MMA News has its UFC 332 picks for all five main card fights at Delta Center in Salt Lake City on Saturday, Oct. 3, led by Natalia Silva vs. Wang Cong for the vacant women’s flyweight championship. Each fight below shows what four sportsbooks, two prediction markets and a statistical model say, followed by our own read.
Silva is the pick in the main event, Payton Talbott is the biggest favorite on the card, and the model strongly disagrees with the market on Roberto Soldic vs. Khaos Williams. Our UFC 332 main event preview covers the card details, and the weekend MMA events guide has ONE Fight Night 48 and PFL MENA 11.
How the hybrid picks work
Half of every pick is the market. We take the no-vig win probability from sportsbook lines at FanDuel, MyBookie, BetOnline and Bovada, average it, then average that with Kalshi and Polymarket. The other half is the Combat Edge predictive model, and the fighter above 50 percent in the blend is our pick.
Sportsbook lines were posted at different times between Sept. 24 and Oct. 2, so current prices may differ. Kalshi figures come from Covers as of Oct. 2 at 8:26 a.m. ET, and Polymarket prices were read on Oct. 2. Prediction market prices are shown as listed, so a fight can add up to slightly over 100.
- Silva vs. Wang Cong: Silva, hybrid 61%, market 65%, model 57%
- Talbott vs. Figueiredo: Talbott, hybrid 79%, market 84%, model 74%
- Ribovics vs. Green: Ribovics, hybrid 63%, market 68%, model 59%
- Soldic vs. Williams: Soldic, hybrid 51%, market 69%, model 34%
- Gautier vs. Kopylov: Gautier, hybrid 69%, market 68%, model 70%
Natalia Silva vs. Wang Cong, vacant women’s flyweight title
- FanDuel: Silva -205, Wang Cong +164
- MyBookie: Silva -214, Wang Cong +165
- BetOnline: Silva -210, Wang Cong +175
- Bovada: Silva -195, Wang Cong +165
- Kalshi: Silva 66%, Wang Cong 35%
- Polymarket: Silva 65%, Wang Cong 36%
- Combat Edge model: Silva 57%, Wang Cong 43%
- MMA News hybrid: Silva 61%, Wang Cong 39%
The market is unusually unified here. After removing the vig, Silva sits between 63.7 and 65.1 percent at all four books, and Kalshi and Polymarket land at 66 and 65. Combat Edge is cooler at 57 percent, and its page says the model and its Elo baseline agree on a moderate lean to Silva.
A Deadspin preview frames the style clash. Wang throws more volume, 6.82 significant strikes per minute to Silva’s 4.81, but Silva owns a 90 percent takedown defense and a 66 percent striking defense. That favors Silva staying out of trouble across five rounds, which is why our pick is Silva and why Deadspin projects a decision. The model keeps us at 61 percent instead of the market’s 65.
Payton Talbott vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
- FanDuel: Talbott -750, Figueiredo +490
- MyBookie: Talbott -847, Figueiredo +500
- BetOnline: Talbott -700, Figueiredo +505
- Bovada: Talbott -575, Figueiredo +425
- Kalshi: Talbott 85%, Figueiredo 16%
- Polymarket: Talbott 86%, Figueiredo 15%
- Combat Edge model: Talbott 74%, Figueiredo 26%
- MMA News hybrid: Talbott 79%, Figueiredo 21%
Talbott is the biggest favorite on the card, with no-vig probabilities from 81.7 percent at Bovada to 84.3 at MyBookie. Combat Edge is the outlier at 74 percent, and its page flags a divergence from the Elo baseline, which has Figueiredo at 53 percent.
Money is moving the other way from the public. Deadspin’s betting splits showed Figueiredo with 32 percent of bets but 78 percent of the handle, a sign larger wagers were landing on the underdog at that point. BestFightOdds’ picks side with Talbott on length, speed and cardio.
We pick Talbott at 79 percent. The unknown is ring rust, since Talbott says he was expected to fight Sean O’Malley in June before the matchup fell through, and the layoff adds uncertainty the market may not fully price.
Esteban Ribovics vs. King Green
- FanDuel: Ribovics -240, Green +190
- MyBookie: Ribovics -250, Green +189
- BetOnline: Ribovics -310, Green +250
- Bovada: Ribovics -245, Green +205
- Kalshi: Ribovics 67%, Green 34%
- Polymarket: Ribovics 68%, Green 33%
- Combat Edge model: Ribovics 59%, Green 41%
- MMA News hybrid: Ribovics 63%, Green 37%
BetOnline is the outlier on this lightweight bout. Its -310 on Ribovics works out to 72.6 percent without the vig, while FanDuel, MyBookie and Bovada cluster between 67.2 and 68.4. Kalshi and Polymarket agree with that cluster, and the model is lower at 59 percent with its Elo baseline pointing the same way.
BestFightOdds likes Ribovics’ work rate and body attack to wear down Green, whom it describes as a 40-year-old veteran. We agree with the pick at 63 percent. The gap between the model and the market is modest, so this is a lean toward the favorite rather than a strong read.
Roberto Soldic vs. Khaos Williams
- FanDuel: Soldic -265, Williams +210
- MyBookie: Soldic -288, Williams +213
- BetOnline: Soldic -300, Williams +245
- Bovada: Soldic -320, Williams +260
- Kalshi: Soldic 69%, Williams 32%
- Polymarket: Soldic 69%, Williams 32%
- Combat Edge model: Soldic 34%, Williams 67%
- MMA News hybrid: Soldic 51%, Williams 49%
This is the widest disagreement on the card. Every sportsbook has Soldic between 69.2 and 73.3 percent without the vig, and both prediction markets sit at 68. Combat Edge has Williams at 67 percent, and its page calls the split from the Elo baseline significant.
BestFightOdds picks Soldic on his aggression and grappling edge over Williams’ power. Our blend lands at 51 percent for Soldic, which is a coin flip. The pick flips to Williams if the model gets just over 54 percent of the weight, so treat this one as the card’s true toss-up.
Ateba Gautier vs. Roman Kopylov
- FanDuel: Gautier -245, Kopylov +194
- MyBookie: Gautier -270, Kopylov +204
- BetOnline: Gautier -190, Kopylov +165
- Kalshi: Gautier 69%, Kopylov 31%
- Polymarket: Gautier 69%, Kopylov 32%
- Combat Edge model: Gautier 70%, Kopylov 30%
- MMA News hybrid: Gautier 69%, Kopylov 31%
This is the one fight where the model and the market agree. Combat Edge has Gautier at 70 percent, Kalshi at 69 and Polymarket at 69, while the sportsbooks range from 63.5 percent at BetOnline to 68.9 at MyBookie. No Bovada line was available for this middleweight bout in the listing we read.
BestFightOdds’ pick cites Gautier’s physical advantages and finishing ability against Kopylov’s technical approach. We pick Gautier at 69 percent, the least contested read on the card.
Odds are for information only and lines move. Bettors must be of legal age in their jurisdiction. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
