I think Shogun has got the best chance out of all the current UFC light heavyweights, but Machida must be the favourite. If an agressive Shogun with cardio shows up, he's got a good shot.
I know, Machida makes agressive fighters pay, but he makes timid fighters look silly. Someone has got to put it on him, land some kicks, keep him retreating so he can't sit there and pick you apart.
Wishful thinking? Probably, but Shogun is the only one I can see doing it right now.
Machida vs Belfort anyone?