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Thread: UFC158: Betting Lines

  1. #1
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    Default UFC158: Betting Lines

    I figure some people may wanna know.

    NICK DIAZ +355
    GEORGES ST. PIERRE -475

    CARLOS CONDIT +110
    JOHNY HENDRICKS -140

    NATE MARQUARDT +135
    JAKE ELLENBERGER -165

    CHRIS CAMOZZI -105
    NICK RING -125

    COLIN FLETCHER +230
    MIKE RICCI -300

    BOBBY VOELKER +150
    PATRICK COTE -180

    JOHN MAKDESSI -110
    DARON CRUICKSHANK -120

    I can add any of the other undercard fights if anyone is interested. I will update on Saturday if there are any significant changes.

  2. 03-14-2013, 09:44 PM

    Reason
    misread odds

  3. #2
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    Fletcher is the one I'd put money on. I'd lean towards Ricci pulling out the decision, but it's his first LW fight (and presumably his first cut to).

    My guess is, being from Tristar, and facing a Brit, he'll have been drilling his wrestling non-stop, so I'm thinking Ricci by decision, but at those odds, Fletcher is probably the best bet listed.

    Makdessi and Ellenberger, are IMO, safe bets; but not high yielding.

  4. #3
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    I got all the money lines and over/unders added in MickeyKnox's thread for every fight on the card...

    Liking Nate, Hendricks, Ring, Voelker, Miller, and Makdessi (got him @+145)...

    I hope this isn't too big, because it's awesome.

  5. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leucoethiops View Post
    Fletcher is the one I'd put money on. I'd lean towards Ricci pulling out the decision, but it's his first LW fight (and presumably his first cut to).

    My guess is, being from Tristar, and facing a Brit, he'll have been drilling his wrestling non-stop, so I'm thinking Ricci by decision, but at those odds, Fletcher is probably the best bet listed.
    This isn't Ricci's first fight at LW, nor is it his first cut. He fought Pat Curran at LW at Bellator 14. I think he was only at WW for TUF. I could see Ricci winning by decision as well, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Fletcher pull off a submission.

    Quote Originally Posted by AnchorPunch View Post
    So if I don't sin, when I die, I go to Canada? Right?

  6. #5
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    im doing some form of Condit, marquart, Ring, and Dillashaw in parlays... gotta wait till after wiegh ins though

  7. #6
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    What site do you guys in the USA use for online betting?
    Quote Originally Posted by Sick_Lunatic View Post
    I've always liked strudel.



  8. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fe1 View Post
    This isn't Ricci's first fight at LW, nor is it his first cut. He fought Pat Curran at LW at Bellator 14. I think he was only at WW for TUF. I could see Ricci winning by decision as well, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Fletcher pull off a submission.
    You're right, TUF is where I saw that ugly, ugly man.

  9. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by KevoOnTheRadio View Post
    What site do you guys in the USA use for online betting?
    5Dimes Sportsbook, Casino, Racebook, Poker Room and Lottery Room

    I hope this isn't too big, because it's awesome.

  10. #9
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    GSP, Elkins, Story and Dillashaw are my locks.

    Voelker, Miller, Condit and Ricci are my risky-ish bets. I'd also put a little bit of play money on Roop, but not too certain on him coming off the layoff, so I didn't touch it.

    I think Makdessi/Cruickshanck has the makings of a stylistic tossup, depending on how Makdessi chooses to approach the fight, that's a risky fight IMO. And I'm not even touching the Ring fight because he fights to razor close decisions and, despite my personal belief that Camozzi will beat him, that's a tough fight to bet on.

  11. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fedorlei Gomipierre View Post
    GSP, Elkins, Story and Dillashaw are my locks.
    I agree with this, I just hope Story doesn't sleep on Mulhern.

    I put my coin down on a parley between GSP, Dillashaw, and Story; relatively low risk, but relatively low reward.

    Quote Originally Posted by Fedorlei Gomipierre View Post
    Voelker, Miller, Condit and Ricci are my risky-ish bets. I'd also put a little bit of play money on Roop, but not too certain on him coming off the layoff, so I didn't touch it.
    For me, the value bets are in Miller and Fletcher:

    Miller was a C+ MW, and probably will be a C+ WW, but he's battle tested, durable, and can be slick. Mein is a B to B- level WW, with wins over some noteable competition; if he can keep it standing, the fight should go his way.

    Fletcher and Ricci is a tossup where I'm concerned. Ricci has faced better competition, but lost to all of it.

    With odds for Miller and Fletcher at +235 and +245 respectively, I chose to throw down minimal, but equal amounts of coin on both fighters. I also chose to pay the same amount into a parlay at a 10:1 payout. If one wins, and the other loses, I break even. If both win, I'll come out with $65 for the $15 investment. If neither win, I guess I'm shit outta luck; but still ahead if my 3 odds-on-favourites all pull out the 'W'.

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