This is a thread to discuss serious opinions on placing hard earned money on MMA fights. Do not post thoughtless opinions. Act as if you are putting a significant amount of money($100-$1000) on these fights.
Just express who you would truly bet on and why.
Lets start with UFC on Fuel 8.
I am going to start off with:
Kim VS Bahadurzada
Okami VS Lombard
Gomi VS Sanchez
Hunt VS Struve
Stann VS Wandy
EDIT: Not sure why this double posted. Sorry fellas. If you could delete one of these, thanks.
It would be better if you had the fight odd. Here are the bovada ones:
I kindof like syar b at plus 230. I picked the donger, but I could see that one going Syar's way. I might put down 200 on that if I was going to bet.
Hyun Gyu "The Ace" Lim
Marcelo "Magrao" Guimaraes
Alex "Bruce Leeroy" Caceres
Kyung Ho Kang
Bryan "Kid Lightning" Caraway
Dong Hyun "Stun Gun" Kim
Siyar "The Great" Bahadurzada
Mizuto "Pugnus" Hirota
Hector "Lightning" Lombard
Diego "The Dream" Sanchez
Takanori "The Fireball Kid" Gomi
Stefan "Skyscraper" Struve
Brian "All-American" Stann
Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva
Nothing really catches my eye. Diego missing weight raises my eyebrow a bit, with Gomi a +190 there's some value there. I'm way too big of a puss to put anything more than a couple bucks on a fight though due to the unpredictable nature of the sport. I've got a bodog account I started with $100 a couple years ago. I generally only bet in small increments and even then I'm pretty selective on the fights I pick. I think I'm sitting at $55 at the moment so it's probably a good thing I don't place real money on it!
Traverta has talked me in to thinking it might be good to put a hundred on Gomi. Diego missing weight and it being in Japan could help out Gomi.
Originally Posted by travtera
A line I like on 5dimes is Gomi points handicap +3 1/2 +105. That means if it goes to a decision, Gomi just has to win a round per judge...so if the judges' final tallies were all 29-28 Diego, it's a win. You also win if Gomi wins in any way. I think Gomi can win at least a round, plus it's in Japan, he may get a hometown round or 2, who knows.
I like Kang over Caceres -115 also, plus some on Siyar...
A parlay with Lombard and Lim would also possibly be a good bet...
I've had good luck betting against guys that miss weight. It's usually a sign of a tough weight cut or possible injury and you can get in with odds like these it's not a bad idea. Gomi's performances have been so mediocre that I just don't have the confidence in him and Diego generally brings the fight so my gut is steering me away. Fighting in Japan could and hopefully will light a fire under Gomi's ass though.
Originally Posted by MIZjitsZOU
I had some odds off a few websites but I refreshed my page on accident and deleted it all so I said the Hell with it. But from now on, I will add odds from several websites. Thanks for doing it for me though, Miz! Appreciate it, man.
So I put down $40.00 on Siyar tonight, in which I have a bonus for signing up, so if I win, I'll win $172.50, and I put down $20.00 on Okami to win $33.00, even though I picked Lombard in the pickem's.
I think Siyar has a killer instinct in him that not many other fighters can match, especially Kim, so I have faith in him tonight. Kim could very well outgrapple him, but I think Siyar has in him what it takes to win so I put some money down on him. I think he can put Kim to sleep. Kim has never impressed me much in the UFC and has won upon being able to take his opponents to a decision in which he almost slides by. Siyar seems like a man on a mission and I think he will find success tonight.
As for Okami, well.... it's Okami i'm betting on. I picked Lombard in the pickem's more upon hopes but I know Okami could very well neutralize him to a UD. I'm a little nervous on this bet because for all I know, Lombard may be strong enough to keep from being overpowered by the larger Okami, and has more than enough power to put Okami to sleep. Okami is riding the homeland advantage as well.
Going to be intense tonight! Good luck to me. I have $60.00 to lose or $205.50 to win.
I think the BEST fight to bet on, is Okami Lombard.
Yushin Okami +175
Hector Lombard -210
Of all the underdogs, I think Okami has the best chance to pull off the upset. Boetch showed how to beat (an injured?) Lombard, and Okami has better footwork and hands than Boetsch.
Wanderlei Silva +245
Brian Stann -290
At +245, this is my 2nd favourite bet. With his newfound conservative fighting style (Post Leben-KO), I give Wand a decent chance to pull off the decision win. I don't like his odds if he becomes reckless, so I'm not weighing his KO power or lacking chin. If he fights like he did in his last 2 outings against Le and Franklin, I think he beats Stann by DEC.
There are some others that seem like okay choices, but have a few too many intangibles... Siyar has looked great, but Kim can be an animal, I think tonight will reveal a good amount about Siyar's potential.
Gomi's an underdog, and Diego's been hit and miss, flip flopping divisions, and didn't make weight. Gomi might be a decent bet.
Struve's had trouble with short HW's who throw heat straight down the pipe, so I wouldn't write off Hunt, but I'm not aboard the hype train yet either.
Guimares / Lim has decent odds, but I don't know enough about either fighter... The rest of the card have coin toss odds involving fighters I haven't had the time to follow...
So to edit on my previous post, I've placed a couple more ten dollar bets. One on Siyar finishing inside three rounds to support my initial bet on him, and the other for Okami to win by going the distance. I also miscalculated my initial expenditure due to my bonus.
So I have $40 to lose tonight and $261.50 to win.
Like I said, Siyar looked really good in his intro fight against Paulo, but aside from that, most of his wins are against C or D level competition..
Kim's got a better resume, which yes, includes losses to A level fighters, but those losses against top flight competition are skill builders. His judo accolades are also not to be overlooked.
I predict Kim gets Siyar down, and once there, Siyar has no answer.