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  1. #61
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    (yeah I'm double posting)

    So I was giving the WSOF card some thought today while I was at work all day.

    I retract a few of my previous statements. I expect JZ to win the fight as he is much more experienced and Gaethje has not fought anyone with any significance at all. He is undefeated with a bunch of knockouts, but against nobodies. I don't really know why JZ is the underdog.

    I am still firm on Filho beating Branch. The only reason Filho would lose this fight is if he lets himself lose it. He has better BJJ, submissions, and KO power. Branch has a ten inch reach but I don't think he has the striking to make it a factor against Filho. Filho is now at +175, btw.

    Simpson VS Burkman is a really hard fight to call. Burkman is a huge underdog when he shouldn't be. Both guys are going to bring the same style (like you said, Leuc), and Burkman just came off a dominant win over Gerald Harris. I think he has a great chance.

    Moraes/Nam is a hard fight to call as well. Moraes is a two time Muay Thai champion and a BJJ brown belt while Nam is from Team Quest. Nam doesn't have comparable stand up but he does have KO power, and Moraes has been TKO'd twice. I expect Moraes to win but if Nam comes in and sticks to a plan of grinding Moraes out, he could possibly take it. Both guys are coming off impressive wins over notable opponents.

    As for Arlovski/Rumble, I want to say Arlovski all day like I had already said but Arlovski's chin is what makes him a risky bet against anyone, especially against Rumble who probably has a one track mind to coming in and trying to land big strikes. It just doesn't sit well with me. If Arlovski had the chin, I'd take him all-day-long. But he doesn't.

    I really want to make some parlays on these fights but they're just really risky. I don't know if i'm going to or not.

  2. #62
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    WSOF 2: Paulo Filho circus begins, panic attack delays Atlantic City arrival of troubled Brazilian

    ...


    MMAFighting.com reports that Filho suffered a panic attack in Brazil, delaying his arrival in the "Garden State" and putting his 185-pound main card bout against Branch in doubt.

    As of this writing, Filho has apparently conquered his mind and is on a plane en route to the tristate area; however, that could all change in a matter of minutes. And there are still 72 hours until WSOF 2 airs live on NBC Sports network, which seems like a risky proposition at the moment under the circumstances and considering his unstable and unpredicabtle past.
    Probably explains the odds fluctuations, but they're back to where they were.

    Hopefully little donkey doesn't pull guard and just hold on for 15 minutes. If he's aggressive and goes for takedowns, there's no way he doesn't beat Branch.

  3. #63
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    I like Filho +180, Gaethje -145, and Johnson +100. I also think Gaethje-JZ over 2 1/2 @ -155 is worth starting a parlay with...but really you should probably make one or the other unless you feel pretty confident.

    Gaethje has really good movement, whereas JZ doesn't utilize too much footwork. Gaethje has great leg kicks too so I could definitely see him landing some. He has pretty good wrestling and a solid clinch game, too, and pretty good hands. Seems like a solid all around fighter with alot of potential.

    I don't see why Branch's line is so high. He's a decent fighter everywhere, but I feel like Filho will beat him if he's on. You know what your getting with Branch. There's a chance Filho can show up and look pretty good or not so good. Worth a shot @ +180 imo.

    Arlovski just hasn't looked that great lately. He looked pretty decent when Sylvia gassed out in their recent fight, but hasn't impressed me much really in a while honestly. It also seems like he will show up in pretty good shape for one fight and decent shape for the next, and to me he looked better for the Sylvia fight than this one. AJ imo has quicker hands, better kicks, better movement, and I guess a better chin even though it's kind of up in the air because he hasn't really been hit too solidly that much. He has the cardio issues but AA isn't the kind of fighter to really apply a whole lot of pressure on you, plus maybe it will be better now that he's not cutting weight.
    Last edited by dbader08; 03-23-2013 at 08:36 PM.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by dbader08 View Post
    I don't see why Branch's line is so high. He's a decent fighter everywhere, but I feel like Filho will beat him if he's on. You know what your getting with Branch. There's a chance Filho can show up and look pretty good or not so good. Worth a shot @ +180 imo.
    My money went to Filho, because even a Filho who shows up talking to spirits should be able to control where the fight goes; he's stronger than Branch and people forget that he's a blackbelt in judo. Branch's striking isn't superb, he probably has the edge, but he's not known for KO power, and Filho's never been knocked out.

    The only way I see Filho losing this is if he just pulls guard and sits on the bottom communing with the dead.

    If AA and Filho can win their bouts, I'll come out with some coin on this card, regardless of who wins between JZ and Gaethje

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leucoethiops View Post
    My money went to Filho, because even a Filho who shows up talking to spirits should be able to control where the fight goes; he's stronger than Branch and people forget that he's a blackbelt in judo. Branch's striking isn't superb, he probably has the edge, but he's not known for KO power, and Filho's never been knocked out.

    The only way I see Filho losing this is if he just pulls guard and sits on the bottom communing with the dead.

    If AA and Filho can win their bouts, I'll come out with some coin on this card, regardless of who wins between JZ and Gaethje
    I agree about Filho. These odds just don't make sense to me. Hopefully it works out to our benefit.

    I made 5 parlays.

    Filho/JZ - $50/$239

    Filho/JZ/Marloes/Simpson/Arlovski and Rumble - $10/219

    Filho/JZ/Maroloes/Burkman/ Arlovski and Rumble - $10/$556

    Total $90/$458-795

    I'll say it again, this card makes me uneasy but i'll roll the dice. Good luck, Leuc.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by MickeyKnox View Post
    I made 5 parlays.

    Filho/JZ - $50/$239

    Filho/JZ/Marloes/Simpson/Arlovski and Rumble - $10/219

    Filho/JZ/Maroloes/Burkman/ Arlovski and Rumble - $10/$556

    Total $90/$458-795

    I'll say it again, this card makes me uneasy but i'll roll the dice. Good luck, Leuc.
    *Sad face*

  7. #67
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    Yeah man one thing you gotta consider is odds makers aren't idiots. Whether it's inside info or just really knowing what the hell they are talking about your not going to find too many easy + money plays. I've found out how smart bookies are the hard way over the past year.

    Of coarse any fighter can come out and kick ass. But I guess the fact that Branch is a solid fighter and Filho is inconsistent and never really lived up to his potential shined through in this case...

    Mickeyknox, man, no reason to risk the same fighter in all 3 parlays. I learned such lessons the hard way as well. Got burned on Barboza as a big fave vs Varner, and Brandao vs Elkins, as well as Miller vs Dollaway. You'll never regret being conservative when it comes to betting.
    Last edited by dbader08; 03-24-2013 at 08:23 AM.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leucoethiops View Post
    *Sad face*
    Haha, yeppp. We win some, we lose some. I lost $90 but thankfully it was winnings cash and although it was a loss, it wasn't a huge loss. It is always very disappointing to lose though. Til next time!


    Quote Originally Posted by dbader08 View Post
    Yeah man one thing you gotta consider is odds makers aren't idiots. Whether it's inside info or just really knowing what the hell they are talking about your not going to find too many easy + money plays. I've found out how smart bookies are the hard way over the past year.

    Of coarse any fighter can come out and kick ass. But I guess the fact that Branch is a solid fighter and Filho is inconsistent and never really lived up to his potential shined through in this case...

    Mickeyknox, man, no reason to risk the same fighter in all 3 parlays. I learned such lessons the hard way as well. Got burned on Barboza as a big fave vs Varner, and Brandao vs Elkins, as well as Miller vs Dollaway. You'll never regret being conservative when it comes to betting.
    Yeah, sometimes it works well for you, sometimes it doesn't. I knew I was taking a huge risk in the card last night, especially making my common factors in Filho, JZ, and Moraes, but especially Filho... Normally I'd do that with guys like Jones, GSP, and so forth. On paper, he should have beaten Branch. But we all know how MMA goes and that all the speculation really doesn't mean shit up until the fight actually happens.

    But damn, Filho sure did look like shit last night. Congrats to Branch.

    I was disappointed because I was confident in Burkman and he ended up winning. I wish I was confident enough to put some some on him alone at +220. He kicked Simpson's ass.

  9. #69
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    All good points and it would have been a very nice payout if they could have pulled it out.

    I also thought there was value in Burkman. He's a good grappler with good takedown D and Simpson's striking isn't very impressive after about 1 round of fighting, but damn I guess Burkman got to him quick.

  10. #70
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    It's been a while since I posted in this thread. I have been taking a break ever since I lost my Bovada bank on basketball (the Heat losing their streak to the bulls). I've wanted to post about and play some past events but didn't.

    I am thinking about putting some money down on the event this weekend though. What do you guys think about it?

    UFC on FX 8 - Arena Jaragua Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Lucas "Mineiro" Martins
    -265
    Jeremy Larsen
    +205

    Jussier "Formiga" da Silva
    -150
    Chris "Kamikaze" Cariaso
    +120

    John "Hands of Stone" Lineker
    -155
    Azamat "Tough Guy" Gashimov
    +125

    Fabio Maldonado
    -250
    Roger "The Hulk" Hollett
    +195

    Iuri "Marajo" Alcantara
    -500
    Iliarde Santos
    +350

    Paulo Thiago
    -165
    Michel Richard "Trator" dos Prazeres
    +135

    Gleison Tibau
    -235
    John Cholish
    +185

    Francisco "Massaranduba" Trinaldo
    -340
    Mike "The Wolverine" Rio
    +260

    Nik "The Carny" Lentz
    -145
    Hacran "Barnabe" Dias
    +115

    Rafael "Sapo" Natal
    -325
    Joao "The Brazilian Samurai" Zeferino
    +250

    Rafael Dos Anjos
    -190
    Evan Dunham
    +155

    Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza
    -600
    Chris Camozzi
    +400

    Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort
    -105
    Luke Rockhold
    -125

    I am thinking of at least one ten pick parlay with Lineker, Maldonado, Alcantara, Thiago, Tibau, Trinaldo, Natal, Anjos, Jacare, and Vitor. $1 turns into $36.23

    Vitor at -105 himself is pretty tempting in itself, IMO. I really don't think Rockhold overcomes all the odds that are stacked against him against Vitor this weekend.

    EDIT:

    If you add Martins and da Silva to that parlay, it yields $85.60 per dollar.
    Last edited by m1ckeykn0x; 05-17-2013 at 12:16 AM.

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