Originally Posted by BBG
His angles will come in much crisper and quicker with the height and weight advantage. He may be fighting another wrestler, but Mendes in not Maynard when it comes to overall brutal strength. Chad has technique and a low center of gravity. Again however, with Florian employing a 9" reach advantage and lower stance, than usual (ala Gomi fight), he will be able to negate MANY takedown attempts.
Not saying Chad wont and cant win, just saying this is not 155lbs and Chad is not steam rolling thru Kenny
I'm leaning towards BBG's way of thinking on this one. Maynard is the number 2 (some would say number one) LW in the UFC. He's also GIGANTIC (note use of caps for emphasis), very strong, and a decent boxer in his own right. While Mendes has been very impressive lately (his winning by UD is meaningless to me given the way he's doiminated his opposition) he's still no Maynard, or even a Sherk (the two wrestlers who have given KenFlo the most problems).
The height and reach advantage is significant if Kenny wants to jab his way to victory. But the threat of the takedown will negate his best weapon (his leg/body kicks) and may reduce his offensive capability. He'll certainly be looking to use his jab as often as possible, and try to time his overhand right when Mendes comes in (a la the Guida fight) to try and KO him or soften him up for a sub/TKO.
Still, even though he's a black belt in BJJ Kenny hasn't shown himself to be a threat off his back in the UFC. If he can get past the jab I can see Chad taking him down and grinding out a decision for 15 minutes. That should be his gameplan, because he probably doesn't want to mess with Kenny's standup if he doesn't have to.
I'd quite like to see this fight. It's reasonably evenly matched, at least in my mind.