For the third year in a row, the UFC brings its early June pay-per-view offering to the city of Newark, New Jersey, as the UFC goes down at the Prudential Center. Get yourself ready and in the know with another edition of MMA News staff fight predictions.
The event will be available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view on Saturday, June 7. The main card will begin at its usual 10pm ET start time, with preliminary card action kicking off at 6pm ET.
The main event of the evening will be a second clash over the UFC bantamweight championship between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley. The two first met at Noche UFC 2 — UFC 306 — this past September, with Dvalishvili taking a strong decision win to claim the gold and become just the second man to defeat O’Malley. Dvalishvili retained the title in comeback decision fashion against Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC 311 this past January, while this marks O’Malley’s first fight since the title loss.
The co-main event of the evening will also see a title be decided, as Julianna Pena defends the UFC women’s bantamweight championship against former Olympic gold medalist and two-time PFL champion Kayla Harrison. This marks Pena’s first defense of the title since her controversial decision victory over Raquel Pennington at UFC 307 in October to win the title. On the same card, Harrison, in her second fight since jumping ship to the UFC, scored a dominant decision over Ketlen Vieira to earn the title shot.
The UFC 316 main card will also see middleweight action featuring Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer, Mario Bautista taking on the debuting former Bellator bantamweight champion Patchy Mix and a welterweight encounter featuring Vicente Luque and Kevin Holland.
UFC 316: MMA News Staff Predictions
With UFC 316 just a couple of short days away, Ryan Jarrell, Pranav Pandey, and myself (Thomas Albano) have provided our picks for the fights that make up the main card.
Below, you can check out the current leaderboard through five cards in 2025.
- Pranav Pandey (13-9)
Thomas Albano (12-10) - Ryan Jarrell (11-11)
And now, let’s take a look at everyone’s picks for UFC 316!
Welterweight: Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland
Pranav Pandey: Honestly, I’m not quite sure where Holland stands these days. His recent form has been all over the place, especially when compared to a battle-tested veteran like Luque. Sure, Holland got back in the win column with his victory over Gunnar Nelson, but truth be told, that fight felt awkward and lacked real rhythm. Meanwhile, “The Silent Assassin” looked sharp in his last outing. That said, facing someone like Holland presents a unique challenge. “Trailblazer” holds a significant reach advantage, and in my opinion, he’s going to use every inch of it to keep Luque’s grappling threat at bay. If Holland stays composed and strategic, this could turn into a frustrating night for Luque. (Prediction: Holland)
Thomas Albano: This is the fight on the main card that I’m having the most trouble picking. Both Vicente Luque and Kevin Holland can flash power. Both Luque and Holland have strong grappling abilities. Both men have had a mix bag of results in their most recent string of match-ups – and both have had struggles against upper-level competition.
This is one of those fights that could fall either way. I and others in the MMA media space probably give the edge in power to Holland versus the edge in grappling to Luque. While Holland has problems with consistency, there should be concern about Luque’s health given his losses to Joaquin Buckley and Geoff Neal. I’m not the most confident in this pick, and I wouldn’t put any money on this fight. But if I had to pick a side, while my initial gut reaction was to go with Luque, I’m going to go with the “Trailblazer” here. (Prediction: Holland)
Ryan Jarrell: This is a tricky fight for me to pick because I think Luque at his best would beat Holland. Even with his most recent victory over Themba Gorimbo, I am not sure the ‘Silent Assassin’ is still in his prime. Kevin Holland is always a wild card to me and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him go in and look like the absolute best version of himself. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see him get finished like he did against RDR. This is a coin flip to me, and I’ll side with Luque because I would imagine he restored his confidence after his recent quick victory over a rising star. (Prediction: Luque)
Consensus: 2-1 Holland
Bantamweight: Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix
Pranav Pandey: It’s an intriguing stylistic matchup. Bautista is a high-pressure, in-your-face fighter who relentlessly pushes the pace and blends his striking with slick level changes. He knows his strengths and leans into them with purpose. On the other hand, Mix is stepping into the Octagon for his promotional debut. While I haven’t seen a ton of him firsthand, what I do know is that “No Love” is a submission savant. I’m more than ready to hop aboard the hype train and see if he can put the clamps on someone as durable and aggressive as Bautista. (Prediction: Mix)
Thomas Albano: I’m excited to see Patchy Mix back in action, now competing in the UFC. During his time as Bellator champion, I always viewed him as a face of the promotion – especially during the time period he was there after PFL purchased Bellator (tumultuous as it was). He legitimately up until his official signing weeks ago, at least in my mind, was one of the top talents not signed to the UFC. And he’ll already have the opportunity to make a big statement in this one.
Mario Bautista is not going to be a pushover. Bautista has a pressure-heavy, striking-heavy style, bringing forth plenty of power and momentum into his fights against opponents who may not be ready. And considering his wins over Ricky Simon and Jose Aldo (controversial as the latter was) last year, he’s ready to face a competitor like Mix. If Mix can take advantage and bring the fight to his world – to the mat – and negate Bautista’ striking game as much as possible, he can pick up the win here. And I believe that very well can happen come Saturday. (Prediction: Mix)
Ryan Jarrell: I really like what I’ve been seeing out of Mario Bautista during his win streak. Forget all the haters that jumped all over him for his game-plan against Jose Aldo. At the end of the day he got the job done and had his hand raised. I do think Patchy Mix will be a force in the UFC and someone to contend with at the top of the division for quite some time. But there is something to be said about the octagon jitters and historically speaking, debuting fighters have not faired well when competing with the elite regardless of the division. Give me Bautista to edge out a tough fought decision and continue his march up the top 15. (Prediction: Bautista)
Consensus: 2-1 Mix
Middleweight: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer
Pranav Pandey: In my opinion, Gastelum still has that bulldozer-like durability he’s always been known for, but his inconsistency over the years makes me hesitant, especially against a power-punching sniper like Pyfer, who holds a clear reach advantage. I don’t think this will be an easy outing for either man, but if “Bodybagz” can manage the range and dish out damage from the outside, I could easily see him picking apart Gastelum, whose tendency to absorb shots has often put him in dangerous waters. (Prediction: Pyfer)
Thomas Albano: I really don’t want to come off as I’m quickly writing Gastelum off. After all, he has victories in two of his last three fights (including his most recent one), and he’s had some noteworthy performances regardless of result. But given Joe Pyfer’s momentum, and Gastelum losing a lot more than he’s been winning over the last several years, this just feels like a situation where an older fighter is being brought in as a lamb to slaughter for the younger rising star. I’ll respect Gastelum for trying to fight fire with fire, but he’ll need to mix up his grappling skills with it to have a shot in this one. And even then, I’m not sure if his pressure will be enough against the precision, speed, and power behind Joe Pyfer’s hands. (Prediction: Pyfer)
Ryan Jarrell: I think this fight is a case where one guy is coming into his fighting prime and the other guy is on the way out. If Gastelum can recreate his younger self he can definitely make this a tough one for Pyfer to win. But I just don’t see him having enough to deal with the power and physicality of his younger foe. I respect Gastelum so I will say he toughs it out and doesn’t get finished, but I expect him to lose rather handily on the judges score cards. (Prediction: Pyfer)
Consensus: 3-0 Pyfer
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Title: Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison
Pranav Pandey: This fight feels genuinely tough for me to call. Peña will undoubtedly come into this matchup riding the wave of confidence that comes with being the reigning champion, and I get the sense she’s a bit more polished across the board when it comes to all-around MMA skills. But Peña also has a weak spot in her takedown defense—an area where former Olympian Kayla Harrison is poised to exploit her advantage. Still, I believe it’s never that straightforward with the gritty “Venezuelan Vixen,” who fights with relentless heart and refuses to back down.
On the other hand, Harrison showed some vulnerability in striking during her last bout against Ketlen Vieira, yet she weathered the storm with composure. If she keeps her grappling sharp and capitalizes on Peña’s takedown defense, I believe Harrison will drag the champ into deep waters where she thrives and ultimately emerge victorious. (Prediction: Harrison)
Thomas Albano: I have been following Kayla Harrison since she won her second Olympic gold medal in 2016 – and then transitioned into the sport. She dominated the PFL scene, becoming a two-time champion and fell just short of three titles (and Larissa Pacheco is not a loss to be ashamed of). Of course, there were questions on how she’d handle the step up in competition at the UFC level – and I think it’s safe to say, after her finish of Holly Holm and her dominant decision over Ketlen Vieira, Harrison was more than delivered.
It was cool to see Julianna Pena re-capture the UFC women’s bantamweight title at UFC 307, but not everyone was happy with her receiving the nod over Raquel Pennington. I was uncertain, too. And while Pena has shown some power, I don’t think she’s going to be any match for Harrison’s judo expertise and grappling abilities. I’m also curious how the size battle will go here (Pena has a three-inch reach advantage, but Harrison has the height edge and has competed in a heavier weight class previously). Like the oddsmakers feel, I expect to hear “and new” in the co-main event of the evening. (Prediction: Harrison)
Ryan Jarrell: According to the odds, we should have a new champion when this title fight concludes. I am very interested to see how the challengers cardio holds up if Pena is able to hang in there and deliver some punishment of her own in the early rounds. At the end of the day, I do expect Kayla’s wrestling and control time to be the difference in this one. I’m not terribly confident she will finish the champion, but I do expect her to win via decision because of her elite grappling skill set. (Prediction: Harrison)
Consensus: 3-0 Harrison
UFC Bantamweight Title: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley
Pranav Pandey: Here we go again with the rematch. In their first meeting, Dvalishvili put on a masterclass in pressure fighting. It honestly felt like he had O’Malley tactically trapped from the opening bell. The Georgian’s breakneck pace and chain-wrestling blitz were overwhelming, and “Suga” looked like he had no escape route. However, I think this time around, things could look drastically different. O’Malley has likely overhauled his strategy. What has me particularly curious is the influence of Demetrious Johnson in his camp. I’m genuinely eager to see what kind of tools “Mighty Mouse” might’ve passed down, because if O’Malley shows up as a more complete, defensively sound version of himself, we might just get a tactical chess match instead of a one-sided beating.
But “The Machine” has finely tuned his blend of striking and grappling into a weapon that has repeatedly proven his dominance. I struggle to imagine him finding himself in any real trouble during this fight. Sure, “Suga” carries the knockout threat; there’s no denying that. However, I firmly believe Dvalishvili’s ironclad chin and unyielding toughness will see him through any storm. I fully expect him to weather every challenge effortlessly and sail smoothly to yet another dominant win. (Prediction: Dvalishvili)
Thomas Albano: Merab Dvalishvili has been someone who has seemed unstoppable in the division. His relentless pressure and his wrestling expertise have led him to plenty of success before, and it led to him fulfilling his potential and becoming champion the first time he met Sean O’Malley in the Octagon. I’m one of those who isn’t a fan that O’Malley is receiving a rematch in his first fight since while Dvalishvili already defended the belt four months ago.
On one hand, you could look at that circumstance and say O’Malley’s time off to develop and better prepare, combined with Dvalishvili needing to come from behind to retain against Umar Nurmagomedov may point to O’Malley recapturing the title. After all, Aljamain Sterling only defended the title three months before he faced O’Malley and lost. That said, O’Malley’s grappling hasn’t been his greatest asset, and I need to see true improvement out of him – and we haven’t had that opportunity yet. And when you manage to put on the performance Dvalishvili did against someone in the great Nurmagomedov family, my confidence is fully behind “The Machine” in this one. (Prediction: Dvalishvili)
Ryan Jarrell: After I watched Suga put away Aljamain Sterling, I wondered if anyone could stop the Suga Show at 135 pounds. Enter a machine, who literally never stops. Merab will get hit and O’Malley will have the chances he hopes to clip the Champion and potentially get a finish. But until I see it actually happen, I cannot pick against Merab. His output picks up as the fight goes deeper and his opponents have no chance but to wilt to his pressure. I don’t think O’Malley will have the answers in this rematch and I expect a very similar visual to the first go round. (Prediction: Dvalishvili)
Consensus: 3-0 Dvalishvili
That’ll do it for our UFC 316 staff picks! What do you think? Do your predictions look similar? Let us know in the comments section!
Also, you can check out the full UFC 316 card below.
Main Card:
- Bantamweight Championship: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley
- Women’s Bantamweight Championship: Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison
- Middleweight: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer
- Bantamweight: Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix
- Welterweight: Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland
Preliminary Card:
- Flyweight: Bruno Gustavo da Silva vs. Joshua Van
- Light Heavyweight: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro
- Heavyweight: Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Welterweight: Khaos Williams vs. Andreas Gustafsson
Early Preliminary Card:
- Women’s Flyweight: Ariane da Silva vs. Wang Cong
- Featherweight: Jeka Saragih vs. Yoo Joo-sang
- Lightweight: Quillan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz
- Lightweight: MarQuel Mederos vs. Mark Choinski
