UFC 305 is now only a couple of days away, and what better way to get hyped for the upcoming pay-per-view than with some MMA News staff predictions?
The event will be available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view on Saturday, August 17, 2024. The main card begins at 10 PM ET, while the preliminary card kicks off at 6 PM ET.
The main event will see Dricus Du Plessis make his first defense of the middleweight title. Following his crowning at the expense of Sean Strickland, "Stillknocks" is now tasked with preventing the man whom "Tarzan" unseated from returning to the throne, Israel Adesanya.
Co-headlining, meanwhile, will be Perth's own Steve Erceg. Months on from a narrowly failed title bid against Alexandre Pantoja in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, "AstroBoy" will look to begin his journey toward a second shot by spoiling top-five contender Kai Kara-France's long-awaited return.
Elsewhere on the main card, Dan Hooker attempts to climb into lightweight contention against Mateusz Gamrot, Heavy-hitting Aussie Tai Tuivasa looks to get back in the win column, and Chinese fan favorite Li Jingliang makes his comeback from a two-year injury layoff.
UFC 305: MMA News Staff Predictions
Ahead of Saturday’s UFC 305 event, Kyle Dimond, Ryan Jarrell, Thomas Albano, Tyriece Simon, Andrew Starc, and Pranav Pandey have provided their picks for the five major matchups set for Saturday night (Sunday morning local time).
Below, you can check out the current leaderboard through four cards.
- Thomas Albano (16-3)
- Tyriece Simon (14-5)
- Ryan Jarrell (13-6)
- Kyle Dimond (12-7)
- Andrew Starc (5-4)
- Pranav Pandey (0-0)
And with that, it’s time for the team’s predictions for UFC 305.
Welterweight: Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates
Kyle Dimond: A few years ago, there would have been a better conversation as to whether Jingliang could wear on his opponent and use his experience to really push him in the second half of the fight. For me, the two years away won’t do "The Leech" any favors in this fight and Prates has looked absolutely wicked so far inside the Octagon. I think Prates is going to keep climbing here but I think he might need the judges to do so given his opponent’s experience and toughness. (Prediction: Carlos Prates)
Ryan Jarrell: This will be a fun fight to start off the main card. Jingliang has a lot more tape to watch as a UFC fighter and has had the more difficult opponents in the past as well. This will be the fight that shows just how dangerous Prates is in this division. I expect him to rise to the occasion and put the veteran away. I don’t expect it to be easy, but I think Prates will chip away until he finds an opening to finish the fight. Give me the Brazilian for the win late in the fight via TKO. (Prediction: Carlos Prates)
Thomas Albano: It’s been almost exactly two years since we’ve seen "The Leech" in action, but it’s great to see Jingliang finally return. The only problem? He’s taking on a really dangerous up-and-comer in Prates. Despite the layoff, Jingliang may still be one of the best 25-30 welterweight names in the world, and he is a major step-up in competition for the Brazilian. Prates is just 2-0 in the UFC after earning a contract through Dana White’s Contender Series, but he’s built up his name through knockout wins in his time in the Octagon thus far – as well as a pair of fights with the LFA.
Jingliang is a good all-around fighter, but he’s definitely better known for his striking. The problem is, while he is a great striker and has competed against some of the best, can he match Prates’ intensity with his strikes – and can he take those strikes? This will be a fun scrap that probably won’t go the distance. I’ve been wanting to go with Jingliang, but seeing what Prates has done thus far – as well as the hype about him from several of my colleagues in the MMA sphere – I’m swayed. (Prediction: Carlos Prates)
Tyriece Simon: One of the big factors coming into the fight will be whether Jingliang will struggle due to ring rust. He’s been out of action for nearly two years, and Prates isn’t an easy opponent for a comeback. The Dana White's Contender Series alum is on a nine-fight win streak, and I think he’ll be victorious on Saturday.
I believe Prates will pressure Jingliang early and make his opponent’s return uncomfortable. The Brazilian knockout artist likes to aim for the body, making his opposition drop their hands for a power punch to the head. I fully expect Prates to have the same game plan for "The Leech," and I think he’ll get another knockout in the first or second round. (Prediction: Carlos Prates)
Andrew Starc: Prates has knocked out his two previous opponents since making his UFC debut in February. 10-year UFC veteran Jingliang, meanwhile, hasn’t fought since his split decision loss to Daniel Rodriguez almost two years ago. I think the much younger, rangier and powerful striker Prates will make easy work of "The Leech" here. (Prediction: Carlos Prates)
Pranav Pandey: "The Leech" returns to the Octagon after a grueling two-year hiatus, hungry for a victory. However, the odds are stacked against him in what appears to be a challenging matchup. My concerns for Jingliang are twofold: his form after such a long layoff and his reach disadvantage. While Prates might not yet be a household name, he's an imposing figure in the welterweight division — a towering presence with a striking pedigree that boasts eight consecutive knockout finishes.
"The Nightmare" could indeed live up to his moniker for Jingliang, as his clinical striking ability is nothing short of devastating. Unfortunately, I struggle to see a scenario where the Chinese veteran emerges victorious in this bout. (Prediction: Carlos Prates)
Consensus: 6-0 Carlos Prates
Heavyweight: Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Kyle Dimond: When you look at Rozenstruik’s record, he tends to only lose against the very top heavyweights in the division. Everything about this fight is pointing me toward Tuivasa being caught with a huge counter as he tries to pressure his opponent. If this was an Apex main event, my pick would be solidified in solid gold, but something about Perth, Australia, is tempting me the other way. In the interest of picking an underdog on this main card, I’m going all in on "Bam Bam" in the hopes that he can raise the roof. (Prediction: Tai Tuivasa)
Ryan Jarrell: This will be a very fun fight for as long as it lasts. Tuivasa is fighting on home turf and that should give him some extra juice to potentially pull off the upset. "Bigi Boy," however, is the safe play here. He is more technical and carries a ton of power to go with his technicality. I expect him to avoid the early surge from Tuivasa and catch him at some point late in the first or second and finish this fight. (Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik)
Thomas Albano: Just like how I think this fight will play out, I’m not making my analysis and prediction long. These are two heavyweight knockout artists who are struggling to show they still belong in the contender rankings. Both have had their highs and lows over the last five years or so in the UFC, and both are going to come out flashing their power, looking to capitalize on the first mistake to get the devastating knockout. While Rozenstruik has had ups-and-downs of late, he’s coming in with two finishes in his last three fights. It’s been much tougher for Tuivasa, who has lost four straight, and given what "Bigi Boy" can do to people, it’s probably going to get rougher for him. (Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik)
Tyriece Simon: Tuivasa finds himself in yet another must-win bout against a dangerous opponent. "Bam Bam" is on a four-fight skid and will lose his spot in the top 10 of the rankings with a defeat at UFC 305. Rozenstruik is currently the betting favorite to win, and I think he has a great chance.
An interesting aspect of this fight is that "Bigi Boy" has only lost to fighters with a reach advantage over him. I think he’ll try to attack Tuivasa's legs in the first round and look for a hook or a short jab when his opponent tries to come within distance. I don’t believe the Australian heavyweight is exceptionally more agile than Rozenstruik, which could make it challenging to land a significant punch for a knockout. Tuivasa is tough and has the power to get a knockout, but I lean toward Rozenstruik being victorious. (Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik)
Andrew Starc: Both fighters are coming into this with less than spectacular records – particularly Tuivasa, who’s lost his last four. Yes, those came against the best of the division, but I’m not sure even a home crowd is going to propel Tuivasa to recapture that form that saw him make a run for the title two years ago.
He is, however, likely fighting for his UFC career here. That said, it’s probably going to be a slugfest that won't see the second round, and I can’t see Tuivasa coming out on top. (Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik)
Pranav Pandey: Expect both fighters to be hunting for that perfect, fight-ending shot right from the start. Given that both are navigating through a challenging phase in their careers, they may approach this bout with extra caution. However, I think Tuivasa's recent string of losses has served as a wake-up call. He's the sharper, more precise striker, and his agility could give him the edge. But he’ll need to be wary of charging in recklessly against a counter-puncher like Rozenstruik, who thrives on punishing his opponents' mistakes.
This fight isn’t likely to see a second round — in fact, I’d bet on a finish within the first. If "Bam Bam" plays his cards right, he could very well redeem himself and get back on track. (Prediction: Tai Tuivasa)
Consensus: 4-2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Lightweight: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker
Kyle Dimond: This one is probably the main card fight I’m the most confident in and that’s no slight on Hooker, who I love watching. I’m just super high on Gamrot and believe his style is a problem for "The Hangman." Hooker is a good striker and has some dangerous submission threats, hence the nickname, but "Gamer" is just so relentless that it makes it hard to capitalize on these opportunities. Tee Polish fighter will need to be careful of walking into a knee or guillotine choke, but I think his pressure isn’t going to give Hooker too much time to set this up, even if he has moments on the feet, like the Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner fight. (Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot)
Ryan Jarrell: This is a tough matchup to call. Both of these guys are extremely dangerous fighters. The length of Hooker worries me from a betting perspective, because he holds a sizable advantage in both reach and height. Having said that, Gamrot will win this if he fights smart. That’s what I am expecting to happen and we should see "Gamer" notch his eighth win in the UFC. (Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot)
Thomas Albano: With everyone else in the lightweight title picture outside of injured champion Islam Makhachev and #1 contender Arman Tsarukyan coming off a loss, this fight presents a huge opportunity for Gamrot. With Tsarukyan saying he wants to have an interim title fight before the year is over, a win for "Gamer" here could clinch him the spot as the opponent in that potential fight if he comes out unscathed. That said, Hooker isn’t the easiest opponent.
"The Hangman" has come up short against top competition in the division (ex: Makhachev, Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler), but he’s gritty, durable, a tactician, and an entertaining striker who can put on a strong performance at any time. And while Gamrot has a clear wrestling advantage, it shouldn’t be discredited that Hooker has good wrestling defense that could force the fight standing at times. And the longer the fight is on the feet, the better Hooker’s chances. That said, Gamrot’s wrestling pedigree is probably going to be too much. This one should be a fun war, but I lean to ward the Polish contender getting a clear win and a big opportunity next. (Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot)
Tyriece Simon: Hooker has finally found his groove in his last two fights after four years of inconsistency. His last win over Jalin Turner showed he’s still a formidable opponent in the lightweight division. That said, Gamrot presents a dynamic matchup that I think will give 'The Hangman' issues.
The "Gamer’s" ability to mix up his striking with takedown attempts will be a key to the fight. Hooker is a difficult opponent to finish, but I think he can lose Saturday night by being outworked to a decision loss. The threat of takedowns could open "The Hangman" up for Gamrot to land some significant strikes and sway the judges in terms of activity. The fight can go either way, but I believe Gamrot will win on the scorecards. (Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot)
Andrew Starc: I can’t see Hooker stopping Gamrot’s relentless wrestling. Of course, there’s always a chance the Kiwi could snag a KO via a well-timed knee or with the devastating striking he’s known for. Hooker certainly has 'the dog in him', as they say, having shown that in his last outing against Jalin Turner. But that win was over a year ago, during which time Gamrot has racked up victories over Rafael Fiziev and Rafael dos Anjos. The Polish fighter will likely get the decision here. (Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot)
Pranav Pandey: This fight promises to be a gritty battle to determine who can outlast the other. By all accounts, Gamrot appears to have the upper hand, with his wrestling style posing a formidable challenge for most opponents. However, Hooker’s defensive wrestling is robust enough to give him a legitimate shot at victory. "The Hangman" also wields sharp offensive leg strikes, a crucial weapon for deterring takedowns and punishing wrestlers who dare to shoot in.
If Hooker can keep the fight upright for an extended period, he has the potential to outstrike Gamrot or even secure a stoppage. That said, while striking may not be Gamrot’s forte, "Gamer" possesses an ironclad toughness, and his resilience could very well be the key to grinding out a win if the fight goes the distance. All factors considered, I believe Hooker's previously broken arm might hinder his ability to throw strikes with full force, opening the door for Gamrot to capitalize. This weakness could be the very advantage "Gamer" need to turn the tide in his favor and claim the win. (Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot)
Consensus: 6-0 Mateusz Gamrot
Flyweight: Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg
Kyle Dimond: I think it’s gone under the radar how utterly brilliant this fight is. I think maybe people have forgotten just how close Kara-France has been to some huge victories in the past. He’s a massive test for Erceg and I’m surprised to see him as the clear underdog. That being said, I do think Erceg might have this one. Both men have got dangerous hands but I believe the Australian might be able to win the exchanges by being a bit tighter and not extending like Kara-France will. It’s another tough one to call though and I can see it being a very close decision at the end of three rounds. (Prediction: Steve Erceg)
Ryan Jarrell: If you didn’t believe in "AstroBoy" before the Pantoja fight, I bet you do now! Erceg is the real deal and is incredibly well rounded as a fighter. Kara-France is a great fighter and brings a lot of experience into this fight. I just believe the length and versatility that his Australian opponent brings to the table will be the difference. Give me Michael Scott to win a decision here. (Steve Erceg)
Thomas Albano: Kara-France has consistently been a bridesmaid, never the bride, always falling a fight short of receiving an undisputed title opportunity. Meanwhile, this will mark Erceg’s first fight since falling short in a title fight with Alexandre Pantoja – a fight in which had it not been for some bad fifth-round IQ, Erceg could have pulled off the major upset and be the champion now.
The two are going to look to deliver, and this will probably be one of the best fights of the night. Kara-France has some great striking and has experience against some of the best fighters in the division. Having said that, Erceg nearly beat the best of them all, and his short run in the UFC so far has shown that he has great striking himself, as well as solid wrestling. The Australian is slowly developing into an all-around great flyweight (to the point Pantoja, following their fight, said he will be the UFC flyweight champion one day), and that’s why I’m leaning to him in this three-round battle. (Prediction: Steve Erceg)
Tyriece Simon: This fight is the hardest to predict on the main card. Erceg is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Pantoja, as the champion outperformed him with his grappling and striking. I’m not sure Kara-France will have a similar game plan, but he generally doesn’t commit to as many takedowns in a fight as the champion. I think both fighters will try to stand with each other, and I lean toward this benefiting Erceg the most.
He’ll have the height and reach advantage to keep his opponent at a distance with his jab. "AstroBoy" must be mindful of Kara-France’s feints, as it caused him trouble in fights against the likes of Matt Schnell. However, I think Erceg’s reach advantage, hand speed, and power could lead to him doing enough to edge out a decision win. (Prediction: Steve Erceg)
Andrew Starc: Kara-France is on a two-fight skid and will be facing a man fighting on home turf in Erceg. "Don't Blink" hasn’t fought in over a year, having last lost via split decision to Amir Albazi. Half of the much more active Erceg’s wins have come via submission and he's also a very good striker to boot. While he’s not nearly as experienced as Kara-France, I think the Aussie will outmatch the Kiwi here. (Prediction: Steve Erceg)
Pranav Pandey: This matchup has all the ingredients for an intense and tightly fought battle, given that both fighters are nearly evenly matched in terms of skill and versatility. While Kara-France brings a wealth of experience and a polished striking game to the table, his return after more than a year out of the Octagon could be a significant factor in this fight. However, Kara-France undoubtedly packs more firepower than his opponent.
On the other hand, Steve Erceg comes in with fresher legs and momentum. "Astroboy" showcased remarkable prowess and tenacity in his title fight against champion Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 301, which speaks volumes about his potential in this clash. The Aussie undoubtedly secures a distinct edge with his grappling skills, and if he can withstand "Don't Blink's" relentless assault, I envision him emerging victorious in this fight. (Prediction: Steve Erceg)
Consensus: 6-0 Steve Erceg
UFC Middleweight Title: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya
Kyle Dimond: This certainly feels like one of the biggest fights of the year on paper, even if the hype does seem to have died down a bit as of late. It’s a fight that I could honestly go back and forth on for hours. Adesanya is notoriously very effective against larger, more physical opponents who want to walk him down, land big shots and get a hold of him. The difference between Du Plessis and the likes of Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori is that he’s so much more unique. His movement is totally the opposite of their very traditional and plodding styles.
That’s the million-dollar question for me: can Du Plessis make Adesanya second guess himself? Sean Strickland did it by staying in his face and being defensively sound, and I wonder whether the champion can do it with his awkward timing. The big thing that does concern me on Du Plessis’ side is offensively, is Strickland landed on Adesanya because he’s so efficient and consistent. Du Plessis, on the other hand, tends to throw a lot with some explosive but wild technique. This is where I think Adesanya can win this fight. While the South African is far from predictable, he also fights with recklessness. Admittedly, I have flipped on this being a winning or losing factor for him throughout this week alone. (Prediction: Israel Adesanya)
Ryan Jarrell: This fight is way bigger for the legacy of Adesanya than it is for Du Plessis. The former champion cannot afford to lose this fight if he wants to remain behind Anderson Silva on the all time 185-pound list. I understand how dangerous "Stillknocks" is and how tricky of a fighter he is to figure out. But he leaves a lot of openings and is no where near as technical as Adesanya is. Because of that, and the fact that the Nigerian-New Zealander’s back is against the wall in this fight, I just can’t pick against him. I believe we will see the best version of Adesanya at UFC 305 and he will catch the champion to reclaim the title. (Prediction: Israel Adesanya)
Thomas Albano: Though several people may feel that this fight’s hype has been lost – given everything from Adesanya’s loss to Strickland and year-long layoff – I don’t think that’s completely the case. He and Du Plessis still are heated with one another, and what is not to love about a guy who is looking to show why he is the true king of the division taking on someone who has been twice before – and someone who is looking to join Randy Couture as the only ones to win the same UFC division title three times.
Du Plessis’ biggest question mark as he rose up through the UFC ranks has been his cardio. He is a fighter who is all about bringing it early and getting the job done early – and that left people concerned about him as fights went past the first round. Some of that, however, seemed to be dispelled upon his fight with Strickland. He’s never dealt with someone who can be awkward, free-flowing, and creative with his striking like Adesanya either. And the former champ's opponent history versus Strickland’s? It may be a valuable argument that he’s taking on a bigger challenge in his first defense than when he challenged for and won the title at UFC 297 earlier this year.
But, Adesanya probably has more to lose here. It’s been a year since we’ve seen him in action. The reason for the layoff was a needed rest, as he’s just 4-3 in his last seven fights. And it’s a very reasonable argument to say that Adesanya’s performances over the last few years have (for the most part) not matched up to his previous outings. We know what his potential is, but can he fulfill it against someone who is younger and hungry to stake his claim as the best 185lber in the UFC, or even in all of MMA (especially given plenty of people still feel Du Plessis should have been given a loss to Strickland)? Plus, the South African has his own power, aggression, and awkwardness that could spell some trouble for “The Last Stylebender.”
Given the bad blood and high stakes in this one for both men, this one isn’t going to go to the scorecards. Either Du Plessis is going to use his striking and pace the fight effectively to get the win, or Adesanya is going to bring the creative destruction he is known for to claim back his throne. Given how long I’ve been on the DDP hype train, as much as I enjoy watching Adesanya fight and Du Plessis is actually the underdog, I am going to go with the former. (Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis)
Tyriece Simon: I truly believe this fight is Adesanya’s to lose. “The Last Stylebender” is the better striker and will have the reach advantage to pick apart the champion at a distance. He can control the fight if he can use his footwork to avoid getting into close exchanges with his rival. However, an important factor in the fight will be if Adesanya's inactivity from the competition will affect him. He seems like he is in the best shape of his career. That said, Du Plessis should aim to test if "The Last Stylebender" has a little ring rust by putting him on his back foot early with feints and kicks to the body.
The former middleweight champion sometimes tends to lean back to avoid strikes, so "Stillknocks" could find success doubling up on a jab and finish with his hook, head kick, or a takedown attempt. Du Plessis will need to pressure and mix up his offense to throw off the Nigerian-born, New Zealand-based kickboxer. Ultimately, I believe "The Last Stylebender" will get his hand raised by countering his opponent for a knockout or winning a decision. (Prediction: Israel Adesanya)
Andrew Starc: Du Plessis has made a point of saying Adesanya has nothing to fight for anymore, but I disagree – particularly with respect to this matchup. The desire to regain the title notwithstanding, I feel Adesanya’s motivation to get back at Du Plessis for his ‘African champion’ comments will see him extra focused on the win here – not to mention he’ll be wanting to make right for his last performance.
Adesanya has also had a long layoff to shake off the burnout he claimed to be suffering after a busy few years. It really could go either way though, and it's hard to tell how Adesanya will handle Du Plessis’ unconventional style, but I think the Kiwi will get it done by decision. (Prediction: Israel Adesanya)
Pranav Pandey: To my mind, this fight stands as a quintessential 50-50 showdown, teetering on the edge of unpredictability. We can expect some heavy strikes to fly in the opening rounds, as both fighters will be eager to assert dominance early. The outcome of this fight largely depends on the adjustments Adesanya made during his hiatus. "The Last Stylebender" is a master at maintaining range while delivering with surgical precision. However, Du Plessis’ unconventional and relentless approach, where he thrives on getting in his opponent’s face, suggests we’re going to see plenty of close-quarters exchanges. In these moments, I believe the reigning champion could leverage his power effectively.
Izzy has faced this kind of challenge time and again throughout his career, consistently emerging victorious against formidable power punchers. I’m confident he’s done his homework and won’t rush in, instead dictating the pace of the fight with his precise, calculated approach. Adesanya seems poised to wear down "Stillknocks" in the later rounds, using his signature touch-and-go point fighting. Whether it’s through a late finish or a dominant unanimous decision, I foresee "The Last Stylebender" having his hand raised on Saturday. (Prediction: Israel Adesanya)
Consensus: 5-1 Israel Adesanya
That’ll do it for our UFC 305 staff picks! What do you think? Do your picks look similar? Let us know in the comments section! Also, you can check out the full UFC 305 card below.
Main Card:
- Middleweight Championship Main Event: Dricus Du Plessis (C) vs. Israel Adesanya
- Flyweight Co-Main Event: Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg
- Lightweight: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker
- Heavyweight: Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
- Welterweight: Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates
Preliminary Card:
- Heavyweight: Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker
- Featherweight: Joshua Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos
- Women's Flyweight: Casey O'Neill vs. Luana Santos
- Featherweight: Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns
Early Preliminary Card:
- Lightweight: Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes
- Welterweight: Song Kenan vs. Rick Glenn
- Flyweight: Stewart Nicoll vs. Jesus Aguilar
Be sure to keep it right here on MMANews.com tomorrow for all the results, highlights, and updates on UFC 305!