(yeah I'm double posting)
So I was giving the WSOF card some thought today while I was at work all day.
I retract a few of my previous statements. I expect JZ to win the fight as he is much more experienced and Gaethje has not fought anyone with any significance at all. He is undefeated with a bunch of knockouts, but against nobodies. I don't really know why JZ is the underdog.
I am still firm on Filho beating Branch. The only reason Filho would lose this fight is if he lets himself lose it. He has better BJJ, submissions, and KO power. Branch has a ten inch reach but I don't think he has the striking to make it a factor against Filho. Filho is now at +175, btw.
Simpson VS Burkman is a really hard fight to call. Burkman is a huge underdog when he shouldn't be. Both guys are going to bring the same style (like you said, Leuc), and Burkman just came off a dominant win over Gerald Harris. I think he has a great chance.
Moraes/Nam is a hard fight to call as well. Moraes is a two time Muay Thai champion and a BJJ brown belt while Nam is from Team Quest. Nam doesn't have comparable stand up but he does have KO power, and Moraes has been TKO'd twice. I expect Moraes to win but if Nam comes in and sticks to a plan of grinding Moraes out, he could possibly take it. Both guys are coming off impressive wins over notable opponents.
As for Arlovski/Rumble, I want to say Arlovski all day like I had already said but Arlovski's chin is what makes him a risky bet against anyone, especially against Rumble who probably has a one track mind to coming in and trying to land big strikes. It just doesn't sit well with me. If Arlovski had the chin, I'd take him all-day-long. But he doesn't.
I really want to make some parlays on these fights but they're just really risky. I don't know if i'm going to or not.