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Thread: matt brown vs. thiago alves slated for FOX sports 1 debut card

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by trustkill View Post
    I imagine that Brown will have the reach advantage. Thiago may have superior striking skills, but those skills will be neutralized if he's stuffed up against the fence. I think you're underselling Brown's abilities.
    Were Koscheck & Hughes able to stuff Alves against the fence? They're far superior wrestlers to Brown. Alves may not have great wrestling technique but he is stocky & very strong. It's no easy feat to push him around.

    Brown has a 3 inch height advantage & a 6 inch reach advantage. However, if he's attempting to stuff Alves up against the fence than that advantage is nullified. We've seen superior strikers makeup for those genetic disadvantages all the time (Nelson & Hunt immediately come to mind).

    Brown hasn't beaten anyone in Pitbull's league. In addition to Hughes & Kos, Alves also has wins over Karo Parisyan (who was quite good at the time) & Chris Lytle (who defeated Brown quite easily).
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    Matt Brown by blitzkrieg TKO in the 1st.




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  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adambomb View Post
    Were Koscheck & Hughes able to stuff Alves against the fence? They're far superior wrestlers to Brown...
    ...

    ...wins over Karo Parisyan (who was quite good at the time) & Chris Lytle (who defeated Brown quite easily).
    Adam, you're posts are usually sooooo much better than this. This is MMA math at it's worst.

    To put it another way, 5 years ago, Fedor probably wouldn't have lost to Werdum.

    Alves has skills. They've been on the decline for years. Brown, on the other hand, is on the rise. I'm not saying Brown is a lock, I'm saying comparing Alves at his peak and Brown at his worst makes no sense to begin with, but is even worse when you consider the fights your basing your points on occurred 5-6 years ago, and a LOT has changed since then.

    It's a good fight. I can't pick it right now, but it will either propel Alves back into legitimacy--I don't have him as a top 25 WW right now--or put Brown a couple wins--over ranked fighters--away from a title shot.

    But in no way do I think the Alves of 5 years ago bears any resemblance to the fighter we've seen lately. His most convincing win in the intervening time--and that's FIVE WHOLE YEARS--was against a non-top 50 WW making his octagon debut. He might still have something left in the tank, but that is by no means a safe bet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rivethead View Post
    Adam, you're posts are usually sooooo much better than this. This is MMA math at it's worst.

    To put it another way, 5 years ago, Fedor probably wouldn't have lost to Werdum.

    Alves has skills. They've been on the decline for years. Brown, on the other hand, is on the rise. I'm not saying Brown is a lock, I'm saying comparing Alves at his peak and Brown at his worst makes no sense to begin with, but is even worse when you consider the fights your basing your points on occurred 5-6 years ago, and a LOT has changed since then.

    It's a good fight. I can't pick it right now, but it will either propel Alves back into legitimacy--I don't have him as a top 25 WW right now--or put Brown a couple wins--over ranked fighters--away from a title shot.

    But in no way do I think the Alves of 5 years ago bears any resemblance to the fighter we've seen lately. His most convincing win in the intervening time--and that's FIVE WHOLE YEARS--was against a non-top 50 WW making his octagon debut. He might still have something left in the tank, but that is by no means a safe bet.

    rh
    Disagree on your Fedor point but that's another discussion. Fedor lost to Werdum because he failed to respect Fabricio's biggest strength. He was always ultra-aggressive & it cost him that night.

    Basing my entire argument on how Alves beat Lytle but Lytle beat Brown is MMA math.

    It's not MMA math to note one fighter has beaten far superior opponents in the past, specifically decorated wrestlers who were & still are better grapplers than Brown will ever be.

    I find it funny how you discredit Alves' recent performances yet say Brown is "on the rise" even though Brown has fought no one even close to the top 20 or 30 welterweights in the world.

    While Alves lost against Kampmann, he looked good & it could easily be argued he won the first 2 rounds before being submitted in the 3rd. Winning a round or two against Kampmann is more impressive than anything Matt Brown has done on his current win streak.

    Here's all you need to know about Brown's 5 fight win streak:

    • 4 of the opponents faced Brown were in their 2nd UFC Fight
    • Mike Swick fought Brown in his second fight back after a 30 month layoff
    • 2 of the opponents were coming off losses, & were cut after losing to Brown


    Alves' performance in a loss against a top 10 opponent & his fights from 5 years ago (also against top 10 opponents) tell me a lot more about what he's capable of than Brown crushing a bunch of cans. He may as well have been in King of the Cage or Shark Fights.
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    It matters more about what skills the fighter possesses and intends to use at fight time, not who someone has beat 3 years ago.

    I would look at the injury that Alves incurred, which required two surgeries last year above comparing previous opponents. I would also look at which fighter has more confidence, drive and momentum coming into this fight. To me, it seems Matt has the psychological advantage, perhaps physical as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AnchorPunch View Post
    I can see both sides of it. Alves hasn't beat a top 10 fighter in 5 years but he's probably still a step up from Swick and Mein. It's certainly not a jump in competition but does seem like a gradual rise for Brown.

    Alves loves to brawl too, so I can see him falling into Brown's game. At the same time, a few hard leg kicks could be all it takes to shake things up.

    Tough call, I'm giving Brown a slight edge. Plus I love seeing him win
    I think you're right man, leg kicks could be a key to victory for Alves. He's far more technically sound a striker, and will need to slow Brown down and make him hesitant to throw. I don't doubt Alves has the TDD to keep it on the feet, and if he can resist the urge to brawl I see him finishing Brown late or picking him apart for the UD.


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    If we want to get superduper mma mathy then we could mention that Matt Brown finished a guy in Mein that had just recently finished a guy that had never been finished in Dan Miller who had NOT been finished by the likes of Bisping, Sonnen, Marquart, and Paul Harris.

    Thiago Alves on the other hand got finished by the Hitman who was in turn was finished by Hendricks in short order who in turn finished Jon Fitch really quickly who in turn TKO up kicked Thiago Alves seven years ago for the finish. If that doesn't tell the tale of the tape then I don't know what will.

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    Should be a barnburner! Matt Brown is on a tear, with Alves not having been active in a year and coming off injuries and surgery.

    I'm taking Thiago in this one, but enjoy Matt Brown's fights as well. Hate it when two of the guys you like are duking it out. I think Alves is more well-rounded and a more powerful Striker, I'd love to be proven wrong tho!

    tough one to pick
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    Adambomb to say Brown isn't on the rise is insane! Now who's going to win is debatable.
    Alves hasn't shown anything what he use to be. I do agree the best Alves would beat the best Brown, but Alves doesn't have a time machine.

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