Khamzat Chimaev walking into UFC 319 as the betting favorite against champion Dricus Du Plessis is about as rare as finding someone who thinks Jake Paul deserves a title shot. Champions are supposed to be favorites. That's literally the point of being champion. But sometimes, the betting world sees things differently.
You remember Jon Jones destroying Shogun Rua at UFC 128? Jones was the challenger but entered as the favorite at around -210. It was one of those moments where everyone collectively decided the old king was done and the new prince was ready to claim his throne. They were right.
But Jones isn't alone in this exclusive club of challengers who convinced Vegas they were better than the person wearing the belt. Let's dive into these rare occasions when the betting world basically said "yeah, the champion is nice and all, but have you seen this other guy?"
5 Times Vegas Backed the Challenger Over the UFC Champion
1. Jon Jones vs Shogun Rua (UFC 128)
Odds: Jones -210, Shogun +165
This was peak "passing of the torch" territory. Shogun was coming off a long layoff after knee surgery, while Jones was this freakish athletic specimen destroying everyone in his path. The oddsmakers weren't being disrespectful - they were being realistic. Jones didn't just win; he absolutely dominated, making Shogun look like he belonged in a retirement home rather than a cage.
2. Conor McGregor vs Jose Aldo (UFC 194)
Odds: McGregor -140, Aldo +120
Here's where it gets interesting. Aldo hadn't lost in a decade, but McGregor's star power and his interim title win over Chad Mendes had everyone believing the hype train was unstoppable. The betting public bought into McGregor's mental warfare completely. And then he knocked out Aldo in 13 seconds, making everyone who bet on him feel like geniuses.
3. Valentina Shevchenko vs Nicco Montano (UFC 228)
Odds: Shevchenko -675, Montano +450
Here's the thing - Shevchenko was the challenger but the massive favorite. Montano was the champion but opened as one of the biggest underdog champions in UFC history. The fight got canceled due to Montano's weight cut issues, but the odds told the story of how little faith anyone had in the inaugural flyweight champion.
4. Georges St-Pierre vs Matt Serra (UFC 83 Rematch)
Odds: GSP -500, Serra +430
This is the rematch where GSP was the challenger trying to win back his belt. GSP was the massive favorite despite being the challenger because everyone knew Serra's first win was a fluke. The betting world basically said "yeah, the real champion is getting his belt back now." They were right.
5. Eddie Alvarez vs Conor McGregor (UFC 205)
Odds: McGregor -150, Alvarez +140
Alvarez was the lightweight champion but an underdog to challenger McGregor. McGregor's star power and skills had everyone believing he'd become the first simultaneous two-division champion. He knocked out Alvarez in the second round.
Champions become underdogs for several reasons. Sometimes they're coming off injuries or long layoffs. Sometimes the challenger is just that good. Sometimes the champion is aging and everyone can see the writing on the wall. And sometimes, the betting public gets caught up in hype and momentum.
The fact that you can count these cases on your fingers shows just how rare it is. Champions are champions for a reason, and the betting world usually respects that. When they don't, it's because something significant is happening that makes everyone believe we're about to witness history.
The truth is, these cases are incredibly rare. ESPN found that since 2005, incumbent champions were favored in 85% of their title defenses The beauty of MMA is that anything can happen. Champions can lose on any given night, regardless of what the odds say. But when the betting world actively favors the challenger, it usually means something significant is happening in that division.
Khamzat Chimaev being favored over Dricus Du Plessis is about the collective belief that we might be witnessing another changing of the guard. Chimaev's undefeated record and dominant performances have the betting world convinced he's the real champion already. Du Plessis wearing the belt is apparently just a formality that needs correcting. The oddsmakers are basically saying "we've seen enough."
