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[megamus]

I think Cain will come out much like Carwin did, throw some combos that will get the big boy backpeddling, Brock is immature in his striking and it is clear he cannot process "punches in bunches" and he will turtle again. Brock is not a counter puncher, therefore it would be smart game plan Cain to move forward right off the hop and hit brock from different angles. We are going to see the same first round as the Carwin fight except Cain will have the gas to do that again in the second and third rounds....

Brock will lose and that sets up a rematch for a title contender with Carwin while JDS fights Cain in one of the best heavyweight fights ever. Or the UFC could grant Mir his wet dream and run a rubber match between him and brock before giving brock a shot at the title again....but im getting way to far ahead...

[NLRepublic]

Agreed on most points for sure, it is an extremely even match up all around.

I wouldn't be surprised if this fight went the 5. I mean obviously odds are that when you have over 500 lbs. in a cage swinging at each other someone will go to sleep, but this has UD written on it much more than Brock/Carwin did and when JDS takes the winner

Cain has the obvious advantage on the feet and I think he could out point Brock as long as he wanted to really if that's where the fight went. Personally I think Brock is going to have a lot more trouble getting Cain on his back than he imagines. So I can picture a lot of action against the cage. If Cain can compose himself and last even for a few rounds through that he could potentially be fresher as the fight goes on and roll off of those and get to the middle of the Octagon. Cain's hands aren't as heavy as Carwin's but they are faster and more precise, and Brocks hands up back-peddling stand-up will feed perfectly into what Cain wants on the feet. Such a close fight to call

[rivethead]

Originally Posted by TBEAR

I understand what you are saying but the reverse is I dont think Cain can hold down Brock. I dont see ethier guy pulling of a triangle or anything so, who ends up on top will win this fight IMO

He's not saying hold him down, he's saying score big damage gnp that he can capitalize on later...and make lesnar even more gunshy.

Originally Posted by the_dark_angel_4ever

Brock by TKO round 3. Cain wasn't able to stop Kongo after pounding on him for 3 rounds, and yes he KO'd Nog, but as much as i love Nog he hasn't seemed like himself in a long time and he's really slowed down and stopped moving his head. Yes Cain will have the cardio to last all 5 rounds and brock might not, but I think for the first three rounds when both guys are relatively fresh just about every advantage goes to Brock. If Brock doesn't finish it by the 3rd round Cain might be able to take it

MMA math doesn't work. You could just as easily point out that lesnar couldn't finish Herring after surprising him and blinding him in one eye with he first punch.

Velasquez wasn't able to stop Kongo, but Cain has developed from that fight [much the same as lesnar has developed since fighting Herring], and as much as I think Kongo is an overrated not-even-top-30 HW, he's still got better movement and striking defense than lesnar...he also isn't as concerned about getting hit as brock has shown in the past.

Ultimately, it's anyone's fight. If I was to break it down, I'd say Cain has the skills edge in striking and grappling, has better cardio and fight plans; I'd say brock is stronger, has more size--which will even the grappling and has more experience in high-pressure environment--which saved him in the Carwin fight.

Either fighter has tools to end it, and it won't be surprising, either way.

rh

[Black]

Cain's kicks wont have anypart in this fight because he is going to get TD if he try to kick Lesnar so I dont know , big question is how good is Cain from his back because Lesnar is going to TD him eventually if Cain pop up fast on his feet Lesnar is in trouble because Cain have better striking , better cardio... But we will see it will be interesting fights... TBEAR I like your breakdowns...

[Dr. MMA]

Good breakdown except I feel Cain has the overall edge. I think Brock is expecting Cain to stick and move but I think Cain will go for the takedown more than a lot of people expect and I believe he will get it almost everytime as Brock won't be expecting it. It's the advantage of being well-rounded. Cain knows that Brock will be trying to shoot all day and with Cain's footwork, speed and wrestling, I see Brock having a hard time landing them.

I see a lot of scrambles on the ground in this one. If any of them gets taken down, you know they're not trying to work subs off their back. They're going to try and scramble and get back up.

[Masscore]

Originally Posted by TBEAR

As for the underlined, it only has to be three rounds to get a UD.

I understand what you are saying but the reverse is I dont think Cain can hold down Brock. I dont see ethier guy pulling of a triangle or anything so, who ends up on top will win this fight IMO

It is a race to the TD, IMHO

You see, I think it is going to be needed for all 5 rounds. Because honestly Cain only needs one good exchange to put Lesnar on his ass. Every second this fight is standing Lesnar is in a lot of trouble and runs the risk of Cain finding his chin and unloading a combo. Lesnar's only hope is too pull a Chael Sonnen and just hold Cain down all 5 rounds. Which I just do not see happening.

[MickeyKnox]

I personally think we are all in for a surprise in this fight. Brock always tries to pull something new out of his sleeve. As much as we break it down, we can only go by our previous knowledge, and when we are dealing with 2, not just 1, fighter who is constantly evolving, there's no telling what's going to happen! Especially for the HW championship. God dammit, Saturday needs to hurry up and get here.

I hope Brock tuned his standup a little so that we can see Cain eat a big punch or two, before getting taken down and punched in the face. I want to see a nice loss from Lesnar etched into Cains perfect record.

[Malice]

Some good analysis here, I think things are pretty close between these guys except in one department.. SIZE.

The size difference is only 20lbs on paper now (245 vs 265). But Cain is probably a natural 235lb and Brock 285. I think this will be the deciding factor.

Cain is not a big heavyweight by any means:

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (106 kg/233.2 lbs.) vs. Cain Velasquez (110 kg/242 lbs.)





he has beaten bigger guys, but this time he has to beat a bigger guy that is also a great wrestler..

[lwbrewer]

I'm predicting Cain to stick and move stunning Brock with a few shots then trying for a takedown late in the round. With Brocks hate for losing he'll have worked on his boxing so heavey that it might of imparred his wrestling for this match. The best part is we have to watch it to find out.

[Malice]

It is just amazing how big Brock is...