Alex Pereira opens as a +111 underdog to Sergei Pavlovich in the five-round heavyweight co-main event at UFC 335 on Dec. 12, according to BetOnline’s opening lines. Pavlovich opened at -130, which implies roughly a 56.5 percent chance to win.
The market has leaned further his way since. As of Sunday, public money had moved Pavlovich to a -164 favorite, a 62 percent implied win probability, MMA Fighting reported. DraftKings Sportsbook opened in a similar range, with Pavlovich at -135 and Pereira at +114, per DK Network.
Why the market leans Pavlovich
Pereira is coming off a second-round TKO loss to Ciryl Gane in his heavyweight debut, an interim title fight at UFC Freedom 250 on the White House lawn in June. Pavlovich (21-3) has won three straight, most recently a 39-second knockout of Tallison Teixeira in May. He is ranked No. 2 at heavyweight, one spot ahead of Pereira.
The stakes are clear. Gane is now the undisputed champion and faces Josh Hokit in November, after Dana White gave Hokit the title shot over a Pereira rematch. A win over Pavlovich puts Pereira back in the title conversation. A loss leaves him 0-2 at heavyweight.
The rest of the UFC 335 board
Charles Oliveira opened as a -172 favorite over Diego Lopes in the BMF title main event, the biggest favorite of the three bouts announced so far. Lopes opened at +146 for his lightweight debut. That line has tightened, with Oliveira down to -148 and Lopes at +126, per MMA Fighting.
Joe Pyfer opened at -130 against Bo Nickal (+111) in a middleweight bout, and that number has barely moved. Pyfer has won four straight, including a March knockout of Israel Adesanya. Nickal has won two in a row, most recently stopping Kyle Daukaus at UFC Freedom 250 in June. The full UFC 335 lineup lands at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
