I dont know about that... Evans has improved himself a lot in all areas since their first fight... but Machida is a bad matchup for him...
Lyoto keeps his distance well and has great TDD. I do think the new Evans can get Lyoto down, but it will be hard... and what is he going to do that the entire fight?
He should be looking for a fight with Shogun, that has been supposed to happen for so many years now... that fight seems tailor made for him.
If Lyoto/Hendo gets made, Dan can kiss his title shot away... Maybe its best for Dan to avoid that fight, and wait/heal up for Jones.