Tom Aspinall says he is leaning toward Ciryl Gane winning the UFC Freedom 250 co-main event on points, though he would not be surprised if Alex Pereira knocks him out, with his primary curiosity centered on how Pereira’s body composition change will hold up over five rounds at heavyweight.
Aspinall broke down the fight on his YouTube channel, with the understanding that he will fight the winner in a title unification bout.
Alex Pereira, absolute wrecking machine at middleweight and light heavy. How does he look at heavyweight because that’s a different thing, that is, especially fighting a guy who’s naturally big and moves really well like Ciryl Gane? I don’t know how it’s going to go. There’s a lot of Chama fans out there who think this is going to be a walkover. I don’t think it is, personally. I think it should be a good heavyweight fight.
Aspinall identified the key question as Pereira’s stamina at the new weight.
I think the most interesting thing for me is when you start changing your body composition and you go up massively in weight, how does that look down the stretch in a five-round fight when you’re fighting a big guy, moves a lot. That’s the interesting thing for me. I’m not doubting Alex Pereira’s power, I’m not doubting his skill set, what I am questionable of is the change in body composition, in 25 minutes how does that look?
He added that Pereira’s flat-footed style raises further questions against a naturally bigger man.
Alex Pereira doesn’t move too much. He’s quite flatfooted, even when he was at the smaller weights. When he’s chasing someone and he’s weighed in the day before at 110 kilos, what does it look like? These are the questions that are going to be interesting for me.
If I was leaning one way, it would be Ciryl Gane on points. If I was leaning a particular way. I wouldn’t be surprised if Alex knocks him out though, either.
Aspinall has been sidelined since the no-contest against Gane at UFC 321 in October after suffering eye injuries from the accidental poke.