He is by far the least hit champion, something along the lines of only 21% of his opponents strikes land, and he has a takedown accuracy of around 60-70. Sorry if you have forgotten just how good Cruz really is. But as far as match-ups go the guy is an utter nightmare for anyone.
Doesn't matter how he has been the least hit champion in the past. It matters that, at present, he still has not recovered from 2 career threatening injuries. Odds should be unanimously in Barao's favour.