Monday, December 5, 2022

UFC 280 Betting Tips & Plays, Featuring Matt Frevola

Welcome back to the second edition of the MMANews betting tips and tricks editorial. This week is UFC 280 in what is sure to be one of the biggest events of the year.

Last week at UFC Vegas 62, we came out $126.60 ahead of what we had put $10 on every prediction, not bad, right? The biggest result of the event was our parlay hitting over +600. In what is a much tighter card, we look to replicate our success in Abu Dhabi.

In the main event, we have a clash for the ages, as Charles Oliveira takes on Islam Makhachev. The pair have been on a collision course for a while now, and now do battle for the title of undisputed lightweight champion. Far from being a one-fight card, TJ Dillashaw looks to continue his redemption arc as he faces Aljamain Sterling in one of 135’s biggest-ever bouts. 

With so many “What If’s” up in the air, let’s break down the best bets, props, and parlays for the mega-card.

UFC 280: Main Event Betting Tips

Charles Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev

Islam Makhachev
Image Credit: Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC

So first we get into the main event. Islam Makhachev tries to fulfill the prophecy told by so many of him being the second coming of Khabib. To do so he must take out Charles Oliveira, who is the reigning lightweight champion in all but name. Makhachev is the bookie’s favorite at -160, with “Do Bronx” available at a generous +130.

The fight has so many intricacies to focus on, it is easy to never be able to pick a side with full confidence. Oliveira has the more dangerous striking of the pair but is also clipped in nearly every fight. Even though Oliveira is a record-breaking grappler inside the Octagon, Makhachev may be better, and by a lot. 

Makhachev is a stifling and controlling grappler, giving very little room for his opponent to work. Oliveira needs space to work, as his grappling success depends on attacking submissions. For this, you need your opponent to engage in some manner that forces them into making mistakes to capitalize on. This isn’t something that Makhachev is likely to do.

We are going to take the Russian, Islam Makhachev by submission or decision at +140, with a small saver on the Oliveira K.O in the first round at +1100.

UFC 280 Main Card Bets

Aljamain Sterling Vs TJ Dillashaw

Aljamain Sterling, TJ Dillashaw
Image Credits: Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC & UFC on YouTube

In another title clash of epic proportions, bantamweights Aljamain Sterling and TJ Dillashaw clash in a match-up of former and present champions. The champion rightfully enters this one as a -170 favorite, with Dillashaw available at around +140.

This one is another impossibly close-to-judge encounter. Dillashaw looked good in his last bout, but not great. Beating Cory Sandhagen after a two-year layoff is an achievement in itself, but Sterling poses a different problem entirely. Beating Petr Yan was a statement win for Aljo. It was thought by many a foregone conclusion that Yan would walk through him, and Sterling forced his will upon him to gain the win.

So now we ask, can the more active champion do the same to Dillashaw, a great wrestler in his own right? We say yes, taking Sterling by Decision at +150.

Petr Yan vs Sean O’Malley

Speaking of Petr Yan, he has a much-publicized bout of his own in the card. He meets “Suga” Sean O’Malley in the biggest test of the American’s career. Yan is a heavy favorite at -275, with O’Malley at +225.

The narrative in this one has focused much on O’Malley, and whether this is too much, too soon. Logic would say yes. O’Malley though is somewhat of an anomaly in the cage. It looks as though he has added patience to his game as of late. Yan is a destroyer though. The former champion was merrily mowing through the 135lb division until hitting the roadblock of back-to-back Sterling bouts.

Petr Yan to finish the bout is our pick at +275. O’Malley backers may alternatively want to look at either a round 3 victory at +2500 or a points win at +500.

Beniel Dariush vs Mateusz Gamrot

In a high-stakes lightweight match-up, it is the old guard taking on the newly minted contender. Beneil Dariush (+162) most recently made his win streak up to seven, defeating Tony Ferguson, the biggest scalp he has claimed thus far. Gamrot though looks to be a problem. Defeating Arman Tsaryukan most recently, he may be the most underrated fighter on the UFC roster.

In Gamrot we trust as he forges onwards on his title-bound trajectory. Look for the first round to be a battle, and for Gamrot to take over from the second onwards.

Katlyn Chookagian vs Manon Fiorot

In the main card opener, the ladies take center stage. Katlyn Chookagian (+170) is on an impressive win streak, to say the least. Now 18-4, her last bout against Amanda Rivas Gaines her fight of the night honors. She takes on Manon Fiorot (-200), a French Karate black belt who is unblemished in the UFC so far.

While I would be tempted by Chookagian usually, reports of a brutal weight cut pulled me to the other side last minute. Fiorot at –200 is steep, but it’s the play. She has a higher striking output and is hit less, usually a recipe for success.

UFC 280 Prelim Plays

On the undercard, we have a ton of bouts that would be the main card on most PPVs. The play of the card could very well be taking Caio Borralho to win at -200. The Brazilian takes on Makhmud Muradov, who was submitted by Gerald Meerschart in his last outing. Borralho, by contrast, beat Arman Petrosyan, adding to a budding résumé in the middleweight division. 

UFC 280

Elsewhere, we have a clash at 205 that looks destined for destruction. Volkan Oezdemir takes on Nikita Krylov in what should be a hard-hitting stand-up affair. Oedzemir beat Paul Craig, who holds a victory over the Ukrainian he faces.

This may mean little in the grand scheme of things, but as the +140 underdog, it’s another small check in his favor. Krylov did beat a far-from-his-best Gustaffson by knockout last time out, but we can’t take too much from the bout. 

Oedzemir for my money looks closer to his best than Krylov at the moment, and we take him to win by knockout at +240.

For our last play, we look at the night’s featured prelim. Belal Muhammad takes on the undefeated Sean Brady in an effort to keep his number 4 ranking at 170lbs. Brady has looked like a fierce task for his opponents thus far. A strong grappler who has beaten Michael Chiesa and Jake Matthews en route to UFC 280. He is a -138 favorite for the biggest test in his career thus far.

For Muhammad though, this is a chance to get people talking. Now on a seven-fight win streak, it seems bizarre to have him as a +110 underdog. Former title challengers like Stephen Thomson and Vicente Luque have been frustrated with the loss caused by Muhammad’s relentless pressure. We take the proven entity to win by decision at +175.

Matt Frevola’s Picks

Matt Frevola
Image Credit: Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

This week, UFC lightweight Matt Frevola sent us his picks for the weekend’s action. He takes on undefeated Ottman Azaitar in what should be an early contender in New York at UFC 281, for the fight of the night. Follow Matt’s journey to the cage here as he makes his final preparations for war.

UFC 280 – Main Card

Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev 

  • Frevola – Oliveria
  • Jordan – Makhachev

Aljamain Sterling vs. T.J. Dillashaw

  • Frevola – Sterling
  • Jordan – Sterling

Petr Yan vs. Sean O’Malley

  • Frevola – Yan
  • Jordan– Yan

Beneil Dariush vs. Mateusz Gamrot

  • Frevola – Gamrot
  • Jordan – Gamrot

Katlyn Chookagian vs. Manon Fiorot

  • Frevola – Chookagian
  • Jordan – Fiorot

Preliminary Card 

Belal Muhammad vs. Sean Brady

  • Frevola – Muhammad
  • Jordan – Muhammad

Makhmud Muradov vs. Caio Borralho

  • Frevola – Borralho
  • Jordan – Borralho

Volkan Oezdemir vs. Nikita Krylov

  • Frevola – Krylov
  • Jordan – Oezdemir

Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs. Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

  • Frevola -Nurmagomedov
  • Jordan – Nurmagomedov

Armen Petrosyan vs. AJ Dobson

  • Frevola – Petrosyan
  • Jordan -Petrosyan

Muhammad Mokaev vs. Malcolm Gordon

  • Frevola – Mokaev
  • Jordan – Mokaev

Karol Rosa vs. Lina Lansberg

  • Frevola – Rosa
  • Jordan – Rosa

A huge thanks to Matt “Steamrolla” Frevola for taking part, we look forward to seeing the violence he is accustomed to bringing each and every fight.

Parlay Play

After a successful first-week parlay, we are going for a +752, six-fold play. 

Karol Rosa, Mokaev by finish, Borralho, Fiorot, Gamrot, and Yan. $100 to return $1040.52

That’s all for this edition of the betting guide. We hope UFC 280 is as prosperous as possible, but remember, always gamble responsibly.

What are your UFC 280 betting tips?