MMA News Forums » MMA Forums » General MMA Forum

[Sakara=Excitement]

Zuffa in Trouble Part 1: Weak Ratings for WEC 47 - Bloody Elbow

Throughout the fall and winter the UFC suffered from a string of bad luck, contract disputes and injuries to popular champions but refused to cut back on the number of events they held. Some of us warned that they were training their fans to only tune in for the biggest events.

Meanwhile Zuffa pressed ahead with plans for little brother org World Extreme Cagefighting to air a Pay Per View in 2010, despite the promotion not having succeeded in building a single draw fighter other than Urijah Faber.

MMA Junkie has the details on the WEC's poor numbers:

Michael David Smith breaks out the meaning of that a bit and the unhealthy reliance the WEC has on fading star Urijah Faber:

Zach Arnold draws some conclusions:

Arnold gets to the bigger implications of the weak WEC ratings: the potential that UFC on Versus will be a bust.

Zuffa originally acquired the WEC and signed the deal with Versus as a way to keep competitors like the IFL from getting aired on the cable network. That deal -- which reportedly precludes the UFC from using the WEC as a true feeder league to develop prospects and give veterans some work on their way down the career ladder.

Instead they came up with the very self-limiting brand strategy of focusing solely on the smallest weight divisions, entirely killing the WEC's light heavyweight, middleweight and welterweight divisions. Additionally, the pretense that the WEC is a stand-alone organization has created the pressure on them to move to PPV to make money and give their few stars (ok, Urijah Faber) better pay days.

Now, with Versus' parent company Comcast's acquisition of NBC, Zuffa has actually deepened their ties to Versus, signing a deal to air two live UFC fighting events on the network in 2010. The first of these will feature Jon Jones vs Brandon Vera on March 21.

Zuffa in Trouble Part 2: UFC 110's Poor PPV Numbers - Bloody Elbow

The news came out last night that the early trending numbers for UFC 110 are weak, in the 215,000 to 240,000 range -- which is comparable to many of the UFC's foreign tape-delayed events. The difference was that UFC 110, because it occurred on Sunday afternoon in Australia, aired live in the U.S. at the regular 10pm EST slot.

First off, keep in mind that these same trending numbers for UFC 108 indicated a disastrous number for that event but later reports showed that the numbers were weak, but not as bad as initially feared. Still, 108 ended up doing around 300,000 which is still very weak for a U.S. UFC in the post-TUF era.

Our own Michael Rome predicted something like this for UFC 110:

BE commenter NotTheFace puts the 110 numbers in context:

Because of their commitment to international expansion and their failure to lock down a deal with HBO in 2007, the UFC has had too many events and not enough television venues. Pay cable would have been an elegant solution to bringing American fans the European/Australian events. As it is, they're kind of dumped onto the American PPV market in the late afternoon or on Spike TV via tape delay. Neither is an ideal situation.

But many of the flop events of 2009/2010 were NOT international events: 102, 103, 106, 108 and 109 were just flat out duds. Much of that had to do with bad luck and injuries. But the refusal to cancel any of those events in the face of so many fluke fighter cancellations reflects a kind of hubris and inertia that is cause for concern.

The UFC has definitely lost the upward momentum that it had coming out of UFC 100 that carried over to UFC 101.

Another topic that hasn't been brought up much, is the ongoing financial difficulties of Station Casinos, the foundation of the Fertitta family empire. They just reached terms with their creditors this week, allowing them to retain control of the casinos despite owing more than $2.4 billion.

The Las Vegas Sun reported earlier this week that part of that deal included a major payment from the Fertittas:

The Fertittas would make a substantial, but undisclosed, equity investment and the current management team led by Chairman and Chief Executive Frank Fertitta III would continue to lead the company.

MMA Payout noted that and connected some dots:

In today's volatile no-you-own-it-now-you-don't business climate, MMA fans shouldn't be too sanguine about the continued success of the UFC. Things just get harder as the stakes get higher.

Is Zuffa Really in Trouble? UFC's Spring Events Hold the Answer - Bloody Elbow

Is Zuffa Really in Trouble? UFC's Spring Events Hold the Answer

With the news that WEC 47 only pulled in a very weak 0.46 rating (373,000 viewers) and UFC 110 trended low pay-per-view buyrates in the neighborhood of 215,000 to 240,000, a panic among many analysts and fans has swept the blogosphere pretty rapidly. Some writers believe oversaturation is the main culprit while others believe the past flops have simply been underwhelming cards in terms of match-ups. Zuffa's persistence in pushing UFC events despite having a rash of injuries plague entire fight cards could also have led to some dismal numbers, but the future should prove that Zuffa is still king in the world of mixed martial arts.

The next few months should play an important role in determining whether Zuffa is truly in for a recession of their own. The timetable for the upcoming events along with their main headliners is as follows:

UFC 111 (March 27, 2010): Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy, Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin, Fitch vs. Alves

UFC 112 (April 10, 2010): Anderson Silva vs. Demian Maia, B.J. Penn vs. Frankie Edgar, Hughes vs. Gracie

UFC 113 (May 8, 2010): Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua, Josh Koscheck vs. Paul Daley

UFC 114 (May 29, 2010): Rampage Jackson vs. Rashad Evans, Griffin vs. Rogerio Nogueira

UFC 115 (June 12, 2010): Tito Ortiz vs. Chuck Liddell, Wanderlei Silva vs. Akiyama, Thiago vs. Kampmann

UFC 116 (July 3, 2010): Brock Lesnar vs. Velasquez or Carwin/Mir winner

I also mentioned that there is a lot of potential for Brock Lesnar to bring home a record-breaking amount of bacon following his fight at UFC 116. Even if he loses to Mir or Carwin, there are legitimate contenders waiting in the wings that will make for drawing fights toward the end of 2010 into early 2011.

UFC 111 should provide a substantial increase from UFC 110 as Georges St. Pierre and Dan Hardy have had ample time to promote the fight along with plenty of exposure to fans. The trash-talking arrogant ways that Hardy has pushed onto past opponents can't hurt either. Add in Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin and we should see something over 350,000 at the very least. I'll be conservative as Carwin isn't exactly a well-known figure among casual fans and he's been out for nearly a year.

UFC 112 should be the blockbuster with the exception of possibly being beaten out by UFC 116. Penn and Silva combined for 850,000 buys back at UFC 101, although the opponents were much more intriguing as it was perceived that Griffin would provide a challenge to Silva and the same could be said for Florian. I imagine it'll be less than that number, but may spike above 600,000.



UFC 113 might get some bigger buys due to the controversy of Machida-Shogun I while UFC 114 and UFC 115 should see solid returns from proven veteran drawing powers. UFC 116 should be a guaranteed payday for Zuffa unless injuries plague the card.

Overall, we're looking at a five month run in which Zuffa could bounce back with a vengeance in terms of increased pay-per-view revenue and numbers of viewers. Even more intriguing is the fact that several future bouts that could produce huge revenue could also come to fruition if certain outcomes happen. Most notably, the top tier of the heavyweight division in Brock Lesnar, Shane Carwin, Frank Mir, and Cain Velasquez with Junior Dos Santos and Gabriel Gonzaga now looking in could be very, very lucrative.

The WEC is in a different boat, and I believe the promotion solely depends on how well the WEC 48 pay-per-view buys look. Urijah Faber is certainly the drawing power of the promotion, but can he actually feed the WEC with more than 100,000 buys? I'm not holding out hope, but if the sole purpose of the WEC has been to take up some space in the landscape of the television market to stop other promotions from gaining steam -- does it really matter if the promotion makes a lot of money? As long as they aren't dropping bags of cash off the back of the truck, it's still a viable promotion in stopping their competitors. There aren't too many competitors anymore though.

Jose Aldo could be the key to resurgent ratings for the WEC. His explosive style and power could bring more fans to Versus to watch him fight. Unfortunately, the WEC doesn't have a plethora of fighters just like him who can twitch their leg and explosively split someone's melon open in a split second, and I've always been a proponent that a merge, even without the marketing, would allow these smaller guys to sell themselves on a UFC pay-per-view. That probably won't happen, and it may not need to happen if the WEC is simply a placeholder blocking off promotions like Bellator or the MFC.

I don't think we need to worry too much at this point. The overall quality of the past few cards won't compare to the quality of the upcoming events. Fans need to be a bit more realistic in the drawing power of many of the former PRIDE stars and even some of the TUF alums who've made a name for themselves. It isn't as high as you think. Fighters like Wanderlei Silva and the Nogueira brothers have very little drawing power in the UFC right now.

Keep an eye on UFC 111 and UFC 112. If UFC 112 actually pulls a dismal number, cause for concern is probably warranted. As for right now, Zuffa isn't in trouble... yet.

http://www.cagepotato.com/ufc-learns...ights-ppv-buys

UFC Learns the Hard Way That Title Fights = PPV Buys

Though all of the big-money fights scheduled for the spring/summer promise to turn their fortunes around, Zuffa has taken some serious hits lately. First we heard that WEC 47 pulled in a dismal 373,000 viewers, which was their second-smallest audience in two years — not exactly the level of heat you want going into your first pay-per-view card. Now, we hear that UFC 110 is trending at an estimated 215,000-240,000 pay-per-view buys, which follows very disappointing performances by UFC 108 and UFC 109. Sure, we all knew the UFC's fall/winter injury curse would have fans playing pick-and-choose, but the numbers are straight-up grim. Via BloodyElbow, here's how the UFC's pay-per-view cards have performed starting with the high-water mark of UFC 100 last July:


In 2009 the UFC averaged 620,000 buys per ppv event. If we look at the percentage each event was above or below that average we can definitely see a downward trend from 100.
UFC 100 1,600,000 + 245%
UFC 101 850,000 + 29%
UFC 102 435,000 -30%
UFC 103 375,000 -40%
UFC 104 500,000 -20%
UFC 106 375,000 -40%
UFC 107 620,000 +/- 0
UFC 108 300,000 -51%
UFC 109 275,000 -55%
UFC 110 240,000 -62%
Average with title on line 820,000
Average with non-title main event 370,000

It's common sense, but we finally have the numbers to support it — fans show up when the fights matter. UFC 107's relatively strong showing, an oasis in a desert of limp-wristed buyrates, could be attributed to the BJ Penn/Diego Sanchez lightweight title fight that headlined the card. #107 was preceded by UFC 106, with its main event of Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin — two guys who are supposed to be draws themselves — and fans responded with a collective "meh." That's what happens when you put on more frequent cards with fewer available stars (due to injuries) in a down economy.

To me, it also suggests that the UFC's "legendary" stars like Randy Couture, Tito Ortiz, Rich Franklin, and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira — who the UFC has leaned on for main events during this slump — are becoming irrelevant to younger fans, who care a lot more about BJ Penn, Georges St. Pierre, Anderson Silva, and Brock Lesnar. The UFC's next two events should rescue them from this skid, at least temporarily. But they should curb their expectations the next time they headline a card with a non-title-fight between two old guys.

[Xanatos]

I think this falls mainly on the clusterfucks that have been going on with belts and #1 contenders.

Titles on the line and number 1 contender fights = drawing power. They need to establish #1 contender fights in advance instead of leaving it up in the air...a la frankie Edgar.

Also, keep these guys defending their belts. i wanna see a champion defend his belt at least three times a year, if not four. He's the best fighter in the UFC, the best conditioned, then prove it. prove you can stay the champion.

Things will pick up with the next few cards, they just need a reletively consistent string of title defenses. Not a big clumping together of Good cards and then a big clumping together of bullshit cards. spread it out more evenly. I don't really blame anyone for all of this.

GSP and Silva were injured. brock was dying, Machida was injured, all there was to be exciting was BJ, and he just cleaned house like usual.

[Masscore]

This is why the UFC needs to add FW and BW and just completely takeover the WEC. Think about how many PPVs would have title fights if they added two more divisions. FW and BW might not be the best sells, but I am sure they would add at least 100,000 buys to each PPV if a title was on the line.

Those of you who do not think that BW and FW could sell PPVs, I think otherwise. With the UFC marketing and backing guys like Cruz, Bowles, Torres, Faber, Brown and Aldo would all be much bigger names and able to sell PPVs. Remember it was not so long ago that people thought LWs couldn't headline PPVs and now look at BJ Penn. In his last 4 PPVs Penn has not sold under 500,00 buys (v. Sherk, GSP, Florian and Sanchez).

Title fights help a lot because a lot of people would just rather see a title on the line, it kind of makes the PPV special. Without a title fight its kind of like watching a glorified UFN.

[Fedorlei Gomipierre]

Zuffa's not in trouble. Maybe Joe Silva's matchmaking job is, but Zuffa's a juggernaut and MMA is huge among key demos.

[Otomosix]

Originally Posted by Masscore

This is why the UFC needs to add FW and BW and just completely takeover the WEC. Think about how many PPVs would have title fights if they added two more divisions. FW and BW might not be the best sells, but I am sure they would add at least 100,000 buys to each PPV if a title was on the line.

Those of you who do not think that BW and FW could sell PPVs, I think otherwise. With the UFC marketing and backing guys like Cruz, Bowles, Torres, Faber, Brown and Aldo would all be much bigger names and able to sell PPVs. Remember it was not so long ago that people thought LWs couldn't headline PPVs and now look at BJ Penn. In his last 4 PPVs Penn has not sold under 500,00 buys (v. Sherk, GSP, Florian and Sanchez).

Title fights help a lot because a lot of people would just rather see a title on the line, it kind of makes the PPV special. Without a title fight its kind of like watching a glorified UFN.

Right on the money.

Adding Bantam and Featherweight Divisions to the UFC will give them more flexibility in PPV cards (especially when multiple champs suffer injuries) and "introduce" mainstream fans to the lighter (but also more exciting) fighters.

The only drawback I see in this is if the UFC makes a mistake in stacking 3 championship fights into a single PPV. And even then, it would only be a mistake if all 3 of these fights ended up as 5-round borefests (highly unlikely).

[Caine2878]

I agree with adding WEC's BW and FW division I also would like to see them add a Cruiserweight division (195). This would add more meaniful fights to PPV's and not have a bunch of filler fights the casual fans don't care about.

[Xanatos]

I like the idea of BW and FW but not Cruiserweight. I think there would be too much division jumping going on.

[Caine2878]

The division jumping really doesn't bother me, but take someone like Rich Franklin who will never have a title shot at middleweight again, and I doubt he would ever get to a title shot a LHW either this would be a good division for him. We already have catchweight fights at 195 why not create a division? You don't think there will be division jumping between BW FW LW?

[snakebite]

i am not reading all that. this is what i got from the first 2 paragraphs though. You get crappy ratings when its free. Uriah faber is not that good. He is not worth $45 and wec is making a horrible decision. I mean really, does zuffa really car about the sport that much like they say? seems to be all about money these days.

[snakebite]

Oh another thing, What the fuck is up with the wec and constant rematches?!?!?! i hate it!!! stop having cerrone fight the same 3 opponents constantly, same with faber, it shows they dont have enough talent.