Scientific tip for betting on MMA
Smile: You Are About to Lose: Scientific American
Smile: You Are About to Lose A surprising clue to who will win a fight
By Piercarlo Valdesolo
The posed stare-down is a staple of the pre-fight ritual. Two fighters, one day removed from attempting to beat the memories from each other, stand impossibly close, raise their clenched fists and fix their gaze on the other’s eyes as cameras click away. This has always seemed little more than a vehicle for media hype, but new research from psychologists at the University of Illinois suggests that there may be clues in this bit of theatre that predict the results of the fight to come.
Specifically, the researchers hypothesized that there’s something about the fighters’ facial expressions in this standoff that reveal the competitive dynamics between them. A subtle, and perhaps unintentional, communication of submission from one fighter to the other. A recognition of the opponent’s power. The smile.
Facial expressions have long been thought to be reliable indicators of a person’s true feelings. Indeed, in his book “The Expression of the Emotions in Man and Animals” Darwin suggested that such expressions have evolved precisely because they serve this important function. The smile has attracted much empirical attention and has generally been interpreted as a signal of an individuals’ immediate, as well as long-term, well-being. In a particularly interesting study, the frequency and “authenticity” of smiles in high school yearbook photos tended to predict higher levels of subjective well-being years later.
But smiles can mean different things in different contexts. The researchers here were particularly interested in what a smile might mean when displayed between competitors. Instead of merely communicating a fighter’s good spirits, the researchers hypothesized that it would be a submissive signal that reveals a fighter’s reduced hostility and lower willingness to aggress towards the opponent. Prior research supports this possibility. In primates, baring teeth is used as a signal of submission or subordination – a means of avoiding potentially harmful and aggressive physical confrontations with others. In humans, another yearbook study showed that higher levels of testosterone are significantly correlated with smile intensity: the higher the testosterone, the fewer the smiles. And in a separate study people tended to smile more when they were lower in social status.
So, if a fighter knows he is outmatched then this might be revealed when he comes face-to-face with his opponent in the staredown. If he smiles, he knows he’s in trouble. Furthermore, they hypothesized, this display will predict the outcome of the fight. The smiler will be less aggressive and more likely to lose, while the opponent, fueled by the weak display, will be more aggressive and more likely to win.
To test this idea, the researchers first had trained coders rate the intensity of the smiles of 152 Mixed Martial Arts fighters in the posed pre-fight photos and then compared these ratings to objective performance statistics from the fight, retrieved from Fightmetric.com. Outcome variables such as effective striking, effective grappling, takedowns and knockouts were analyzed for both fighters.
As expected, smile intensity predicted both the outcomes of fights as well as the more detailed measures of in-fight hostility. Interestingly, the smiles predicted both reduced hostility from the smiler as well as increased hostility from his opponent. In other words, it seemed both fighters were attuned to the information being communicated in the pre-fight smile. These results held even when controlling for existing differences in skill (i.e. the betting odds of the fight) and strength (height and weight). Though don’t go drastically altering your gambling strategy just yet -the betting line still did a better job overall in predicting fights compared to just smile intensity.