Well, you're welcome to your opinion.Going by the first fight and the way things were going in the second fight prior to the spinning backfist, Chael wins 7 of 10.
I've never bought into the "Silva's rib was broken before he fought sonnen" myth; but I do think he was injured with a tender rib. I think sonnen's first takedown cracked the rib, and set up the scene for the rest of that fight. But if you watch that fight, there are at least 4 instances where sonnen was setting himself up for a triangle because he still ground fights like a wrestler and his default is tripod up instead of surrendering base, as someone from a stronger BJJ background would do. His submission defense has always been dreadful--and I'm not exaggerating when I say that. So even though he's shown a little improvement later in his career, I believe there is a strong likelihood that he'd get submitted if he sticks to his typical routine. His ground and pound has never been strong enough to account for a likely finish, so I don't ever see a repeat of that first fight happening.
Not to mention, he was juiced to the gills in the first fight. It wasn't TRT, it was TRT abuse. He admitted to that when he was questioned about his dosages in the AC hearing, even though nothing came of that. His more recent issues raise the specter that he was potentially abusing during the second fight [and maybe actually cycling on/off] as well. Obviously, nothing can ever be proven there, but minimally, you have to admit that there is at least as much doubt as to his status as there is with AO and Vitor. So I don't really know that his previous performances can be said to be a good foundation, even for the always-flawed MMA math.
But you're definitely welcome to believe whatever you like.
I'm really very excited about this bout. I think Machida is actually a more dangerous matchup for Chris than Anderson was.