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[Jza]

The spider isn't getting much love today is he.
I think Anderson will win wit probably late in the second although admittedly I'm not sure how.
All I know is I cant wait to see it

[Problematique]

War Hendo.
All I need to say.

[Diegonightmare]

I could have done this as a poll with 8 choices, essentially creating a ranking of probability, but I decided to leave it freeform.

I find Hendo-Silva fascinating because good arguments can be made for the likelihood of each of the results.

The 8 possible endings to tonight's main event (aside from a draw, a DQ, a NC, or some other highly unlikely event) are:

Henderson by split decision
Henderson by unanimous decision
Henderson by submission
Henderson by (T)KO
Silva by split decision
Silva by unanimous decision
Silva by submission
Silva by (T)KO


Given those 8 outcomes, where would you rank them in terms of probability of actually occurring?

With 1 as most likely and 8 as least, here's how I rank them:

1 Henderson by unanimous decision
2 Henderson by split decision
3 Silva by (T)KO
4 Silva by submission
5 Henderson by (T)KO
6 Henderson by submission
7 Silva by split decision
8 Silva by unanimous decision

Hendo by decision is self explanatory - superior wrestling. If he can take the fight to the ground - which he can - and he can avoid a submission, he wins either a unanimous or split.

Barring that, I got Silva either (T)KOing him on the feet or submitting him on the ground. I think Silva's fancy footwork, plus his range and his quickness, is solid enough that both of those results are more likely than Dan (T)KOing him.

I have Hendo by submission as #6...in reality I think Silva has much better BJJ and is unlikely to get submitted, but as unlikely as that is, I think Silva winning a decision - split or unanimous - is even less likely. If this fight goes 25 minutes, then it means Dan took it to the ground often enough, and avoided a submission well enough, to win a decision. And obviously a Silva split is (slightly) more likely than a Silva unanimous.

How would you rank them and why?

[KnowledgeKnown]

Because of my background, I always feel beholden to the wrestlers. I believe Dan Henderson will win. However, if Silva wins this, I don't know who's really out there to challenge this dude.

[Nauner]

Hendo is getting KO'd in the first.

I like Silva and hope he wins this because he's just so classy but really I'm picking Dan to win this by decision. I think his wrestling is going to make this match. I'd love to see a TKO but Dan's too tough and Anderson is too good on the ground.