Yes, sonnen won the first round. I didn't see anything close to a beatdown.
I also didn't see anything close to an illegal knee to the face.
If sonnen and silva fought 10 times, I can't see sonnen winning more than one of them.
Even if Anderson comes back and sucks, that's not an indication that he "was too old and past his prime" when he faced Weidman. You'll be looking at more than a year of ring rust and a return from a very traumatic injury when he gets back.
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I think in a theoretical best of 10, Silva wins 4 in devastating fashion within the 1st or 2nd. I think in the other 6 Sonnen wins multiple rounds, but would probably still lose 3 or 4 of those. My very scientific conclusion is that Sonnen wins 24-28% of their fights.
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So Weidman beat Davis in wrestling in college? Didn't know that...
I'm sold on Weidman being extremely good at all dimensions of the sport. However, I think his weakness is his speed, where I see him being a slower MW than most. IMO, Machida's footwork makes him a tougher stylistic matchup; worse than Munoz, Vitor, Jacare, or even Silva.
I'm not saying Silva threw the knee to the face, it wasn't intentional, he threw it to the sternum, but it did rise to the face. If that IS legal, then disregard my illegal comment, but I thought the knee can't hit the face.
Going by the first fight and the way things were going in the second fight prior to the spinning backfist, Chael wins 7 of 10.
These strengths more so than speed I think will play a factor if Weidman beats Machida - after all, it's not like Shogun, Rampage or Davis were lightning quick when they beat him so it's not a prerequisite (although prime Shogun is definitely faster than Weidman).
I think Weidman has the skill necessary to back Machida against the fence and throw combos (where he looked ordinary against Rampage and even Mousasi at times) or enter into a clinch for takedowns without exposing himself unduly to counter fire. I think he's savvy enough to draw Machida's left body kick and time it for a takedown. I don't think he'll charge onto a counter left hand like Bader did, because he's far too defensively sound for that. I don't think we'll see him charge across the Octagon to punt Machida's lead leg when he backs up a la Shogun either, but you never know.
Weidman has the tools based on his body of work so far, no doubt about it. Putting it together when it counts is another matter. Machida is incredibly skilled and no easy out for anyone south of heavyweight. That's why I'm so amped for this one
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