get him down. And Josh's takedowns imo are very overrated. He is an excellent grappler as a whole, but as a pure wrestler he is not up there. Also they all have good technical striking but would give up a lot of speed to Jones.
Who does that leave then... Cain, JDS, AO, DC. All would be very tough fights for Jones.
Especially JDS and AO, he gets killed by both of them now. They both have good size, tdd and killer standup.
It will be very interesting to Jones at HW. I wouldnt pencil him in as the future champ just yet, but dont understand how people say he would struggle with any top10 HW and get killed by guys like Mir, Barnett, etc.