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MMANEWS.COM FEATURE: UFC 145: In-Depth Predictions & Analysis
Posted on Apr 19, 2012
By MATT MOLGAARD
MMANEWS.COM Staff Writer The UFC heads to the Philips Arena in Atlanta on Saturday, and fans will be treated to one of the most anticipated fights in years, as light heavyweight title holder Jon Jones will look to firmly cement his growing legacy by eliminating one of his final true tests in the division: Rashad Evans. This is a fight that’s been long overdue, and at this point both men look hungry to wear the strap upon conclusion of the fight. But Jones versus Evans isn’t the only intriguing bout on the card, contrary to what casual fans would have you believe. The main card is actually loaded with collisions that could produce some serious fireworks. Surging welterweight prospect (and dare I say potential future champion) Rory MacDonald will meet a refined striker in Che Mills, an underappreciated commodity who possesses a fairly well rounded game (forget the dismissal of his submission prowess). This is a guy who looks for submissions from top and bottom, constantly attempting to illicit a fight finishing tap, and he’s got a unique ability to pull guard in unpredictable fashion that’s been known to catch his opponents off guard. Rory Mac is the obvious favorite, but there’s definitely no guarantee he emerges victorious. Brendan Schaub will see action for the first time since being knocked out by Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC 134, and he’ll be facing quite the interesting challenge in the form of rugged veteran Ben Rothwell. Miguel Torres also makes his way back to the cage for what promises to be one of his stiffest tests in some time, as he’ll duke it out with surging prospect Michael McDonald. While some have criticized this particular lineup of fights, I can’t get behind that. I think fans are in store for some absolutely remarkable fights come Saturday night. Jon Jones vs. Rashad Evans: It’s been a long time since a title fight produced genuine mystery. But that’s exactly what we’re in store for here. There are so many wild intangibles to factor in here that making a prediction is really rather difficult. The “easy” bet is that Jones steamrolls his way to a fairly easy victory… but I’m just not buying into that, for a single moment. These former friends and training partners know each other quite well due to their time as teammates under the tutelage of Greg Jackson, and the time invested training with one another presents curve balls for both men. Especially for the champion, who will be faced with the tough task of toppling a quality competitor who is far more familiar with his style than any past opponent he’s faced. That said, it’s important to note that “Bones” isn’t exactly a stranger to Evans’s style either. For Rashad Evans, perfection will be a necessity. He cannot afford to make mistakes in this fight, as Jones will not hesitate to capitalize on any opening that presents itself. Few possess a killer instinct like the champion. Therefore, Rashad is going to need to bring some variety to his attack, and he must close the distance as often as possible. It’s not quite as simple as mixing up his striking and transitioning into takedowns. Jones expects that. What Evans must do to dethrone the champ is turn this into a brutal brawl. He needs to hurt the champion early, and he needs to stay in his face, avoid the beautiful trips and upper body control of Jones; a wrestling match will not win him this bout. As for the Jon, he’s got a little room for a hiccup or two. He can make a mistake and still emerge the victor here. The otherworldly reach this man possesses automatically gifts him a significant advantage that’s going to be difficult for Evans to overcome. Couple that with extremely potent wrestling, arguably the most devastating ground and pound in the division, an extremely unpredictable offensive assault and improving cardio and it’s difficult to see the fight going any direction other than Jones’. Look for Rashad to show Jones a few things he doesn’t typically see inside the cage: namely diverse transitions and extreme tenacity. I won’t be shocked to see Jones finally forced to fight from his back at some point in the fight. That said, I see Jones being a bit more athletically gifted, and given the massive reach differential between the two, I think distance is going to play a major role in this fight. Jon jones will survive a few hairy moments inside the octagon before hurting Rashad early in the third frame. I suspect Jones will pounce for a TKO stoppage from the top position.
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