MMANEWS.com Affliction: Banned Picks
Chris Howie (Howie) – MMANews Head of Staff
Aaron Martinez (Palma) – MMANews Field Reporter
Brian DeSantis (Ramma) – Forum Moderator Extraordinaire
Rory McLeod (Smoogy) – MMANews Contributor
*Note* Editor in chief Matt Boone had fully intended in participating but due to a family emergency was unable to.
Fedor Emelianenko vs. Tim Sylvia (265lbs)
Howie – This could possibly be one of the biggest heavyweight fights this year (no pun intended) and for good reason. Fedor will make his return to American soil to take on the man that once was king of the UFC heavyweight division. I personally can't see the fight lasting very long and my reasoning behind that is simple: Fedor Emelianenko is a machine. He is going to out work Tim and push a pace that the big man isn't going to be able to keep up with. Fedor has submitted men bigger than Tim in the past to say this could be any different is being naive. Fedor by sub in Rd. 1
Smoogy – I suppose in some far-fetched scenario, Sylvia could come out looking great and manage to keep Fedor at arms length with jabs and straight punches. But looking at the fight realistically, this is going to be all Fedor. He has shown he can destroy bigger opponents systematically by taking the fight to the ground, then delivering heat-seeking punches until his opponent gives up an arm. Sylvia made one mistake in his last fight, but Antonio Rodrigo Nogeuira was able to convert it into a submission win. Though I'm sure Sylvia is training harder than ever for this fight, I'd expect to see a very similar victory for The Last Emperor here. Fedor via R1 Submission.
Palma – Sylvia’s strategy will be to nullify Fedor’s strengths by tying him up against the cage to avoid the takedown and to jab on a half step back when they are not tied up as to keep distance between them to avoid Fedor’s combos. Eventually there will be an opening for Fedor to either hurt Sylvia and take him down or simply pull Sylvia into Fedor’s guard. From there Fedor will probably go for an armbar and get it. I see Fedor winning towards the end of the first round via armbar.
Ramma – This is match with a likely out come, but all the possibility for an upset. Fedor Emelianenko is stylistically a bad match up for Tim Sylvia. He has great boxing skills, and an amazing grappling game. Although Sylvia will be able to use the ring to his advantage as a striker, one of Fedor's strong points is knowing the ring and incorporating it into his game plan. Sylvia has hopefully been working a lot of submission defense since his loss to Antonio Nogueira at UFC 81, but Fedor's submission game is top notch and hard to defend. If Sylvia can keep Emelianenko away and have room to strike, he has all he needs to win the bout. Sylvia has very powerful strikes and he is always one shot away from ending the fight. Fedor’s ultimate goal will to get Tim on the ground, even if he is willing to stand and trade with Sylvia, as he did with Mirko
Cro Cop, to mix things up, Tim Sylvia is likely to fend Fedor off in the first (and possibly second) round, only to be submitted sooner rather than later. Fedor Emelianenko via Submission.
Josh Barnett vs. Pedro Rizzo (265lbs)
Howie – I'm a big fan of both of these fighters and look forward to seeing them mix it up. I think looking to their first fight would be an injustice to both of these guys because of the fact it took place 7 years ago. A lot has changed since then. Barnett hovers around the top 4-5 heavyweights in the world consistently and Rizzo hasn't been a top ranked draw in a long long time. That isn't to say Rizzo isn't dangerous though because the man can bang. I don't see Barnett out striking Rizzo but I do see him controlling him on the mat and possibly stopping him by either a cut (because Rizzo is known for that) or by majority decision.
Palma – While Barnett’s standup has greatly improved in the past seven years since they last fought I still don’t see Barnett winning the standup against Rizzo. Although, I do think he can engage enough to setup a takedown. From there I don’t see Barnett submitting Rizzo but he will control him and throw elbow strikes and win points from control. Josh Barnett via decision.
Smoogy – This is a much more intriguing matchup on paper than some are giving it credit for. Since their 2001 fight, which Rizzo won via knockout, Barnett has become one of the mainstays at the top of the heavyweight division; meanwhile, Rizzo earned a reputation for being frustratingly inconsistent: losing a controversial close decision to Randy Couture before being walloped in a rematch; knocking out Andrei Arlovski, then going on to be stopped by Gan McGee in his next fight. But despite his struggles, things have looked up lately for Rizzo, who has won two in a row, including his most recent, a stoppage of Jeff Monson, who was also Josh Barnett's last opponent (Barnett won via decision). In light of these divergent career paths, it isn't surprising that the odds are heavily on Barnett's side. But with pressure on him to put on an exciting performance to stand out amongst all of the top heavyweights in Affliction, he could make the same mistake he made seven years ago and choose to stand and trade with Rizzo, whose name is still referenced by Joe Rogan when fighters land particularly brutal leg kicks. “The Rock”, at 34, still possesses knockout power, so I'm going to go out on a limb and say this fight could unfold much like the original. Pedro Rizzo via R2 TKO.
Ramma – The rematch between Josh Barnett and Pedro Rizzo is a match we've been waiting to see for a long time. Rizzo delivered Barnett’s only knockout loss to him back at UFC 30: Battle on the Boardwalk. Since then, Barnett has certainly put together a better string of wins, against better competition (such as Randy Couture, Aleksander Emelianenko, Mark Hunt, and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira) than Pedro Rizzo.While Rizzo still packs a powerful punch, “The Rock” has not had a stellar MMA career since the first fight between the two. Rizzo will try to keep the fight standing where he has the advantage. Barnett will likely trade with Rizzo for a while, but ultimately look to take the fight to the ground and secure a submission. “The Baby-Faced Assassin” will be too much for Rizzo and will either win a unanimous decision or a possible submission. Josh Barnett via Decision.
Matt Lindland vs. Fabio Negao (185lbs)
Howie – Although Matt Lindland has had the tendency to completely bore the shit out of me in the past, for some reason I have this itching feeling that he is going to come into this one as a different fighter. Negao is a dangerous threat due to the submission game that he holds and he may also be able to out strike the top ranked Lindland but Lindland will be returning to his natural weight of 185lbs and this is a fight that “The Law” will need to put up or shut up in. Because of that I believe Lindland is going to come in as the 185lbs force that he has the potential to be and completely own Negao. Lindland Via Rd. 2 Ground and Pound
Ramma – Fabio Negao comes in with a substantial stand up advantage and that is clearly where he wants to keep this fight. Matt Lindland has great wrestling (to say the least) and can put Negao on his back and keep him there. While Negao doesn’t have the greatest submission defense, it will probably be enough to hold off Lindland for three rounds. If Lindland were to finish Negao, it would be with a submission. The key to Fabio Negao winning this fight is to keep it standing and stay away from Lindland so Matt cannot tie him up and take him down. However, “The Law” will likely dominate the fight, or at least most of it, and take it on the judges’ score cards. Matt Lindland via Decision.
Palma – Not only will Lindland come into this fight with a do or die attitude, but he finally will being doing it at his natural weight of 185 pounds. Even though Negoa has some submission skills he really only likes to strike both standing and on the ground. Stylistically he is simply a bad match up for Lindland who is very hard to beat with strikes. Lindland isn’t the greatest striker but he has tons of power and is good at taking opponents out of their gamelans by tying up with them standing and softening them up before slamming them to the mat and either submitting or TKOing his opponents from there. Lindland will most likely soften up Negao for most of the first round and will probably win by submission either towards the end of the first or beginning of the second round.
Smoogy – Lindland is being tabbed as the heavy odds favorite here, mainly because he is the only one of the two with a recognizable name amongst most MMA fans, but he also poses a bad style matchup for Negao, whose most notable win is a decision over UFC welterweight Roan Carneiro. Lindland will most likely be looking to take this fight to the ground from the opening bell, and keep it there. Though Fabio possesses fight-ending submission skills, he has been controlled by stronger, more savvy ground fighters in the past, including a crushing loss to UFC newcomer Rousimar Palhares. I don't see The Law finishing the fight early, but he should be able to shake off the ring rust and come out on top here. Matt Lindland via R3 TKO.
Andrei Arlovski vs. Ben Rothwell (265lbs)
Howie – This fight would appear to have an obvious winner in Arlovski but a lot of that comes from name value. If you take a good look at Andrei he really hasn't look all that impressive in 3 years. Sure he is riding a three win streak but the wins weren't anything to write home about. His fight with Fabricio Wedum was a bore fest and he used the Jedi mind trick against Jake O'Brien and the ref stopped the fight. Rothwell on the other hand is on an impressive 13 fight win streak and is hungry to let people know exactly who he is and because of that I'm picking the underdog in Ben Rothwell to overcome Arlovski's name value and pick up the upset victory. Rothwell via Majority Decision
Ramma – Andrei Arlovski and Ben Rothwell both bring dynamite in their fists. If either fighter lands a clean blow, the other is going to sleep. Both of them will be looking for the big shot early. However, I wouldn’t call Arlovski a brawler by any means, and each of them setting up for the big shot will usually end up in neither fighter landing it. Chances are Arlovski will win the bout landing more shots than Rothwell due to his speed and taking the decision. If Arlovski comes in aggressive, he could finish Rothwell, but it is likely that “The Pit Bull” will not be able to finish the fight. Andrei Arlovski via Decision.
Smoogy – Rothwell and Arlovski both undoubtedly prefer to stand and trade with their opponents, so unless one starts taking a beating and needs to bring it to the ground out of desperation, expect this to be the nights cage kickboxing feature. Rothwell is a competent striker who uses a lot of kicks, while Arlovski is more like a traditional puncher in boxing; it comes as no surprise that Andrei attracted the attention of famed boxing trainer Freddy Roach, who will be in his corner for the fight. Despite Rothwell being on a hot streak lately, I believe we will see The Pitbull prevail with his combination of superior speed and power. Andrei
Arlovski via R2 KO.
Palma – Even though Arlovski has good submission skills he still prefers to stand and trade. Look for Arlovski to be tentative as to avoid the KO punch or kick from the kick boxer Rothwell while at the same time patiently waiting for an opening to throw his devastating right cross. Rothwell’s defense is just too sound with his ability to cover up and roll with punching combos. I have Rothwell out pointing Arlovski for the decision. While Arlovski waits for that one punch Rothwell will be throwing punch and kick combos winning the majority of the rounds.
Renato Sobral vs. Mike Whitehead (205lbs)
Howie – This will be Babalu's first fight of 2008 and only his second fight his being let go from the UFC in August of 2007. Whitehead on the other hand has been very active in the last while going on an impressive 13 fight win streak. In terms of who takes this one though I believe that Whitehead's streak comes to an end on Saturday. Babalu is an impressive 205 pounder who would most likely still be in the UFC near the top of the heap had it not been for some bad judgment in the David Heath fight. Although not the greatest striker, Sobral has a sick submission game that should be able to help top the former TUF 2 competitor. Sobral Via 2nd round Sub
Smoogy – After an abrupt dismissal from the UFC and a quick win at an obscure event in the Phillipines, Babalu's name bounced around a handful of mid-level MMA promotions before he finally got a solid booking with Affliction. Mike Whitehead has gone 12-0, including a 4-0 run in the IFL, since his last fight in the UFC, a 2006 loss to Keith Jardine. Though he may be the better wrestler, he might be looking to keep the fight standing here rather than tempt Sobral's guard. Babalu's standup is not one of his strengths, so he will likely be thinking takedown and control while dishing out blows and submission attempts in equal measure as usual. Though it wouldn't be shocking to see him stop Whitehead, I think this will end up being a war of attrition. Renato Sobral via decision.
Palma – Probably the most competitive fight on the main card is Babalu vs. Whitehead, which should also end up being a pretty exciting fight. Both of these fighters are good submission artists (although I give the edge to Babalu), both fighters are good wrestlers (although Whitehead is clearly a better wrestler), and both fighters are decent strikers (I’d say about even). The fight will comedown to a matter of positioning and control on the ground at some point where I see Babalu prevailing with a sweep by a submission attempt to top control and from there a tko towards the end of the second round.
Ramma – This is a classic grappler vs. grappler fight. Don’t look for this to be a well-rounded battle as these clashing styles usually go in one of two directions: a grappling clinic or a stand up battle. Sobral will try to take it to the ground and will get it there eventually. In the past, Babalu has rarely shown any apprehension in taking the fight to the ground, regardless of who he is facing. If Sobral has to, he will possibly pull guard. Whitehead will be right at home in the top position as the stronger wrestler of the two. He could definitely soften Sobral up with some ground and pound, then try to apply a key lock or kimura. But, Sobral is a jiu-jitsu ace who is very hard to submit and will either submit Whitehead off of his back or eventually gain the dominate position ending the fight there. Renato Sobral via Submission.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Edwin Dewees (205lbs)
Smoogy – Perhaps you're looking at the odds online and having a queazy feeling of deja vu. Don't worry, Edwin Dewees is no Sokoudjou, and after a low key year or so for Rogerio, which included a bronze medal showing at the Pan-Am Games in boxing, he has emerged looking better than ever, and has seemingly put more emphasis on his muay thai attack. Dewees is not a “can” in the traditional sense, but he is a middleweight coming in on short notice fighting someone who was a consensus top five light heavyweight not so long ago. Unless Edwin has the absolute fight of his life, its probably going to be all Rogerio until he lands a finishing blow or the ref has to step in. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira via R2 TKO.
Ramma – Rogerio Nogueira comes in as a heavy favorite against Dewees. While Edwin Dewees brings in more than a handful of submission victories, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira comes in with a stronger ground game. If Edwin is going to win this fight, it will have to be on the ground and Rogerio will be more than comfortable there. Dewees has little to no chance out striking the boxing skills of Nogueira. Rogerio has the advantage where ever the fight goes and will likely finish Dewees in the early rounds on the ground or go on to win a dominate decision. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira via Submission.
Aleksander Emelianenko vs. Paul Buentello (265lbs)
Smoogy – At the Affliction press conference, Buentello oddly enough said he would be looking for the takedown in this fight, so either he is trying his hand at pre-fight trickery, or the serious boxing skills of Emelianenko have forced him to reconsider his “Headhunter” persona. But Alistair Overeem completely abused him on the ground in their Strikeforce title fight, so its unclear what means he has to pull off this new strategy. In all likelihood this will be a dominant showing for the younger Emelianenko, who has generally been crushing his recent opponents with ease. Whether or not Buentello goes for the takedown, he is going to take some shots before all is said and done. Aleksander Emelianenko via R1 KO.
Ramma – Aleksander Emelianenko and Paul Buentello are both powerful strikers, but Aleksander is definitely the faster striker. Emelianenko has a ground game advantage as well, but these two heavy hitters will be looking for the knockout. Time is definitely a factor for Buentello who does show signs of fatigue in the later rounds. The later this fight goes, the bigger advantage for Emelianenko. I believe Aleksander’s speed will set a pace that Paul will not be able to keep up with. Buentello fell victim to Andrei Arlovski’s lightening fast hands and one would assume that Emelianenko can and will finish Buentello all the same. Aleksander Emelianenko via Knockout.
Vitor Belfort vs. Terry Martin (185lbs)
Ramma – The middleweight bout between Vitor Belfort and Terry Martin will be an interesting one; especially for Belfort who will be making his middleweight debut. How Belfort cuts the weight and adjusts to the weight cut can play a huge factor in this fight in terms of cardio. Belfort has gone on record to say that he has fight faster and lighter on his feet since the cut. Both fighters prefer to strike, so expect this to be a
stand-up war. If there is a submission, it will have been preceded by strikes. Belfort and Martin will be looking to knock the other fighter out for sure. Unfortunately for Martin, Vitor can take a shot right on the jaw and not go down for the count (see Vitor Belfort vs. Chuck Liddell). If a game Belfort shows up, his cardio will not be a factor because he will likely finish the bout in the first or second round via strikes. Vitor Belfort via TKO.
Smoogy – This fight is hard to predict on an objective level, mainly because its Vitor's 185lb debut, but he is also coming off a long layoff, and despite putting together a few wins and even capturing the Cage Rage 205lb title, a big win here really begins his comeback attempt in earnest. Martin is a very strong middleweight and has had success bullying opponents in the past, but getting into a striking war with Belfort would
be a mistake. Perhaps relying on buzz from Vitor's camp about his renewed focus is unwise, but as a longtime viewer of The Pheenom, I think he still has the natural ability to put him over the top in this kind of matchup. Vitor Belfort via decision.
