Luis Cruz Previews UFC 64 “Unstoppable” In-Depth

The following is a pre-UFC 64 column with MMANews.com's own radio host Luis Cruz:

A card that should deliver looking at it on paper, now has me anticipating a lot more after getting a taste from this past Tuesday's UFN 7 on Spike. Here is my breakdown along with predictions for this Saturday.

Cheick Kongo vs. Carmelo Marrero

While Marrero maybe undefeated, this match won't be pretty. This is a massive step up for Marrero and I just see him being overwhelmed by the very big and strong Kongo. Marrero won't be able to stand with Kongo and I don't see his wrestling and submissions being good enough to keep Kongo down.

Prediction- This fight ends by KO in round 1 when Marrero shoots in for a takedown and gets caught.

Justin James vs. Clay Guida

This Lightweight fight is a guaranteed ground war. Both guys excel at submissions but yet are both prone to getting caught. All five losses for James have been by submission while four of five for Guida have also ended with him being submitted. This will come down to who will impose their will on the other fighter and catch him with a quick sub. Or if one wants to try to throw the other off, they may elect to stand and try for a KO which would most likely be Guida.

Prediction- Guida by Submission in round 3.

Junior Assuncao vs. Kurt Pellegrino

In another bout which will showcase some ground fighting, Pellegrino brings his experience advantage into this fight when he takes on Assuncao. I feel this fight will be decided because of the experience factor. Pellegrino has faced some decent fighters during his time while Assuncao's opponents bring a combined record of 16 wins-24 losses.

Prediction- Pellegrino catches Assuncao late in round 1 with a submission.

Keith Jardine vs. Mike Nickels

In my personal opinion, this fight is the most lopsided fight on the card. I expect to see Jardine control the action and out-strike Nickles. Nickles has shown his standup needs a ton of work and his ground skills are on an OK-level. When facing someone as well rounded as Jardine those weaknesses will be exposed. Jardine should be facing a higher caliber opponent right now.

Prediction- Jardine wins by TKO due to strikes in round 1.

Yushin Okami vs Kalib Starnes

A lot of people might be writing off Okami in this fight and that could be a mistake. Okami has a wealth of experience on Starnes. Okami brings a pretty well rounded game into this fight. He has also gone the distance and lost some very close fights to really good fighters. Starnes showed potential during TUF 3 and holds an impressive win over a good fighter in Jason MacDonald.

Prediction- Starnes takes a close disputable split decision.

Spencer Fisher vs. Dan Lauzon

This fight is another fight in which experience will play a big factor along with skill. Fisher has remained active since 2002 and has put together a nice resume. His only recent loss came to Sam Stout in which he lost a split decision in a fight he seemingly did not look himself. Lauzon who is a newcomer to MMA, but 3-0 this year all by submission, has impressed some people in a real short time – although his level of opposition is nothing to brag about. He gets a shot very early in his career to make a huge impression on the big stage, a chance not many other people get without working their way up. He's getting the opportunity due to some injuries which occured leading into UFC 64.

Prediction- Fisher's experience takes him to a mildly easy win by way of KO in round 2.

Jon Fitch vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka

Highly regarded Welterweight, Jon Fitch returns in a bout against a guy Shooto fans would be familiar with, Kuniyoshi Hironaka. Hironaka will most likely be looking to take this fight down quickly. He's got decent strikes but will not trade with Fitch, or at least if he's smart he won't. Fitch on the other hand should be pretty comfortable no matter where this fight goes. He showed just how good he is in his last two fights, taking out the very strong Welerweight Burkman and most recently, highly regarded Welterweight Thiago Alves.

Prediction- Fitch catches Hironaka and drops him – then finishes with some brutal ground and pound for the TKO stoppage in round 1.

Sean Sherk vs. Kenny Florian (Lightweight Title Fight)

Finally the return of the Lightweight title in the UFC! This division should've been back long ago or even more, should have never left. Sean Sherk takes on Kenny Florian for the vacant title. Some people say Sherk doesn't deserve this shot since he is coming down from Welterweight and should have to fight a couple Lightweight's first. Some say Florian doesn't deserve this shot because he hasn't proven himself enough by beating any high caliber fighters aside from Sam Stout. Some think neither of them should be in this bout. My inital opinion for this vacant title, when it was announced it would be brought back, was to have a Lightweight tournament to decide a champion. The UFC has enough fighters to make a good tournament of about 8 spots, more if they wanted. They could have Sherk, Florian, Yves Edwards, Fisher, Jens Pulver, B.J. Penn (if he wanted to come down), Melvin Guillard, Joe Lauzon, Hermes Franca, Tyson Griffin, Mark Hominick, Joe Stevenson, and many more – and that's just to name a few. The tournament could be spanned out in 3 PPVs or UFNs, whatever is decided on. They could've started it earlier this year and we'd have the title bout towards the end of the year. That's my thoughts and how I would've liked to see it.

Since the match is made I'll discuss it. On paper, Sherk should manhandle Florian with relative ease and end this fight. Sherk is an ox at 170 lbs., at 155 lbs. I can't even imagine how strong he will be. Then again it could back-fire being that he doesn't have much body fat he'll be cutting mostly muscle. I'm going to assume he'll be fine for this fight. Florian has BJJ skills and uses his elbows a lot. The weakness I seen in Florian is when he faces someone with a lot more strength, like Diego Sanchez who was able to handle and completely dominate him. Sherk has never been submitted and he's faced higher submission caliber fighters at Welterweight, so I don't see that being a factor. I also see Sherk's underrated boxing skills playing a big part of this fight early on until he gets the takedown, so I don't think Florian's elbows will play a role either, that could only leave one conclusion……

Prediction- Sherk by TKO round 3 by way of ground and pound (strikes).

Anderson Silva vs Rich Franklin (Champion) (Middleweight Title Fight)

This is a fight a lot of people are looking forward to. Franklin has been completely dominant since his return to the UFC and even during his first run. Silva completely dominated Chris Leben and really shocked a lot of newer fans. People now see him as the only real threat to Franklin's title in the UFC right now. Silva is a great striker and Franklin has been rocked on a few occassions, so the thought of a Silva KO isn't out of the question. Both of these fighters are very well rounded, Franklin a little more so with submissions. I believe this fight will stay standing and while most believe Silva has a great shot while they are up, I think they will realize that Rich Franklin's striking is on another level than anyone Silva has faced up until this point. If he does get in trouble, his recovery time is amazing and he can do what he has to on the ground until he recovers. I believe Franklin's cardio will also be much better as there aren't many fighters that will be able to hang with him for five rounds and be as strong.

Prediction- While I give Silva a puncher's chance, that is all I'm giving him. I say Franklin wins this fight by rocking Silva standing and then jumping in for a submission to finish the fight in round 4. He will show why he is the number 1 Middleweight in the world without question (now that Henderson lost recently) and why he is highly ranked on my pound for pound list in all of MMA.

This should be a great night of fights. While some seem a little lop-sided, this sport always has that element of surprise and it's one of the many things that makes it the greatest sport in the world. Only a little over 48 hours away and I can't wait!

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