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UFC 144 Predictions And Analysis
Posted on Feb 23, 2012
By MATT MOLGAARD
MMANEWS.COM Staff Writer The UFC will return to Japan this weekend for the first time in more than a decade as UFC 144 gets underway. Headlining the event (which features an unprecedented seven pay-per-view bouts) is a title collision pitting lightweight champ, Frankie Edgar against the surging top contender, Ben Henderson. The co-main event is comprised of a pair of dangerous light heavyweights: Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Ryan Bader will wage war for a scheduled three rounds. Frankie Edgar vs. Ben Henderson: Frankie Edgar (14-1-1) has kept his grip on the lightweight title since snatching it from the waist of B.J. Penn at UFC 112 in April of 2010. During the elapsed time he’s again battered Penn and collided with Gray Maynard twice, settling for a draw upon their first encounter, before knocking the Xtreme Couture representative out in their rematch at UFC 136. “The Answer” has looked quite crisp in recent outings, and seems to still be improving with each trek to the octagon. His lightning fast hands, powerful double leg takedown and fluid footwork have made him an extremely tough out for anyone at 155 pounds, regardless of disciplinary base. Ben Henderson (15-2), in many ways mirrors Edgar. The former WEC champion has been on a tear since migrating to the UFC, disposing of Mark Bocek and two top contenders in Clay Guida and Jim Miller. Coincidentally, his offensive attack is rather similar to the champion’s: he moves very well, utilizes precise strikes, and isn’t foreign to explosive takedowns. Where Ben may have an edge, is the kicking department; “Smooth” appears much more comfortable launching hellacious low and high kicks than Edgar, at this point. Who dictates the pace here determines who exits the cage with a title to boast of. I don’t see many wild swings in momentum a la the Edgar vs. Maynard bouts. I think these two are so evenly matched that the first to truly draw blood will likely determine where the fight takes place, and both men are capable of winning from any position, while bringing a certain durability to the contest that few fighters rival. I don’t expect cardio to be a player in this bout either, as both of these young men have showcased impressive gas tanks in the past. I see Henderson looking to use his kicks to set up strikes, but I think Edgar’s timing will be as precise as needed. He’ll secure the majority of the fight’s takedowns and do a fair job of controlling and punishing from the top position. Expect a highly technical display of violence here, as Frankie Edgar retains his title after picking up three of the five rounds on the judges’ scorecards. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Ryan Bader: On paper, an assessment of this fight is as basic and brief as it comes: we’ve got your classic striker versus grappler collision, and the man able to impose his will early is going to exit the cage victorious. “Rampage” (32-9) has experienced one of the most storied careers in the history of the sport, and his physical ventures are well documented. Bader (13-2) in contrast, is a relatively green fighter (especially when compared to a guy like Jackson) who’s struggled to prove his worth at the top of the 205 pound food chain. Bader’s got some wrestling to lean on, but Jackson is no slouch, and typically proffers an example of sound takedown defense. Ryan however, doesn’t have much of an answer for Quinton’s boxing; he’s proven a fairly elusive foe in the past, but he can be hit, and a guy like Rampage is well suited for the task of touching his chin. Don’t expect this fight to surpass the 10 minute mark; “Rampage” stuffs a few early takedowns before landing a bomb that puts Ryan to sleep early in the second frame. It’s been well over three years since Rampage rendered an opponent unconscious with his fists, but that ends this weekend, in Japan. Cheick Kongo vs. Mark Hunt: I’m actually a bit puzzled as to why this match was put together. Mark Hunt needs to pick up a string of wins if he wants to really seize full confidence in himself. At 7-7 his transition from K-1 hasn’t been the smoothest, and part of the reason for the shoddy record is the level of competition he’s been thrown in with. Mark Hunt was never given the opportunity to develop as a mixed martial artist; he was fed to the wolves from the outset. Cheick Kongo (17-6-2) may not be knocking on the door of title contention, but he’s a bit too experienced and too diverse for a guy like Hunt. A sizeable chunk of the MMA world expects a wild slugfest between these two strikers, but I don’t. Kongo is an intelligent guy inside the cage, and I’m inclined to believe he’s well aware of the one punch power possessed by Hunt. Look for Kongo to utilize his highly underrated offensive wrestling to take this fight to the canvas early. From there, he’ll take top control and dish out some gnarly ground and pound. Hunt’s a tough guy who’s not likely to wilt easily, but by round three the referee will have seen enough punishment to warrant a valid stoppage.
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