The UFC brings a pair of title fights to its annual October pay-per-view outing in Abu Dhabi this Saturday for UFC 321. Get yourself ready and in the know with another edition of MMA News staff fight predictions.
The event will be available exclusively on ESPN pay-per-view on Saturday, October 25. The main card will begin at a special 2pm ET start time, with preliminary card action kicking off at 10am ET.
The main event will see the UFC heavyweight championship -- and the title of baddest man on the planet -- on the line as Tom Aspinall defends against Ciryl Gane.
This will be Aspinall's first defense of the undisputed heavyweight title. He was promoted to undisputed champion after Jon Jones' (brief) retirement in June; UFC CEO and President Dana White announced the move at the UFC Baku post-fight press conference. Aspinall had initially defeated Serghei Pavlovich at UFC 295 to become interim heavyweight champion, and he retained that interim title by finishing Curtis Blaydes at UFC 304.
Gane enters this fight off a controversial split decision win over Alexander Volkov at UFC 310. Gane has previously been interim heavyweight champion, defeating Derrick Lewis at UFC 265, but he has lost in undisputed title fights against Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones.
The co-main event will see a new champion crowned in the women's strawweight division, as Weili Zhang will vacate the gold to move up and challenge Valentina Shevchenko at women's flyweight next month. At UFC 321, either Virna Jandiroba or Mackenzie Dern will be crowned the new 115-pound champion.
This will be a rematch from UFC 256, which saw Dern win via decision. Jandiroba has won five straight and has won six of seven since the loss to Dern. Jandiroba enters this fight off a decision win over Yan Xiaonan at UFC 314 in April. Dern has won her last two and three of five, entering off a victory over Amanda Ribas in January.
The rest of the main card will see a bantamweight scrap between Umar Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista, a heavyweight title eliminator featuring Alexander Volkov and Jailton Almeieda, and light heavyweight clash featuring Aleksandar Rakic and Azamat Murzakanov.
UFC 321: MMA News Staff Predictions
With UFC 321 just a couple of short days away, Ryan Jarrell, Pranav Pandey, and myself (Thomas Albano) have provided our picks for the fights that make up the main card.
Below, you can check out the current leaderboard through ten cards in 2025.
- Pranav Pandey (27-20)
Thomas Albano (27-20) - Ryan Jarrell (25-22)
And now, let's take a look at everyone's picks for UFC 321!
Light Heavyweight: Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov
Pranav Pandey: This could turn out to be an intriguing striker-versus-striker battle. Aleksandar Rakic has hit a rough patch in his last three fights, though all of them were against former champions. “Rocket” remains a dangerous competitor with sharp stand-up skills and the experience of facing top-tier opponents. Azamat Murzakanov, on the other hand, carries the aura of a knockout artist and remains undefeated, but he hasn’t yet been truly tested against elite competition in the division. That experience gap could play in Rakic’s favor. I see this fight being competitive and capable of swinging either way, but in my opinion, Rakic’s experience give him the slight upper hand to walk away with the win. (Prediction: Rakic)
Thomas Albano: This is an interesting battle. On one hand, Aleksandar Rakic has experience and layoff that he’s currently on a three-fight losing streak and hasn’t had a win since 2021. Meanwhile, Azamat Murzakanov is on an impressive winning streak and continues to score highlight finish after highlight finish. On the other, Rakic’s losses in his current skid have come against Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, and Magomed Ankalaev. Murzakanov, meanwhile, has not faced that kind of competition yet. I don’t have the greatest of feelings on this fight, but I’ll say Rakic’s experience helps get him a much-needed victory. This is as long as he keeps his distance and lands from there, while perhaps looking for opportunities to score takedowns. My fear is he gets into a firefight, and Rakic gets cracked. Hopefully Rakic has the IQ to stick to the smart gameplan. (Prediction: Rakic)
Ryan Jarrell: The last win that Alexander Rakic had in the UFC was his UD win over Thiago Santos all the way back in 2021. ‘Rocket’ has now lost three fights in a row and is desperate for a win. He has a tall task in front of him because Azamat Murzakanov is undefeated and is finishing people in impressive fashion. Rakic has the skillset to be the first man to hand Azamat a loss. But I just don’t think he will be able to get it done here. Murzakanov is used to sharing the cage with high level competition and he will be ready for what Rakic brings to the octagon on fight night. (Prediction: Murzakanov)
Consensus: 2-1 Rakic
Heavyweight: Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida
Pranav Pandey: Alexander Volkov makes his return to the Octagon nearly a year after the fight against Gane that slipped through his fingers. Even as he approaches the later stages of his career, the Russian has shown noticeable improvements in his striking, and his devastating reach continues to be a major asset. On the other side, Jailton Almeida is a dangerous and fresh challenger with slick submission skills. If he can weather Volkov’s striking storm and close the distance, I think Almeida could take this fight into his grappling world and look for a submission finish. (Prediction: Almeida)
Thomas Albano: Some are disappointed that Alexander Volkov is even in this title eliminator situation to begin with because they felt he defeated Ciryl Gane at UFC 310. Unfortunately for them and him, this is the reality he’s in. He’s going to be taking on Jailton Almeida, whose grappling game has been proven to be dangerous for a weak UFC heavyweight division. This a huge opportunity for the rising Almeida; however, if Volkov continues to look the way he has of late, it’s not going to be easy. Volkov’s reach is always an issue, and his striking has looked on point in his most recent fights. Even at his age, he’s making one last (realistic) case for securing a title shot. And that might turn to reality here. Just like the light heavyweight showdown that opens the main card, experience wins here. (Prediction: Volkov)
Ryan Jarrell: This is such an intriguing matchup. The length of Alexander Volkov is always such a tricky puzzle to figure out. Volkov looked really good in his most recent fight with Ciryl Gane which ended in a split decision loss and left a lot of people upset at the judges decision. Almeida will be a very different stylistic matchup, but one that ‘Drago’ could very well pass. Both men are in their mid thirties so the time is now or never. I don’t feel confident one way or the other and I think this fight could end in a split decision. But I’ll take Volkov to have the bigger moments and win a tightly contested fight of the night candidate. (Prediction: Volkov)
Consensus: 2-1 Volkov
Bantamweight: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista
Pranav Pandey: This matchup is a tricky one for me to predict. Umar Nurmagomedov has looked nearly unstoppable since joining the UFC, but his aura of invincibility took a hit when he faced the reigning bantamweight champion, Merab Dvalishvili, at UFC 311. In that fight, his signature weapon, the relentless takedown game, got neutralized, and his overall composure seemed to unravel. I think Mario Bautista, who in my opinion is one of the most relentless and quietly consistent fighters in the division, will try to replicate that same blueprint. His style may not be the flashiest, but it’s efficient and often enough to get the job done. I can see this fight turning into a back-and-forth battle where Bautista pushes the pace early and keeps Nurmagomedov uncomfortable throughout. In my opinion, Bautista’s work rate and pressure could be the deciding factors here, and I’m leaning toward him pulling off a gritty win. (Prediction: Bautista)
Thomas Albano: I think the common theme in this fight amongst those in MMA media making predictions is that Mario Bautista cannot be overlooked – whether you think he’s winning this fight or not. Bautista is on such a hot streak right now as he makes his way up the rankings, and if he pulls off the upset here, you have to imagine that’d earn Bautista a title eliminator – if not a title shot itself. But, Nurmagomedov’s grappling is next level, of course, and he nearly secured the bantamweight title himself by taking Merab Dvalishvili to the limit like no one has before since the start of the current champ’s long win streak. I expect Bautista to put up a strong effort but think it’s too much too quick in this case. (Prediction: Nurmagomedov)
Ryan Jarrell: The odds on this fight is a little surprising to me. Last I checked Umar was a -625 favorite which seems a little disrespectful to a guy in Bautista who has done nothing but beat elite competition. Mario is on a 8 fight win streak with wins over Jose Aldo, Ricky Simon and most recently, Patchy Mix. I am fully aware how good Umar is but I expect this fight to be a close one. Bautista is severely underrated and just might be the toughest matchup for the dominant champion. Give me Mario Bautista to surprise the MMA world and pull the upset here via split decision. (Prediction: Bautista)
Consensus: 2-1 Bautista
Women's Strawweight Championship: Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern
Pranav Pandey: Mackenzie Dern got the better of Virna Jandiroba when they first met nearly five years ago at UFC 256, but a lot has changed since then. Dern has definitely added new layers to her game and shown flashes of improvement, yet her performances still feel hit-or-miss. That inconsistency makes it hard for me to back her with confidence this time around. On the other hand, “Carcará” has been on an absolute tear, putting together a dominant five-fight win streak against some top-level competition. Despite being a bit older than Dern, I think Jandiroba is the more complete fighter at this stage, more composed, and more calculated. With the strawweight title now up for grabs, I expect her to come in with extra fire and finally get her revenge. (Prediction: Jandiroba)
Thomas Albano: This is a rematch of their UFC 256 bout in December 2020, which saw Dern come away with a decision win – though if you ask some MMA fans, they’d feel that wasn’t the right call. Most MMA media, however, agreed with Dern getting the nod, and most are expecting she’ll get the nod again when they meet in a five-round fight with vacant gold on the line. While Jandiroba is an excellent grappler, she’s going to be in for a ride to try and do battle with the expert level, world championship caliber jiu-jitsu of Dern. Additionally, Dern has made strides in her striking, albeit it’s still not the greatest, and she has the power, size, and strength to give Jandiroba a hard time with pressure. All the signs in this one say Jandiroba puts up a fight, but it’s Dern who walks away the new champ at 115. (Prediction: Dern)
Ryan Jarrell: Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba met five short years ago and now the two top strawweight fighters will vie for the vacant strap in the co main event of a very exciting main card. The first go round saw Dern win a unanimous decision and I expect the same to happen in the rematch. Jandiroba has 14 submission victories in her career, but Dern is an elite BJJ practitioner and has never been submitted in her professional MMA career. I believe the physicality and strength that Dern possesses will help her win in the 50/50 scrambles and allow her to out point her way to the victory and title. (Prediction: Dern)
Consensus: 2-1 Dern
Heavyweight Championship: Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane
Pranav Pandey: This one’s a pretty easy call for me, I’m rolling with Tom Aspinall all day. Don’t get me wrong, Ciryl Gane is one of the most skilled heavyweights on the roster, but I just don’t see anything in his overall game that poses a serious threat to the reigning champ. “Bon Gamin” has looked slick in moments, but over the last couple of years, many of his performances have felt flat and uninspired, even in victory. Aspinall, on the other hand, is a complete package - fast, explosive, and absolutely lethal wherever the fight goes. I think he overwhelms Gane early with his pressure and speed, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a quick finish. In my opinion, Gane won’t be able to survive that early onslaught for long. (Prediction: Aspinall)
Thomas Albano: It’s a shame this fight isn’t taking place in Europe. Because while I know not everyone is excited about this fight, it’s still a heavyweight title fight and it features two of the best fighters out of that continent right now. That said, there’s clearly one better fighter here, and that’s the current heavyweight champion, Tom Aspinall. Aspinall is a stud because he’s light on his feet with power in his hands. Can he take out Gane with power like he has most of the heavyweight division? Sure. But Gane is skilled and powerful on the feet as well. I see Aspinall pressuring Gane before ultimately doing the very same thing that Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones did in their title fights against Gane – get the fight to the ground. I expect Aspinall to score a takedown and finish the fight in the first round with either a submission or a TKO through some brutal ground-and-pound. (Prediction: Aspinall)
Ryan Jarrell: I am convinced that Tom Aspinall will go down as the greatest heavyweight the sport has ever seen. He obviously has the power of an elite heavyweight. But what may be more impressive is he moves like a welterweight. I just truly believe he is too dynamic for anyone in the division right now including Ciryl Gane. I will be shocked if this fight sees the second round and I expect Tom to finish Gane more impressively than Jon. (Prediction: Aspinall)
Consensus: 3-0 Aspinall
That’ll do it for our UFC 321 staff picks! What do you think? Do your predictions look similar? Let us know in the comments section!
Also, you can check out the full UFC 321 card below.
Main Card:
- Heavyweight Championship: Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane
- Women's Strawweight Championship: Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern
- Bantamweight: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista
- Heavyweight: Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida
- Light Heavyweight: Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov
Preliminary Card:
- Lightweight: Nasrat Haqparast vs. Quillan Salkilld
- Middleweight: Ikram Aliskerov vs. JunYong Park
- Lightweight: L'udovit Klein vs. Mateusz Rebecki
- Lightweight: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Matheus Camilo
Early Preliminary Card:
- Heavyweight: Valter Walker vs. Louie Sutherland
- Featherweight: Nathaniel Wood vs. Jose Miguel Delgado
- Heavyweight: Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Chris Barnett
- Flyweight: Azat Maksum vs. Mitch Raposo
- Women's Strawweight: Jaqueline Amorim vs. Mizuki