Ronny Markes -250
Derek Brunson +195
Rodrigo Damm -170
Mizuto "Pugnus" Hirota +140
Karlos "The Terminator" Vemola -140
Caio "Hellboy" Magalhaes +110
Felipe "Sertanejo" Arantes -225
Godofredo "Pepey" Castro +175
Antonio Braga Neto -270
Anthony "Lionheart" Smith +210
Raphael Assuncao -325
Vaughan Lee +250
Ildemar "Marajo" Alcantara -185
Leandro Silva +150
Leo Santos -225
William "Patolino" Macario +175
Daniel Sarafian -450
Eddie Mendez +325
Rony "Jason" Mariano Bezerra -365
Mike "The Warrior" Wilkinson +275
Erick "Indio" Silva -450
Jason "The Kansas City Bandit" High +325
Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante -210
Thiago Silva +170
Fabricio "Vai Cavalo" Werdum -325
Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira +250
There they are. Discuss, fellas. Two days.
I am a little shaky on betting on this weekends event. So many matches I am just not too sure about putting money on. But... I want to win. I haven't decided what I am going to do yet but I will have made my decisions tomorrow between work. Have to see the weighins, too, of course.
The trend of the Brazil cards usually go as the Brazilians defeating outsiders. I am not sure what to think about Vemola/Caio though, or Damm/Hirota. Why is Sarafian such a heavy favorite over Mendez? I am definitely not touching Cavalcante/Silva.
Im up in the air with damm/Hirota- Hirota looked great against healy and damm has been mediocre and i believe this is his last shot if he loses...
Tiago Silva is looking mighty tempting to put a little on at +170
I think im actually going to watch the wiegh ins and wait... im curious how Alcantra will look cutting 3 weight classes...
For some riskier bets, Pepey, Caio, T.Silva and Hirota are really the only ones I'd bite on and I'm stil kinda iffy on both Caio and Hirota.
Before some odds sink any further, I have placed my two big bet parlays today. I made a 4 pick and a 5 pick parlay with a total of $250.
Werdum/Assuncao/Neto/Markes - $150 to win $342
Werdum/E. Silva/Assuncao/Neto/Markes - $100 to win $300
I am going to wait for the weighins to place my smaller, longer parlays. However, I am thinking Alcantara, Bezzera, Sarafian, Leo Santos, and maybe Arantes... Almost all of the favorites on the card are appealing, just like the last Brazil card.
I might make a small bet parlay with some underdogs added to it like Thiago, Caio, or Hirota. Vemola is a bullrusher and a powerfighter who folds if he can't impose his will on you. I could see him getting submitted.
I personally wouldn't touch the TUF finale fight since Santos, while with great grappling cred, is an injury replacement, which just doesn't sit well with me when he's going up against a young firecracker.
You might also switch up your big bets, because Markes is off the card, which will put a dent in your eventual winnings. I'd take Erick Silva or Sarafian in his place.
My bets are pretty much Werdum/Sarafian/ESilva/Jason/Assuncao/Neto and then peppered with some underdogs and risks to heighten the payoffs.
no one taking Thiago Silva at +170?
Thanks for the advice, Fedorlei. I missed the fact that his opponent is only 21 years old and that he was a replacement himself... Pretty big deal to miss, I know. He looks a lot older. However, inexperience could come into play as well. But I agree, too risky to add to a big bet.
So will Bovada just reimburse my money and void my parlays with Markes?
I am pretty disappointed about this. Markes was one of my locks and it really screws up my bets I wanted to make.
So you are really confident in Bezerra? I was iffy about it since his opponent is undefeated.
Assuncao and Neto should be locks and I am very confident in Werdum. I am pretty confident in E. Silva, too, but not as much as these others, but he is better than Jason High at everything, IMO, and should take it in Brazil.
Thiago/Cavalcante is too risky of a fight to add to any serious parlays, IMO, ck. I did just make two $20 12 pick parlays though and one of them is lined up with three underdogs in T. Silva, Caio, and Hirota. It would be incredible to win it. I'll post them later after the Markes mess gets sorted out and I can make new bets.
Bovada will probably just void that part of the parlay unless they fight within 30 days, so if you originally had 8 bets on your parlay, now you only have 7 and the payoff will reflect accordingly.
I'm pretty confident in Bezerra, he's taking on a late notice opponent and Mendez looked pretty blah in his prelims SF fight from the Melendez/Masvidal card.
Ah... damn it. I sent them an email. I will be angry if they don't reimburse me so that I can add someone else to those parlays or bet more on them. Markes at -250 in my parlays really makes or breaks them, IMO.
Werdum/Assuncao/Neto only wins $203 for $150
Werdum/E. Silva/Assuncao/Neto only $187 for $100
Not good to me.
I was thinking Pepey by decision +345. Also, Erick Silva in rd 1 +175 and a little on him in round 2 at +300.
I also think Assuncao at -320 is a little bit soft and he is definitely worth parlaying, probably with Erick Silva. Hirota is also worth a shot at +150 or higher imo.
I also said something about Nog by tko +700 and Thiago Silva ITD +462 but those have since gone down, unfortunately. I still think the Nog prop might be worth a shot at +530 because I think if he wins it'll be by tko, and that is over double his money line at +255 right now (Though it might get a little better soon).
Kevo was right about Spurs points spread in game 1 of the NBA finals, we all should have been on the ML +200 :(.