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[jlruthven84]

01/07/2008
Will Joe Daddy continue Penn’s 155-lb title frustrations?
By Michael DiSanto

BJ Penn might be one of the most gifted mixed martial artists on the planet, but some might say that he is cursed as far as the UFC Lightweight Title is concerned.

Hawaii's finest first entered the Octagon to challenge for the 155-lb strap on January 11, 2001. The event was UFC 34. Jens Pulver, who enjoyed an 11-2-1 record at the time, was the reigning champion. Penn, by comparison, was a scant 3-0 as a professional fighter.

Yet, Penn was the overwhelming prefight favorite. Fair enough. “The Prodigy” was the most highly decorated American jiu-jitsu practitioner in the world, winning the Brazilian Mundials in the black belt category in 2000. And his UFC experience, while brief, was already filled with jaw-dropping highlights, including a blitzkrieg 11-second knockout win over top contender Caol Uno at UFC 34.

Elite jiu jitsu and lightning fast hands seemed like an unbeatable combination of skills. Thus, fans and pundits alike believed that the Hawaiian was destined for lightweight gold.

Penn exploded in the opening two rounds, repeatedly taking Pulver down. He even secured what could have been a fight-ending arm bar in the second round. But time expired just as he hyper-extended the champion’s arm. A reinvigorated Pulver turned the tides after that moment, winning a majority decision with good striking, improved takedown defense and an amazing will to win.

A contract dispute between Pulver and Zuffa led to the promotion stripping the champion of his title. A four-man tournament was announced to crown his replacement. And Penn was in the mix yet again.

Just as before, the Hawaiian was the overwhelming favorite to win the title. But Penn failed to win the title for a second time, as he battled to an uninspired draw against Uno in the tournament final at UFC 41.

Two attempts at winning the lightweight title. Two lost opportunities.

Nearly four years later, Penn is back for his third opportunity to win 155-lb gold. This time he will face top contender Joe “Daddy” Stevenson on January 19 to fill the championship void created by former champion Sean Sherk’s suspension.

Like the previous two times Penn fought for the lightweight title, he enters the fight as the overwhelming fan and betting favorite.

Is the third time a charm for the Prodigy? Or will Joe Daddy spoil his title quest yet again?

Penn’s keys to victory are the same in virtually all of his fights: soften up his foe on the feet to open the door for a clinch, use the clinch to score a takedown and be very active with his transition jiu jitsu, preferably from the top position.

For all his legendary skills, the Prodigy knows that he has only average takedown skills, so he needs to use his fists create opportunities to get the fight to the canvas, where he has few peers. He does that more often than not by firing thudding one-two combinations, occasionally finishing up with a left hook. Penn likes to counter with big right hands, but he tends to lead with one-twos.

He would love to score a knockout win over Stevenson on the 19th, but Penn will more likely use punches in bunches to close the distance where he can work for a clinch -- his preferred position for a takedown. Again, Penn isn’t a great double- or single-leg guy, but he is serviceable with Greco throws and trips. Securing the clinch, therefore, is a big key to victory, particularly against a solid wrestler like Stevenson.

Once the fight hits the mat, very few opponents survive a round unscathed when Penn secures the top position. He is a master at using strikes to create submission opportunities and equally adept at capitalizing on them. He also has excellent hips and rarely overcommits, so he is extremely difficult to sweep.

Stevenson might be an excellent ground fighter in his own right, but he is not in Penn’s class. If this fight spends significant time on the ground with Penn in the dominant position, Penn will end the fight inside the distance, winning by either stoppage due to strikes or a submission.

Those keys to victory might sound a bit simplistic, but Penn is so talented that the outcome of a fight rarely depends on what his opponent does in the ring. He doesn’t need to key off any one Stevenson weakness. He doesn’t need to worry about avoiding any particular Stevenson strength. He just needs to show up focused on doing what he does best – throwing hands to soften up Stevenson and then securing a submission when the fight hits the mat.

It really is that simple.

Then again, it was that simple for Penn-Pulver I and Penn-Uno II, and he didn’t win either of those bouts.

If Stevenson wants to continue the Prodigy’s 155-lb title frustrations and, at the same time, catapult his own career into rarified UFC air, he needs to put Penn on his back and keep him there with a conservative ground-and –pound attack that leads to a yeoman-like judges’ decision.

Penn’s biggest strength can also be his biggest weakness at times. He is an amazing fighter from the top position, but he is no less daunting from his guard. Penn is so good, both offensively and defensively, from his guard that he often uses it as a refuge for rest during grueling fights. He will pull guard in the face of an onslaught so that he can catch his breath and gather his wits because he is supremely confident that he will not sustain any damage while on his back, and he is equally confident that he can work back to his feet or catch a submission from that position, almost at will.

The problem with that logic is that judges often view the fighter on top as the one winning the round. As a result, a fighter who spends more of a round fighting form the top position, even if he isn’t doing much damage, will win the round more often than not.

That fits perfectly with Joe Daddy’s game. He likes to be the bull, not the matador. He is an aggressive, at times reckless, standup fighter who loves to rush foes behind a blaze of wild fists in order to force the action to the ground.

Stevenson, like Penn, doesn’t have the world’s greatest takedown arsenal. But if he shows up in great shape and continues to push a frenzied pace on the feet throughout the fight, Penn will react by pulling guard when he tires, just like in previous fights.

Joe Daddy is good enough on the ground to hold down anyone, including Penn, if he remains committed and cautious. With that said, he needs to be very careful playing around inside Penn’s guard. Talk with anyone who has rolled with Penn and the first thing they will describe is his almost-inhuman flexibility in his hips and knees. It is so far off the charts that he can secure submissions or sweeps from positions that would be guaranteed stalemates for less limber fighters.

Stevenson needs to keep those thoughts at the forefront of his mind throughout the fight. There is no doubt that Marc Laimon prepared him well for Penn’s ground game, but it is virtually impossible to find sparring partners that can replicate his flexibility, so Stevenson needs to remain cautious, even when he thinks he is completely safe.

Joe Daddy can do that by throwing short elbows and punches while keeping his chest down inside Penn’s guard. Sure, that runs the risk of some sort of crazy gogoplata, but a loss by gogoplata is lower on the probability spectrum than Penn using his butterfly guard to work to his feet if Stevenson postures up to try and land bombs during his ground-and-pound attack.

Above all else, he should not try to pass Penn’s guard until the Prodigy is dead tired. Passing creates too many opportunity for scrambles. And scrambles are the perfect opportunity for an escape artist and submission guru like Penn to work his magic.

He needs to avoid all that by staying centered inside Penn’s guard and methodically grinding out the round on the judges’ cards, round after round until the fight is over or Penn completely gasses.

It isn’t the most spectacular approach to a fight, but it is the most effective way for Joe Daddy to beat the Prodigy on the 19th.

Only thing I disagree with is the author's statement that Joe is strong enough to hold Penn down. Randy Couture said he trained with BJ for a bit and had trouble keeping him down. Either way, looking forward to this fight.

Source: ufc.com

[notrightn0w]

Third time's a charm.

[KnowledgeKnown]

I would be in shock if Penn lost this fight. I like Joe. I think he's solid and can beat a lot of guys, but IMO he's not really in BJ's league. Penn is in many p4p discussions, is Joe Daddy? Now let's hope Penn isn't thinking like this, because if he believes his own hype Stevenson could pull out the upset.

[ninjastix]

There's no reason Penn can't win this fight. Should be able to use his standing to frustrate Joe, who has very short arms, force him into a take down attempt and work a submission from his back.

[Vigilo]

Joe has a weak chin. BJ will knock him out i think.

[whitey64]

Anything can happen in a fight and I like Joe Daddy but I think BJ has had enough messing around and is ready to prove he is P4P one of the best.

[ArMnHC]

the author of the article is assuming Stevenson will be in better shape then BJ...wish is hilarious. Joe has never been known for his cardio either, so to say BJ will gas and Joe will not is laughable. i really dont see how BJ losses this fight, unless Joe can somehow pull off a Rampage/Chuck type KO where he manages to hit BJ "SQUARE" on the button. and BJ has a chin of steel, so good luck with that Joe.

i feel BJ/Sherk is inevitable at this point.

[virtualpurple]

Originally Posted by Vigilo

Joe has a weak chin. BJ will knock him out i think.

How can you even make the claim that Joe has a weak chin? Dude has only been KO'd once, and that was by Pulver. BJ has won several fights by TKO, but only one KO.

I'm going to go against my gut and say that Joe Stevenson will pull an upset.

[ckauffman28]

bj in late 2nd or early 3rd, will be a good fight though

[peno]

BJ Penn is one of my favorate fighters but my guts telling me Joe. I think Joes gonna catch BJ in either a guillotine or a rear naked choke. He sinks either submission I think BJ taps.