UFC 104 Machida vs Shogun Preview: Betting Odds
Consensus among online sports betting companies is that Lyoto Machida will successfully defend his UFC light heavyweight champion title. It is represented by Machida being a 4.5 to 1 favorite.
While Machida remains undefeated, Rua has been chocked twice, had his arm broken and had some other minor injuries. While chocking or a broken arm is unlikely to happen in this fight, there is a good possibility to be knocked out. I believe Rua’s best chance is on the ground unless he is still suffering from his injuries. I am not a karate aficionado per se but I think Machida will win this one. It all comes to one simple point: will Rua get lucky first by finding a hole in Machida’s shining armor before the reigning champ can do the same?
Another important point to consider is Machida’s ability to be patient and focused waiting for the opponents to make a mistake or induce that mistake by getting them off balance. Rua on the other hand lacks patience. In my book – patience wins.
Going back to UFC betting odds, 450 is a hefty price to pay in a sport where a millisecond mistake can cost you a fight, Rua looks pretty good to win it on the ground if it gets there at +325 for a 100.