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[MickeyKnox]

Originally Posted by dbader08

Any plans MickeyKnox?

Sorry I didn't post back into the thread until now. I had a gambling experience this past week that I've been pretty bummed about. I've never really gambled much before recently and I ended up winning quite a bit of money on the basketball games this past week... but then I lost all of what I had won. It showed me something about gambling. But I will continue to post in this thread whenever I put something down on the fights.

I was waiting to see the weigh ins yesterday to make some decisions.

I am not sure how I want to place my bets yet or if I'm going to do any props. I was considering an Ellenberger prop to win a DEC for +125, but the more I think about Marquardt, the more I shy away from that one.

I am actually thinking about going with a parlay on GSP, Story, Dillashaw, Elkins, and Ricci... and maybe one more. Any suggestions?

The Roop odds at +110 are very tempting, and I think he will win, but i'm not sure I want to make that bet or add it to my parlay. I was going to at first but my instincts are telling me not to. Thoughts?

The Mein/Miller fight is an interesting one because I wouldn't count Miller out at all. Mein is a badass though and could end up proving himself in this fight. Don't know if I want to use this fight or not but the odds are crazy for both guys.

EDIT: Mulhern sure does have a lot of submission wins...

[Leucoethiops]

As stated, I played a parlay on GSP, Dillashaw and Story. I won $38. I put a couple bucks on the big underdogs; Miller and Fletcher, and a parlay with them, and lost that. At the last minute, I put a prop bet on Hendricks to win by decision and that worked out well.

All in all, I won $52 this card between the 3 fight parlay and the Hendircks bet. Not a bad first MMA gambling experience, but I'm hardly euphoric over it.

I can't afford to be putting down any substantial coin; not because I couldn't, but because I shouldn't. But small wagers for shits and giggles, I can deal with. What's $10 on a Hendricks prop bet? No different than buying a couple scratch tickets.

I don't plan to get rich via mma gambling.

Hope everyone else did well, or not at all.

[MickeyKnox]

Good job, Leuc.

I want to bring up something relevant to gambling. I mentioned I never really gambled much until recently on the last two UFC events. Well I took the $194 that I had at the end of the first UFC event and I tried my luck at the basketball games this past week for the Hell of it. I rose my bank to a little under a thousand dollars.

Then I lost all of what I had won. I didn't want to let it bother me since I didn't work for any of it but I was a little down about it for a day. It's crazy how winning and losing can make you feel. I can't imagine how people feel who win or lose millions. Gambling is serious.

So back to the MMA fights tonight...

I wanted to come back tonight. I was thinking about the fights for much of the day. I was looking up stats, thinking about all the bets I should and shouldn't make, for how much, and then the final judgement on it all.

Instead of making any straight bets on a single fighter winning, since most of my picks were heavy favorites, I decided to see how some parlays would work out in my favor after I looked at what they could yield off a fairly small risk. I was working with $220 dollars of mine and made 4 parlays. I had a 4 pick, 5 pick, and two 8 picks.

My 4 pick was GSP/Dillashaw/Story/Elkins. Risked $100, Won $148

My 5 pick was GSP/Dillashaw/Story/Elkins/Ricci. Risked $80, Won $180

I made two of the same 8 man parlays with the only difference being in that I picked Mein for one and Miller for the other. Miller's win would have yielded a great deal more.

The winning one was GSP/Ellenberger/Ricci/Elkins/Dillashaw/Mein/Story... and Camozzi. Risked $20, Won $255

Won a total of $583 (-20) tonight.

Fuck yeah. And tonight's fights were insane.

Can't imagine if I would've put $100 or more on that 8 pick parlay I won.

How did everyone else do? Fedorlei?

[MickeyKnox]

No news, Fedorlei?

These are the current lines that are up at the moment for the next UFC event on Bovada(the site I use).

Alexander "The Mauler" Gustafsson
-260
Gegard "The Dreamcatcher" Mousasi
+200

Brad "One Punch" Pickett
-140
Mike "The Hulk" Easton
+110

Ross "The Real Deal" Pearson
-400
Ryan Couture
+300

Matt "Meathead" Mitrione
-350
Philip De Fries
+265

Thoughts?

I'll be honest, I haven't really been following Ryan Couture's career. Does he really deserve to be at +300 against Pearson??? Mousasi is so tempting at +200 but I don't want to go against Gusta in his home territory.

Pickett/Easton is too close for me to want to touch with anything, IMO.

[Fedorlei Gomipierre]

I pulled down a really nice chunk of change($100) on Kountermove based off of GSP/Dillashaw/Elkins/Story/Condit, but am PO'd that I didn't take a run at Ellenberger instead of Condit, but I still wound up in the top fifteen or so.

My other bets came through very nicely(since I wouldn't lay money down ON Condit, but rather he was the only fighter I could afford to round out my picks), which included a parlay of GSP/Ricci/Story/Dillashaw/Elkins, but that paid shit in the end, so the end of night, I came out with around 130-ish, give or take, but I flush it right back into the next several fights coming up, kinda my play money on these sites.

Super pissed I didn't take a harder look at Ellenberger and Mein, who looked great in victory. They didn't pay out too much and I didn't want to take the gamble against their crafty vet opponents and I thought both Nate and Miller would've been a little cagier, but WTF. Happy I didn't touch the Cote and Ring fights, because they were wonky as fuck to score.

Right now, my early scouting report has:
Mousasi Rd. 3 TKO
Pearson via UD
LONGSHOT- DeFries via Rd. 1 TKO
Easton via UD
Brandao via Rd. 2 TKO
Peralta via Rd. 1 TKO
Johnson via UD
Amagov via Rd. 2 TKO
Kuiper via Rd. 2 TKO
McGregor via Rd. 2 TKO
Abedi via Rd. 2 TKO
Alloway via UD
Troéng via Rd. 1 TKO.

I really don't see too many of the prelim fights going the distance, lotta muscle/power guys and debuting fighters looking to slam and bang.

[Leucoethiops]

For the next card, I'm looking at both of the following parlays:

Goose, Pickett, Pearson, Meathead, @ +270

Goose, Easton, Pearson, Meathead, @ + @ +390

I'm thinking Goose and Meathead are locks; Goose by size discrepency based decision, Meathead by 2nd or 3rd rnd TKO.

Pearson probably outworks Couture for 15. Being somewhat torn between Pickett and Easton, I'll bet on both eventualities; covering the bases and offsetting the loss from the other parlay.

I'll hold off for a bit. Pearson @ -400 won't last; and Meathead @ -350 will probably come down. I expect those guys to both be around -300 come fight time, and that'll improve the payout.

I'm also mulling over a longitudinal parlay of:

Goose, Meathead, Nate Diaz, Cormier, Benson and Bones @ +463

[MickeyKnox]

Originally Posted by Fedorlei Gomipierre

I pulled down a really nice chunk of change($100) on Kountermove based off of GSP/Dillashaw/Elkins/Story/Condit, but am PO'd that I didn't take a run at Ellenberger instead of Condit, but I still wound up in the top fifteen or so.

My other bets came through very nicely(since I wouldn't lay money down ON Condit, but rather he was the only fighter I could afford to round out my picks), which included a parlay of GSP/Ricci/Story/Dillashaw/Elkins, but that paid shit in the end, so the end of night, I came out with around 130-ish, give or take, but I flush it right back into the next several fights coming up, kinda my play money on these sites.

Super pissed I didn't take a harder look at Ellenberger and Mein, who looked great in victory. They didn't pay out too much and I didn't want to take the gamble against their crafty vet opponents and I thought both Nate and Miller would've been a little cagier, but WTF. Happy I didn't touch the Cote and Ring fights, because they were wonky as fuck to score.

Right now, my early scouting report has:
Mousasi Rd. 3 TKO
Pearson via UD
LONGSHOT- DeFries via Rd. 1 TKO
Easton via UD
Brandao via Rd. 2 TKO
Peralta via Rd. 1 TKO
Johnson via UD
Amagov via Rd. 2 TKO
Kuiper via Rd. 2 TKO
McGregor via Rd. 2 TKO
Abedi via Rd. 2 TKO
Alloway via UD
Troéng via Rd. 1 TKO.

I really don't see too many of the prelim fights going the distance, lotta muscle/power guys and debuting fighters looking to slam and bang.

Ricci barely squeezed it out for us. I was very worried once Elkins/Carvalho began, too, because I once I saw how Carvalho was landing on Elkins and figured out he was Canadian, I thought I was about to lose all of my bets because he was in all of my parlays. Luckily for me, he and Camozzi somehow got the wins. I was closing my eyes while waiting for the Camozzi/Ring decision and just hoping that some way some how it would end in my favor.

I was uneasy about risking Ellenberger in the 8 man parlays but I am glad I did. The reason I made two of the same 8 pick parlays was because of the Mein/Miller fight. It was worth sacrificing 20 bucks on Miller if he lost. My take on Mein was that he had looked pretty impressive in his recent fights since his name got brought up a lot more after the Cyborg win but it wasn't enough substance to make me think he would destroy Miller like he did, let alone defeat him. However, I thought he looked in good shape at the weigh ins, and coupled with the fact he wanted to represent himself in his home country, he seemed very determined for his UFC debut alone. He did incredible.

Your opinions, along with some others, helped me in my decisons. I also looked at the picks of the other top pickers in our forum to aid me in coming to a conclusion.

Originally Posted by Leucoethiops

For the next card, I'm looking at both of the following parlays:

Goose, Pickett, Pearson, Meathead, @ +270

Goose, Easton, Pearson, Meathead, @ + @ +390

I'm thinking Goose and Meathead are locks; Goose by size discrepency based decision, Meathead by 2nd or 3rd rnd TKO.

Pearson probably outworks Couture for 15. Being somewhat torn between Pickett and Easton, I'll bet on both eventualities; covering the bases and offsetting the loss from the other parlay.

I'll hold off for a bit. Pearson @ -400 won't last; and Meathead @ -350 will probably come down. I expect those guys to both be around -300 come fight time, and that'll improve the payout.

I'm also mulling over a longitudinal parlay of:

Goose, Meathead, Nate Diaz, Cormier, Benson and Bones @ +463

My honest opinion on those bets are that I'd be too afraid to put money down on them myself. Gusta/Mousasi is tempting but much too difficult to form a solid opinion on either guy. Mousasi is a mystery to this fight. Meathead is a huge favorite but I wouldn't be surprised if De Fries scored an upset finish. When the Diaz/Thomson fight was first made, I wrote Thomson off. I have changed my mind since then and I think Thomson has a very good chance of winning the fight. I am confident in Benson, Cormier, and of course Bones though. Easton/Pickett is a tough one, too.

I haven't began to seriously consider the next event yet. It is a risky one though.

[Leucoethiops]

WSOF odds are striking me as pretty ... odd.

Dave Branch -210
Paulo Filho +170

JZ Cavalcante +110
Justin Gaethje - 140

Rumble -130
Arlovski EVEN

Seems like a worthwhile parlay on the 3 underdogs; since it pays out at 10:1

[KevoOnTheRadio]

Originally Posted by Leucoethiops

WSOF odds are striking me as pretty ... odd.

Dave Branch -210
Paulo Filho +170

JZ Cavalcante +110
Justin Gaethje - 140

Rumble -130
Arlovski EVEN

Seems like a worthwhile parlay on the 3 underdogs; since it pays out at 10:1

What are the odds Branch/Filho even happens?

[MickeyKnox]

Originally Posted by Leucoethiops

WSOF odds are striking me as pretty ... odd.

Dave Branch -210
Paulo Filho +170

JZ Cavalcante +110
Justin Gaethje - 140

Rumble -130
Arlovski EVEN

Seems like a worthwhile parlay on the 3 underdogs; since it pays out at 10:1

I just saw this earlier and wanted to mention it, especially Filho/Branch. These are some very interesting odds.

I wouldn't want to touch JZ/Gaethje but I am considering Filho and Arlovski.