Welcome to the first edition of the MMANews.com betting preview, first up we have this week’s UFC Vegas 62 card.
In what could be another sleeper card, as is the trend with a lot of the UFC Apex-held events, in the main event, two rising prospects on the cusp of a title shot face off in Alexa Grasso and Vivian’s Araujo. The pair are backed up by enigmatic veteran Cub Swanson as he looks to curb Jonathan Martinez’s three-fight win streak.
The purpose of this piece, and the forthcoming editions, is to try and steer you and your money in the right direction. We have parlays, props, and everything in between to help make your next UFC picks the right one.
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs Araujo Main Event Bets
First up, we take a look at the main event. Alexa Grasso (14-3-0) takes on Vivian Araujo (11-3-0) as both women look to be the breakout contender in the women’s flyweight division. Grasso is a sizable favorite at -230, with the best prices on Araujo at around +190.
In this case, the bookmakers look to be about right. Grasso has a much more impressive résumé as of late, with wins over Joanne Wood (formerly Calderwood), Maycee Barber, and Ji Yeon Kim. Her most recent loss, in fact, is to Carla Esparza in 2018, who in turn is now the champion of the strawweight division.
Araujo, while winning more than she loses, does not have the same momentum as her opposite. Beating Andrea Lee in her only fight of 2022 is decent, but not enough to nullify her loss to Chookagian in the fight before. At 35, it feels as though Araujo has less room to improve than her Mexican counterpart. Grasso is on a firm, upwards trend, and Araujo is not the woman to stop it.
Grasso has a much better and more active stand-up game, as well as better striking defense according to the stats. Look for Grasso to outwork her opponent and secure a decision victory at a price of +130.
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs Araujo Main Card Best Bets
Cub Swanson vs Jonathan Martinez
In the second to last fight of the card, we have some fan service. Many of us fans have followed the sport for a while holding a soft spot for Cub Swanson. The dynamic and captivating Hall-of-Famer has been a cartwheel kicking his way into our hearts for well over a decade now. It looked like the show was about to pack up and hit the road for good back in 2019 following a four-fight losing skid. To the delight of everyone though, Swanson has proven those notions wrong. Now 3-1 in his last four, he still finds himself a +175 underdog.
The Beginning Of Swanson’s Swansong?
He takes on Jonathan Martinez, a Factory X fighter looking to make the leap to a household name. He is on a three-fight win streak, having beaten Vince Moraes on the scorecards last time out. Quietly earning victories over the likes of Frankie Saenz and Thomas Almeida, he should not be taken lightly. The bookies certainly believe him to be capable of winning, at a heavily favored price of -210.
Swanson in his last three appearances as an underdog has cashed twice. We look to him to do the same in this one. This is a stage he is by far the more comfortable of the two on as far as we know. His striking accuracy is slightly higher than the pair, as well as being hit on average a little less.
On paper, this is a close fight, with most of the slight edges going to the veteran. Take Swanson to cash at the +175. Alternatively, look for this one to go the distance at -138.
(stats found at ufcstats.com)
Dustin Todorovic vs Jordan Wright
In a bout that is already earmarked for carnage, Dustin Todorovic takes on Jordan Wright (a fighter with a name as noble as any on planet earth). It might be UFC Vegas 62’s shortest bout by some margin if history is anything to go by.
The middleweight pairing is something of a guarantee when it comes to finishes. In fact, Wright has an average fight time in the UFC of 2:08. Todorovic has only one decision in the UFC and looks unlikely to gain another one in this bout.
Todorovic is favored in the bout at a price of -210. It is probably fair, as managing to go the distance with Gregory Rodrigues is no easy feat. His wins, though, are against underwhelming opposition, making him far from a lock.
While tempting to pick the underdog Wright at +175, the sensible play is under 1.5 rounds at -225.
Misha Cirkunov vs Alonzo Menifield
In the opening main card bout, Misha Cirkunov vs Alonzo Menifield looks to be another knockout-bound fight. Cirkunov has tried for the last three years to get a win but to no avail. At his best, he is a powerful grappler who can overwhelm opponents, and capitalize on their mistakes to secure a wide array of submissions. The problem is that it is seeming harder and harder to get himself into these positions. The bookies have lost faith and priced him accordingly as a +180 favorite.
His opposite number is Alonzo Menifield. A hard-hitting and athletic, if not inconsistent sort, this fight is a good one for him. One thing you can bank on against Menifield is an almost unfathomable amount of pressure and hard shots from the first bell.
Menifield to win by knockout at -110 is the play, with the +240 for a first-round finish a very likely option to come in.
Prelim Picks & Plays
With the main card all broken down, let’s look ahead to some of the more interesting plays on the prelim cards. In the opening bout of the UFC Fight Pass prelims, we have former foe of CM Punk, Mike Jackson taking on the 4-1 Pete Rodrigues.
Jackson has been something of a thorn in the side of the UFC. Having put the nail in the coffin on both the Phil Brooks and Dean Barry projects, it looks as though Jackson’s luck has finally run out. Rodriguez should end this one quickly, take the -275 for him to win by stoppage at UFC Vegas 62.
The undefeated Piera Rodriguez looks to stay that way against Sam Hughes. Hughes was on a three-fight losing streak in the recent past. Look for Rodriguez to take home a judge’s decision at +120.
The final pick of the prelims is Mana Martinez. He takes on Brandon Davis in the featured prelim. What makes all the difference in this close match-up is the coaching. Martinez fights under Jame Krause, who is coming in leaps and bounds as a coach at Glory Fitness and MMA. Look for him to rebound from a tough loss to Ronnie Lawrence at -160.
UFC Vegas 62 Full Card Predictions
Alexa Grasso vs. Viviane Araujo – Grasso by Dec @ +130
Cub Swanson vs. Jonathan Martinez – Swanson to win @ +175
Askar Askarov vs. Brandon Royval – Royval to finish @ +333
Dustin Todorovic vs Jordan Wright – Under 1.5 rounds @ – 225
Misha Cirkunov vs Alonzo Menifield – Menifield first-round K.O @ +240
Raphael Assuncao vs. Victor Henry – Under 2.5 rounds @ +120
Mana Martinez vs. Brandon Davis – Mana Martinez @ – 160
Tatsuro Taira vs. CJ Vergara – Taira by Dec @ +120
Nick Maximov vs. Jacob Malkoun – Malkoun @ +110
Piera Rodriguez vs. Sam Hughes – Rodriguez by Dec @ +120
Mike Jackson vs. Pete Rodriguez – Rodriguez by stoppage @ -275
Pete Rodriguez , Piera Rodriguez, Mana Martinez, Todorovic/Wright NTGTD, Grasso by Dec. $100 to return $ 791.
Jordan Wright – Round 1 K.O @ +450
Rafael Assuncao – Submission @ +1000
Pete Rodriguez – Round 2 @ +550
Cub Swanson -Round 3 @ +1800
Hopefully, this gives you enough to go off as you prepare your monetary kicks for the event. Remember, these are just one person’s opinions. You should always first, only gamble what you can afford, and two, be the final decider of your own picks. To find out how to watch, check out our guide.
That’s all for the UFC Vegas 62 edition, remember to let us know how your bets are getting on during the event.
What are your bets for the UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs Araujo card?