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MMANEWS.COM FEATURE: UFC 145: In-Depth Predictions & Analysis
Posted on Apr 19, 2012
Rory MacDonald vs. Che Mills: The winner of this fight will not position himself for an immediate title shot. The division is just too stacked, with too many top contenders waiting in the wings to tangle with either Georges St. Pierre, or interim champion, Carlos Condit. However, a win for MacDonald will go a long way in proving his status as top welterweight prospect. For Che Mills, this is an opportunity to pull the greatest upset of his career and launch himself into the upper echelon of the 170 pound division.
MacDonald looks to be a complete fighter in every sense of the term. His striking is improving at an alarming rate, his top control is excellent and he unleashes some absolutely hellish ground and pound. He’s also a natural finisher, which makes him a constant threat to whoever gazes at him from the opposite side of the octagon. His wrestling still has room for growth, but fortunately for him, Mills isn’t exactly a powerhouse wrestler, and the lone question mark in Rory’s game isn’t likely to be exploited here. When compared to Mills, stylistically, Rory should have more ways to win this fight. Che Mills is a striker to the core, but he’s got a dangerous guard, and he’s displayed a willingness to search for submissions frequently in the past. His best bet is to keep this fight vertical, as the striking department is the only area in which he holds a clear advantage. Whether or not he can effectively counter Rory’s relentless pace remains to be seen, but if he hopes to find success, his fists are his greatest bet. I like Che Mills. I think he brings an exciting style to the cage, and I think he has the tools to pick up some significant wins under the UFC banner. However, I believe this is a terrible match up for him. I see MacDonald’s constant aggression and diverse attack being a bit too much for the Englishman. Rory will likely showcase further refined striking here before forcing this fight to the mat. From there, it’s only a matter of time before “Ares” creates enough space to generate the proper force to score a knockout. I see the final punches being delivered from side control, and I see Mills asleep after a few shots land clean; first round is my prediction. Brendan Schaub vs. Ben Rothwell: After finding himself on the ego deflating end of “Big Nog’s” crisp boxing, Brendan Schaub has a lot to prove in this fight. The TUF alum had positioned himself nicely in the heavyweight division prior to August 27 of last year, picking up four consecutive victories inside the octagon. Then he became a victim of evident over confidence and the rug was yanked from beneath him. But while Schaub may have a lot to prove, Rothwell is likely fighting for his job. The former IFL standout has picked up a single promotional victory, while suffering a pair of losses. His inconsistent performances have left much to be desired, and if he hopes to remain employed by the UFC, he needs a win here, bad. Schaub is an interesting fighter. His striking could be polished up quite a bit, and his submission game while impressive at times seems to be something he’s willing to neglect in favor of a standup fight. When his timing is on point, he’s got a great double leg and that could very well play a factor in this fight should he catch Rothwell charging forward carelessly. Even if the fight never hits the ground, Brendan should be able to utilize his rangy attack as long as he utilizes plenty of lateral movement. This is a fight that, by all accounts belongs to Schaub; stylistically, it’s his to lose. As for Rothwell, he can win this fight, but he’s got to turn it into an extremely ugly affair. His best bet is to bully Schaub against the cage, working plenty of rugged dirty boxing, and putting his elbows to use. If he’s unable to shake Schaub up early, he could be in for a very long fifteen minutes as I see his gas tank hitting ‘E’ long before his opponents. The biggest question mark surrounding this fight is Schaub’s recovery. He was brutally knocked out in his last fight, and you just never know how a fighter will respond to that. Will he be tentative, even gun shy? It’s possible, but I don’t expect that. What I expect is the best Schaub we’ve seen thus far, and I believe he’ll batter “Big” Ben for three rounds to sweep the scorecards. Miguel Torres vs. Michael McDonald: Aside from the evening’s main event, this fight totes the most mystery. Torres is a phenomenal former champion, and McDonald is one of the greatest prospects to linger in the division. A win won’t necessarily put either man in direct line for a shot at Dominick Cruz (should he still own the belt after his upcoming rubber match with Urijah Faber, which I suspect he will), but it will certainly catapult either man to top five status. Since being rendered unconscious by Brian Bowles at WEC 42 and subsequently choked into submission by Joseph Benavidez at WEC 47, Torres has taken to fighting smart. Meaning, he’s far less aggressive and avoids risk like the plague. He’s rangy, technical and very well rounded, and that makes him a threat to anyone who can’t find his chin early. I suspect we’ll see plenty of range fighting from Miguel, whether or not he can maintain distance and dictate the pace is another story. McDonald will be forced to overcome a huge experience advantage in this fight, but if any young upstart can do it, it’s probably this kid. He’s a powerful striker with a sound understanding of the submission game and some fair wrestling skills. Is he a powerful enough individual to take Torres to the mat and control him while avoiding submissions? I honestly don’t know at this point. At 21 years old the man has a long way to go before he peaks, and as good as he already is, he’s got plenty to learn. The fact that he possesses legitimate knockout power does indeed make him a bona fide threat, inexperienced or not. I think the majority of MMA pundits have Torres tabbed as the decisive victor in this fight. I don’t have a problem with that in the slightest. That said, I think Michael is one hungry kid who’s mature beyond his years, and I suspect he’s developed quite a gameplan for this specific fight. I’m calling an upset here, and picking McDonald in a hard fought three round split decision.
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