His only chance would be if Jones is not training seriously, but if Jones is training as hard or even harder as for his past fights, it will be a walk in the park for him.
Chael has nothing for Jones. He is not a good striker, he has not submissions at all, he is not as explosive or athletic as Jones. He just has his wrestling, but I doubt he will be able to lay on Jones for 4 rounds like he did with Anderson in the first fight. And even if he takes Jones down, he will get sub'd.