According to former UFC title challenger Chael Sonnen, Tom Aspinall can't beat Curtis Blaydes on the scorecards this weekend.
The pair will collide in Saturday's UFC 304 pay-per-view co-main event for the interim UFC heavyweight championship, which has been held by Aspinall ever since his first-round knockout of Sergei Pavlovich last November.
That win came in just the second fight back for Aspinall after returning from the serious knee injury he sustained against Blaydes in 2022, which saw that UFC Fight Night headliner end in just 15 seconds.
After dispatching Marcin Tybura in 73 seconds last July, Aspinall required just 69 to send Pavlovich to the canvas inside Madison Square Garden, maintaining his 100 percent finish rate in the process.
With Aspinall having yet to go the distance in his professional career, "Razor" will no doubt look to drag him to deep waters in their five-round affair tomorrow night. And if he does, one ex-fighter has little doubt about who will have their hand raised...
Sonnen: Finish Is Essential For Aspinall At UFC 304
During a recent episode of his Good Guy / Bad Guy show alongside Daniel Cormier on ESPN MMA's YouTube channel, Sonnen gave his assessment on the first of two title fights set to play out in Manchester this weekend.
Sonnen pointed to the little cage time Aspinall has had since being struck by a severe injury against Blaydes two years ago.
And with questions remaining about how the Brit will fare in the later rounds, "The American Gangster" stated Aspinall must close the show early if he's to maintain his grip on the title on home soil.
Tom Aspinall's on one heck of a roll. People wanna talk about this fight with Curtis Blaydes (being) over two years ago. Well, that's true...but it was only two fights ago," Sonnen said. "That's not much experience. You're talking about being on the shelf for close to three years with the exception of a total of three minutes.
The odds of Tom winning are good. In fact, they're -360. The chances that Tom can win a decision are very small," Sonnen continued. "He's gotta finish him. Oh, and by the way, not only does he gotta finish him, I think he's gotta finish him in the first three rounds. ... I think that Curtis is in a better spot than Tom based on those (15) seconds they shared the Octagon.
Given his penchant for finishes and the aggressive start he made to their 2022 bout, it stands to reason that Aspinall will absolutely be looking for another early night this weekend.
Should he reach uncharted territory in the form of a fourth round, however, Sonnen is seemingly expecting the interim gold to change hands at UFC 304.