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Old 03-14-2013, 12:10 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default UFC158: Betting Lines

I figure some people may wanna know.

NICK DIAZ +355
GEORGES ST. PIERRE -475

CARLOS CONDIT +110
JOHNY HENDRICKS -140

NATE MARQUARDT +135
JAKE ELLENBERGER -165

CHRIS CAMOZZI -105
NICK RING -125

COLIN FLETCHER +230
MIKE RICCI -300

BOBBY VOELKER +150
PATRICK COTE -180

JOHN MAKDESSI -110
DARON CRUICKSHANK -120

I can add any of the other undercard fights if anyone is interested. I will update on Saturday if there are any significant changes.
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Old 03-14-2013, 12:49 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Fletcher is the one I'd put money on. I'd lean towards Ricci pulling out the decision, but it's his first LW fight (and presumably his first cut to).

My guess is, being from Tristar, and facing a Brit, he'll have been drilling his wrestling non-stop, so I'm thinking Ricci by decision, but at those odds, Fletcher is probably the best bet listed.

Makdessi and Ellenberger, are IMO, safe bets; but not high yielding.
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Old 03-14-2013, 12:59 PM   #3 (permalink)
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I got all the money lines and over/unders added in MickeyKnox's thread for every fight on the card...

Liking Nate, Hendricks, Ring, Voelker, Miller, and Makdessi (got him @+145)...
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Old 03-14-2013, 07:30 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Leucoethiops View Post
Fletcher is the one I'd put money on. I'd lean towards Ricci pulling out the decision, but it's his first LW fight (and presumably his first cut to).

My guess is, being from Tristar, and facing a Brit, he'll have been drilling his wrestling non-stop, so I'm thinking Ricci by decision, but at those odds, Fletcher is probably the best bet listed.
This isn't Ricci's first fight at LW, nor is it his first cut. He fought Pat Curran at LW at Bellator 14. I think he was only at WW for TUF. I could see Ricci winning by decision as well, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Fletcher pull off a submission.
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Old 03-15-2013, 07:14 AM   #5 (permalink)
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im doing some form of Condit, marquart, Ring, and Dillashaw in parlays... gotta wait till after wiegh ins though
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Old 03-15-2013, 07:21 AM   #6 (permalink)
 
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What site do you guys in the USA use for online betting?
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Old 03-15-2013, 07:50 AM   #7 (permalink)
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This isn't Ricci's first fight at LW, nor is it his first cut. He fought Pat Curran at LW at Bellator 14. I think he was only at WW for TUF. I could see Ricci winning by decision as well, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Fletcher pull off a submission.
You're right, TUF is where I saw that ugly, ugly man.
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Old 03-15-2013, 08:10 AM   #8 (permalink)
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What site do you guys in the USA use for online betting?
5Dimes Sportsbook, Casino, Racebook, Poker Room and Lottery Room
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Old 03-15-2013, 08:14 AM   #9 (permalink)
 
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GSP, Elkins, Story and Dillashaw are my locks.

Voelker, Miller, Condit and Ricci are my risky-ish bets. I'd also put a little bit of play money on Roop, but not too certain on him coming off the layoff, so I didn't touch it.

I think Makdessi/Cruickshanck has the makings of a stylistic tossup, depending on how Makdessi chooses to approach the fight, that's a risky fight IMO. And I'm not even touching the Ring fight because he fights to razor close decisions and, despite my personal belief that Camozzi will beat him, that's a tough fight to bet on.
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Old 03-15-2013, 10:08 PM   #10 (permalink)
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GSP, Elkins, Story and Dillashaw are my locks.
I agree with this, I just hope Story doesn't sleep on Mulhern.

I put my coin down on a parley between GSP, Dillashaw, and Story; relatively low risk, but relatively low reward.

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Voelker, Miller, Condit and Ricci are my risky-ish bets. I'd also put a little bit of play money on Roop, but not too certain on him coming off the layoff, so I didn't touch it.
For me, the value bets are in Miller and Fletcher:

Miller was a C+ MW, and probably will be a C+ WW, but he's battle tested, durable, and can be slick. Mein is a B to B- level WW, with wins over some noteable competition; if he can keep it standing, the fight should go his way.

Fletcher and Ricci is a tossup where I'm concerned. Ricci has faced better competition, but lost to all of it.

With odds for Miller and Fletcher at +235 and +245 respectively, I chose to throw down minimal, but equal amounts of coin on both fighters. I also chose to pay the same amount into a parlay at a 10:1 payout. If one wins, and the other loses, I break even. If both win, I'll come out with $65 for the $15 investment. If neither win, I guess I'm shit outta luck; but still ahead if my 3 odds-on-favourites all pull out the 'W'.
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