UFC Fight Night 56 takes place this Saturday night from the Tancredo Neves Municipal Gymnasium in Uberlandia, Minas Gerais, Brazil, with a main event of Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Ovince St. Preux.
The headline attraction between “Shogun” and “OSP” is a battle of two top-ten ranked UFC Light Heavyweight contenders, both of whom have something to prove as they each come into Brazil on Saturday night looking to get back on the winning track.
In his last Octagon appearance in March, Shogun suffered a technical knockout loss to MMA legend Dan Henderson in the third round of their second meeting. Their first fight is considered one of the all-time great MMA bouts in history, a five-round war that Shogun also came up on the wrong side of.
In his last UFC bout in August, OSP dropped a five-round decision to Ryan Bader, a fight that snapped his five-fight winning streak, and the first official loss he suffered inside the Octagon.
Prior to the second Henderson fight, many were thinking Shogun was in the midst of a career resurgence, as he showed a bit of the “old Shogun” in his December 2013 fight with James Te Huna, a fight that Rua won by way of vicious knockout in just 63 seconds. The difference one fight can make is incredible in MMA sometimes, as prior to that bout, many were calling for Shogun to retire.
On the other hand, St. Preux is a fighter that seems to be able to beat anyone in the mid-tier of the sport, however when he faces true top-ten caliber fighters, he seems to come up short, as seen in his bouts with the aforementioned Bader, as well as his 2011 Strikeforce bout with Gegard Mousasi, a fighter OSP lost by way of decision.
Coming into this fight, Shogun is at somewhat of an advantage, as he was originally scheduled to compete on this date, whereas OSP was a late replacement for Rua’s original opponent, Jimi Manuwa, who pulled out just over one week ago with an injury.
Styles make fights, and when you look at the stylistic breakdown of this one, it has all of the makings of what should be an exciting match. At the same time, Shogun is likely to be in an exciting fight regardless of the opponent.
Coming into Saturday night, Shogun brings with him an overall MMA record of 22-9, with 19 of those wins coming by KO or TKO. Of his 9 loses, three were by KO or TKO, proving that he is a true example of “kill or be killed.”
On the flip-side of the coin, OSP is 16-6 overall in MMA, with seven of his wins coming by KO or TKO, and only one of his losses coming by stoppage due to strikes.
St. Preux has had five wins by way of submission in his career, which account for 31 percent of his victories, while Rua has only won a fight by submission once in his career — a kneebar of Kevin Randleman way back at PRIDE 32 in October of 2006.
On the other hand, OSP has never lost a fight by submission, while Rua has tapped out three times in his career.
That, in my opinion, is the key to victory for St. Preux in this fight. Standing and trading with a guy like Shogun is never a good idea. While he has been knocked out and TKO’d in the past, your odds of winning a slug-fest with Shogun aren’t that great.
It’s certainly possible, however MMA is a sport where it’s best to use the many ways of finishing a fight to your advantage by taking your opponent to the area that he is weakest. While that’s not to say Shogun is a “weak” ground fighter, it is the area where he has had troubles in the past, more-so than the striking department.
Age isn’t a factor in this one, but mileage on these guys bodies could be. Although it seems like Shogun is an older fighter since he has been competing in the sport since 2002, he’s still just 32 years old. However, his 32 years of age and OSP’s 31 years of age are separated by the fact that Rua has been in some hellacious ring wars over the years.
Another key factor in this one could be the home field advantage. Shogun is fighting on home soil in his native Brazil this weekend, and while that doesn’t guarantee anything, as his last fight was in Brazil as well and it didn’t stop Dan Henderson from knocking him senseless, I still feel that Saturday night is going to be Shogun’s.
When all is said and done, I see Shogun Rua getting his hand raised in Uberlandia, Minas Gerais, Brazil. The real question will be what he does next, as most of the people ranked ahead of him have already beaten him in recent years, and as noted, while he’s not an old man, it definitely feels like Shogun’s career is winding down. I think Saturday night will be one of his last big successful moments, as a victory over a top-ten ranked fighter like St. Preux is likely to position Rua for someone higher up in the rankings, and I don’t see too many guys in the top ten that I would favor Shogun against.
What do you guys think? Who is going to come out on top this Saturday night in the UFC Fight Night 56 main event — Mauricio “Shogun” Rua or Ovince St. Preux? Leave your feedback on the official MMANews.com FACEBOOK page, or on our official TWITTER page. You can also talk about it in our popular FORUMS.
