UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan lands Saturday, October 10, at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, and the five main card fights are tighter than the prices suggest. Prelims start at 5 p.m. ET, the main card at 8 p.m. ET, all on Paramount+. Here are the odds and our pick for every main card bout.
The headliner is a coin flip. Brendan Allen edges Christian Leroy Duncan in our blend by less than a point, and the biggest split between the market and the model is Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III, where the two sit 17 points apart. Camilo and Godinez are the clearest picks at 61 percent each. Our Allen vs. Duncan preview covers the full card, and the MMA events this week roundup has the rest of the weekend.
How the hybrid picks work
Each pick is a 50/50 blend of market and model. The market number averages the no-vig sportsbook lines with Kalshi and Polymarket where those exist. The books are MyBookie (posted October 8), plus FanDuel and BetRivers from RG’s October 7 price check. Kalshi only had a market for the main event, and Polymarket was read Saturday. The model is the Combat Edge forecast frozen on October 4.
Book lines were posted on different days and may have moved. Prediction market prices are shown as listed and can total more than 100. Summary percentages are win probability for the fighter we picked.
- Brendan Allen over Christian Leroy Duncan: hybrid 51, market 53, model 48
- Matheus Camilo over Jai Herbert: hybrid 61, market 63, model 59
- Loopy Godinez over Ketlen Souza: hybrid 61, market 67, model 55
- Kai Kamaka III over Andre Fili: hybrid 51, market 43, model 60
- Malcolm Wellmaker over Otari Tanzilovi: hybrid 59, market 65, model 52
Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
- MyBookie: Allen -126, Duncan -101
- FanDuel: Allen -147, Duncan +114
- BetRivers: Allen -137, Duncan +110
- Kalshi: Allen 52, Duncan 48
- Polymarket: Allen 54, Duncan 47
- Combat Edge model: Allen 48, Duncan 52
- MMA News hybrid: Allen 51, Duncan 49
MyBookie is the outlier. Stripped of vig, it gives Allen 52.6 percent, while FanDuel is at 56.0 and BetRivers at 54.8. The model leans the other way, with Duncan at 52 percent even though Combat Edge’s Elo-only number has Allen at 57.
The case for Duncan is the striking. According to RG, he lands 4.45 significant strikes a minute at 58 percent accuracy while absorbing 2.36, and he has a four-inch reach edge. It is his first UFC main event, and the run behind it includes a decision over Jared Cannonier at UFC Oklahoma City. The case for Allen is the grappling. RG lists 14 of his 27 wins as submissions and puts Duncan’s takedown defense at 58 percent, and five rounds give Allen time to find an opening.
We take Allen, but barely. Give the model about 62 percent of the weight instead of half and the pick flips, so treat this as a coin flip.
Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert
- MyBookie: Camilo -197, Herbert +152
- FanDuel: Camilo -204, Herbert +158
- BetRivers: Camilo -200, Herbert +155
- Polymarket: Camilo 64, Herbert 37
- Combat Edge model: Camilo 59, Herbert 41
- MMA News hybrid: Camilo 61, Herbert 39
Rare agreement. The three books land within a point of each other after vig, Polymarket is right with them, and the model is only four points lower on Camilo.
RG has Camilo knocking out Nazim Sadykhov in 91 seconds in June. Herbert is 38 and has 10 knockouts in his 14 wins, and he got rocked early before stopping Mandel Nallo at UFC Winnipeg in April. That chin question is why the price is not shorter. We take Camilo, and no weighting of the model flips it.
Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza
- MyBookie: Godinez -255, Souza +192
- FanDuel: Godinez -244, Souza +186
- Polymarket: Godinez 68, Souza 33
- Combat Edge model: Godinez 55, Souza 45
- MMA News hybrid: Godinez 61, Souza 39
BetRivers had no line on this fight, so there are two books here and no Kalshi market. The 12-point gap between market and model is one of the widest on the card. Books and Polymarket put Godinez near 67 percent, while Combat Edge sees a much closer fight at 55.
Godinez is ranked eighth at strawweight on UFC.com. RG credits her with 2.99 takedowns per 15 minutes and a 77 percent takedown defense against 54 percent for Souza, though Tatiana Suarez submitted her in April. Souza has nine knockouts in 17 wins and stopped Ariane Carnelossi in 94 seconds in June, which is the upset path. Even with all the weight on the model, Godinez stays ahead, so she is the pick.
Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III
- MyBookie: Fili -153, Kamaka +120
- FanDuel: Fili -149, Kamaka +118
- BetRivers: Fili -156, Kamaka +125
- Polymarket: Fili 58, Kamaka 43
- Combat Edge model: Fili 40, Kamaka 60
- MMA News hybrid: Fili 49, Kamaka 51
This is the biggest disagreement on the card. All three books and Polymarket have Fili around 57 percent. The model has Kamaka at 60, and the Elo-only number agrees with it at 54, so this is not just a quirk of the full model.
According to RG, Fili is 36 and has lost two straight, including a second-round knockout to Vinicius Oliveira in June. Kamaka was knocked out in the first round by Luke Riley in July and absorbs 6.03 significant strikes a minute. We lean Kamaka by the slimmest of margins, and the pick flips to Fili if the model gets less than 42 percent of the weight. Call it a coin flip.
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi
- MyBookie: Wellmaker -226, Tanzilovi +172
- FanDuel: Wellmaker -233, Tanzilovi +180
- BetRivers: Wellmaker -222, Tanzilovi +170
- Polymarket: Wellmaker 66, Tanzilovi 35
- Combat Edge model: Wellmaker 52, Tanzilovi 48
- MMA News hybrid: Wellmaker 59, Tanzilovi 41
Wellmaker is a heavy favorite on every board, with no-vig numbers between 65 and 66 percent.
The price asks a lot of a fighter on a skid. RG notes Wellmaker has lost his last two, a decision to Ethyn Ewing in November and a second-round submission to Juan Diaz in May, with a 47 percent takedown defense. Tanzilovi averages 4.50 takedowns per 15 minutes with an 86 percent takedown defense, and has seven knockouts among his wins. Even at full model weight Wellmaker stays ahead, so he is our pick, with the underdog price the more interesting number.
Odds are for information only and lines move before the fights. You must be of legal age where you live. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
