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Thread: MMA Gambling

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by dbader08 View Post
    ^Their all gonna lose lol

    Well, maybe not Mousasi...

    FG what good is you posting your bets after the event going to do for the rest of us

    But for the 158 prelims, depending on the odds, I'm thinking Voelker, Makdessi, Mein, and Elkins. I think Duran and Eduardo might be worth a shot as decent dogs. Ricci and Dillishaw should own...I'm not buying GSP as a 5-1 favorite tho. Hendricks as a slight and Jake E as a moderate favorite (With Marquardt on short notice) I am liking...
    LOL.

    I really like Camozzi, Voelker, Elkins & GSP for the parlay and I'd be willing to put money down on Story, Dan Miller and Roop. I'm taking some mixture of that, depending on what bets net me the most. For me, GSP is like the Pats, you bet on him just to get a surething...

    Jake/Nate & Condit/Hendricks feel too close to risk on a parlay and Makdessi/Cruickshank is iffy for me. Haven't seen enough of Eduardo to judge him against an inconsistent talent like Jabouin.

  2. #32
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    I think Camozzi gets it done as well. I just see him putting the pressure on Ring and wearing him down, and I don't think he has much trouble with Ring's straight punches/kicks anyways. The thing is with Dan Miller's name I think he can be a bigger favorite over Mein that he deserves to be. He wasn't looking too good vs Funch til he finished him in the 3rd.

    GSP/decision is like -190 though. If I bet on him, that might be the route I'd go, personally. Only thing I worry about with Diaz getting finished is cuts...and that's alot more value. But you never know, this could be the first finish GSP gets in a while, I'm sure he wants to finish Nick.

    But yeah, I wouldn't bet anything on Eduardo if he wasn't a decent sized dog, or Mein, for that matter. The thing about guys like Eduardo and Mein is they are still improving while guys like Miller and Jabouin are probably pretty close to their ceiling imo. If they come out and look pretty good then your not gonna get the kind of +money chances you would have gotten before.

    I'm not really that confident in Ellenberger though. But I got faith in Hendricks...I think he can land good punches and not get hit with anything crazy, and win a decision.

    It will be alot better when all the lines are actually out. Should only be another 7 or 8 days.
    Last edited by dbader08; 03-05-2013 at 06:25 AM.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by ckauffman28 View Post
    i look at prop bets, which are usually released on the day of the fight as well... i hit benson/edgar going the distance both times for + money..

    The thing is dont get too hungry when starting out, if a card doesnt seem like money can be made dont be afraid to pass... ive been doing good with 3 to 4 fighter parlays recently as well...
    Nice. I am too nervous to attempt a parlay just starting out. Maybe if I build up a decent bank later on, i'll give it a shot.

    Quote Originally Posted by Fedorlei Gomipierre View Post
    I pull down around $150 or so a card.

    Made pretty sick bank this past weekend because I took Wandy, Tokudome, Lim, Tavares and Stungun.

    The St.Pierre/Diaz card has ALOT of potential for money, Dillashaw and GSP are my "locks" of the night lol.
    Didn't know you were a betting man, FG, but I should have figured since you do pretty well in the pickem's! Will look forward talking bets with you in the future. I deposited $150 in my bank to start out with. Congrats on all those wins! I agree with GSP being a regular "lock." I will be putting something down on him once the rest of the props come out.

    Quote Originally Posted by Supe View Post
    Just put some down on Mir, Mousasi and Thomson
    Good luck on Mir, haha. Mousasi is tempting but I like Gusta so I don't know yet...

    Quote Originally Posted by dbader08 View Post
    GSP/decision is like -190 though. If I bet on him, that might be the route I'd go, personally. Only thing I worry about with Diaz getting finished is cuts...and that's alot more value. But you never know, this could be the first finish GSP gets in a while, I'm sure he wants to finish Nick.
    Where are you seeing that?

    I will announce whenever I make any bets. Is it in bad taste to announce how much I put down and win or lose?

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by MickeyKnox View Post
    Nice. I am too nervous to attempt a parlay just starting out. Maybe if I build up a decent bank later on, i'll give it a shot.



    Didn't know you were a betting man, FG, but I should have figured since you do pretty well in the pickem's! Will look forward talking bets with you in the future. I deposited $150 in my bank to start out with. Congrats on all those wins! I agree with GSP being a regular "lock." I will be putting something down on him once the rest of the props come out.



    Good luck on Mir, haha. Mousasi is tempting but I like Gusta so I don't know yet...



    Where are you seeing that?

    I will announce whenever I make any bets. Is it in bad taste to announce how much I put down and win or lose?
    At 5dimes, under the props section of fighting, the option is there for GSP by decision around -190 or -195.

    I don't see why it would be bad taste, though, to post how much you risk/win/lose.

  5. #35
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    5dimes odds as of this morning

    (Every line without a - signal is at +money)

    Nick Diaz (425) vs GSP (-550) O 4 1/2 -285, U 4 1/2 225

    Carlos Condit (115) vs Johnny Hendricks (-135) O 2 1/2 -185, U 2 1/2 155

    Nate Marquart (145) vs Jake Ellenberger (-165) O 2 1/2 -215, U 2 1/2 170

    Nick Ring (-115) vs Chris Camozzi (-105) O 2 1/2 -285, U 2 1/2 225

    Mike Ricci (-280) vs Collin Fletcher (240) O 2 1/2 -195, U 2 1/2 160

    Bobby Voelker (155) vs Patrick Cote (-175) ) 0 2 1/2 125, U 2 1/2 -155

    Antonio Carvalho (180) vs Darren Elkins (-220) O 2 1/2 -300, U 2 1/2 225

    Dan Miller (245) vs Jordan Mein (-290) O 2 1/2 -205, U 2 1/2 165

    John Makdessi (100) vs Darren Cruickshank (-120) O 2 1/2 -195 U 2 1/2 160

    Rick Story (-400) vs Quinn Mulhern (325) O 2 1/2 -245, U 2 1/2 185

    Issei Tamura (450) vs TJ Dillashaw (-600) O 2 1/2 -185, U 2 1/2 155

    George Roop (120) vs Reuben Duran (-140) O 2 1/2 -105, U 2 1/2 -125

    So basically most fights are at least relatively close and bookies pretty much favor only Roop/Duran and Cote/Voelker to be finished inside the distance.

    What you guys think? I already got small bets on Makdessi and Miller from their opening lines (Makdessi 145, Miller 190), they've since changed. And split out some small bets between Hendricks and Marquardt with plays on their decision props (Got Marquardt's at 320, it's since dropped, and Hendricks' at 210, it's about the same). I beat the line on a couple bets big time which is cool but I should have waited on the Miller one.

    I'm thinking about playing Voelker and Ring, but some people on twitter think Voelker's line might get even higher, and I can't decide if I wanna play Ring's decision prop as it's only 153. I'm sure you could find the decision props pretty easily if you google them I just didn't feel like typing them out or copying and pasting them cause it would be a shitload, but I guess I can if somebody wants me to. Thinking about playing Carvalho, and thinking Ricci is parlay worthy...

    The lines will tighten a little bit more by tomorrow, and they can very well change by Saturday, some pretty substantially, so keep that in mind...
    Last edited by dbader08; 03-14-2013 at 03:22 PM.

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  6. #36
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    If you are the mind set that Hendricks is going to win, betting the under is a good value for that fight.
    LJS-NEMS

  7. #37
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    I disagree. I actually think Hendricks wins a decision...if he can take down Story, Pierce, and especially Koscheck then he can definitely take Condit down. Condit is a hard guy to really catch with a huge shot. I think both guys will have their moments but I think Hendricks will get some takedowns and land enough to win the decision. I think Hendricks is a little too quick and smart for Condit to land his kicks on alot and I think he has the superior hands in close and I think he'll be able to get inside on Condit. Even if he knocks him out I still profit some, just profit really well for what I bet if he wins by decision.

    The odds on the under definitely aren't bad though for 2 guys who can put a hurting on somebody. But at the same time guys come out showing alot of respect sometimes in fights like these...and especially if some grappling ensues early, it might not ever get close to being a finish from either guy...

    I hope this isn't too big, because it's awesome.

  8. #38
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    I agree with that. I actually think Condit wins a UD. I just believe that if Johnny comes out the winner in this one, it will be via some sort of finish in the first 2 rounds
    LJS-NEMS

  9. #39
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    Any plans MickeyKnox?

    I hope this isn't too big, because it's awesome.

  10. 03-15-2013, 05:16 PM


  11. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by KevoOnTheRadio View Post
    What site do my american brothers use for online betting?
    5dimes.com

    They release full lines earlier than anyone for MMA, they have a shitload of other sports, lots of props, and are a highly rated sportsbook overall.

    St Pierre by decision was up to -250, now it's dropped to -190, which is interesting. Diaz inside distance dropped from +650 to +485 the last few days. Hendricks by decision is down to +165 (I got it at +210). I also got Makdessi at +145 who's now at +100. Some lines bounce like crazy the day before/of the fight. Just gotta be sharper than the general public. I think Hendricks' finishing ability is being overrated a bit from his recent knockouts. I think he has a tough fight with Carlos but wins a UD.
    Last edited by dbader08; 03-15-2013 at 05:22 PM.

    I hope this isn't too big, because it's awesome.

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